Flood in Indiana, March 6, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
352 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023

A weak system will bring chances for rain showers tonight through
Monday evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible. Cooler and
drier conditions will follow Tuesday through Thursday, with rain
and snow chances returning to end the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023

Upper level shortwave moving eastward over the upper Midwest has
brought enough instability and moisture over-running ahead of a
warm front currently as of 08z over central IL has brought rain
showers and even some elevated convection over northern IL and a
few of these clusters will move into the western parts of the CWA.
Did go ahead and add some isolated thunder to the forecast for
the next several hours to address that potential.

The warm front will move east into the area by late morning and
will allow for further WAA with veering winds which will give us
that nice warm up today with high temps ranging near 50 along the
Michigan border to the mid 60s in the far southern tier counties
of the CWA. The far northeastern parts of the CWA (i.e Hillsdale,
Branch Counties in Michigan) may struggle to get out of the upper
40s.

Behind the warm front this afternoon primarily the far northwestern
reaches of the CWA may see the potential for a few rumbles of
thunder with the better instability. A brief downpour and a few gusty
winds would be the main impacts with any of the thunderstorms
that do develop.

This evening northwesterly flow aloft and at the surface
associated with a weak cool front with this disturbance will
bring an influx of cooler and drier airmass into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023

The cooler airmass with near normal temperatures will remain in
place over the next couple of days through Friday. Current normal
high temperature values for Fort Wayne is 43 and South Bend is 42.

A Northwest Pacific originating system will move across the upper
Plains and into the Great Lakes by late Thursday night and early
Friday morning. This looks to bring a wintry mix to the area for
Friday into Saturday. Late Saturday with the passage of a cold
front will bring colder temperatures and any remaining
precipitation should switch to primarily snow showers into
Sunday. This system is still several days out so not a whole lot
of confidence in the details yet. So in the next few days would
expect the forecast to evolve with timing and exact precipitation
type.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 100 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2023

A weak shortwave and surface low will move through the area
tonight into Monday, bringing chances for rain showers and some
lower ceilings/visibilities to the terminals this period. VFR
conditions will prevail as the low levels are fairly dry, at least
through this afternoon/evening in the wake of the system.
Otherwise, expect winds to strengthen out of the ESE and gradually
shift to the northwest. MVFR conditions will develop this
afternoon, maybe briefly lower visibility with any more moderate showers
this morning at KSBN, possibly becoming IFR tonight within the CAA.
Still lower confidence as models appear to be struggling with the
moisture profiles-so kept things MVFR this issuance. Otherwise, a
rumble of thunder is possible this morning at KSBN with elevated
convection moving in, but confidence wasn't high enough to
include in the TAF.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...Andersen
LONG TERM...Andersen
AVIATION...MCD

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
309 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2023

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-062015-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
309 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2023 /209 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-062015-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
309 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.