Scattered thunderstorms developed in the afternoon of July 24, 2023 and produced isolated large hail and localized downburst winds across central and eastern Minnesota. The largest hail occurred in Dakota County, where golf ball size hail was observed near Hampton, along with wind damage near Rosemount.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MPX wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed in the afternoon of July 24, 2023 and produced isolated large hail and localized downburst winds across central and eastern Minnesota. The largest hail occurred in Dakota County, where golf ball size hail was observed near Hampton, along with wind damage near Rosemount.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 12:10 PM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 110 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Small chance for afternoon/evening storms near I-94 corridor, and a few could produce gusty winds and hail. - Dangerously hot conditions build midweek with heat indices of 100 to 105 Wednesday and Thursday. Today through Sunday...Hot weather will be the main story this coming week, and afternoon highs will be in the mid 90s Tuesday, and upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday with a few locations making a run at the century mark. There will also be small chances for thunderstorms, although the forcing will be weak so widespread rainfall is not expected. The one exception is Wednesday night into Thursday when a complex of thunderstorms is expected to form across the eastern Dakotas, and could sag southeast into Minnesota and Wisconsin. For today, expect filtered sunshine with some haze/smoke lingering across the region. There is a small chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. The synoptic forcing doesn't really support it, but the HiRes models are in pretty good agreement with developing scattered convection later today, mainly along the I-94 corridor. There is a marginal risk for severe weather, but this a lower-end risk with mainly gusty winds or hail possible with a few stronger storms. Otherwise, heat will build across the region. Winds will remain light, which means that we'll need full sunshine to realize the high temperatures. This could be offset by any convective debris, so continued with the blended guidance for temperatures. One time frame to watch is Wednesday night into Tuesday, when a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region. The airmass below will be conditionally unstable, meaning that convection could develop if the forcing is strong enough to break the cap. For now it's more of a wait-and-see. Looking ahead, temperatures do cool off a bit toward the end of the week, but still remain above normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. There are also small chances for thunderstorms, but this will depend on how the storms earlier in the week pan out. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 We've had an attempt at convective initiation between STC and MSP that looks to have developed along the smoke gradient when looking at satellite. However, this activity has since fizzled out and current thinking is that we will eventually see some isolated activity this afternoon, likely near and west of the smoke boundary, but not enough to warrant putting a precip mention in any of the TAFs. Tonight, without fresh rain, the fog potential looks much lower than what we saw last night. Winds much of today/tonight will be light and variable, with wind directions bouncing between southeast and northwest, but enough of a gradient arrives on Tuesday to give us a more consistent south wind direction. KMSP...VAD wind profile and RAP soundings for our winds trending more toward WSW direction this afternoon, though we'll likely see directions bouncing between the south and north of the 210 wind threshold for the 30s/12s. Isolated activity can't be ruled out today, but given the fact that stuff that developed to the northwest around 17z has already fallen apart, that shower threat looks too low to bring in any sort of precip mention into the TAF. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS in mrng. Wind SE 5 kts. THU...VFR. Chc evening TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts. Fri...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...MPG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 322 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028- 250830- Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns- Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa- Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington- Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth- Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk- St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire- 322 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, especially across east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Large hail and gusty winds may accompany the strongest storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hot and humid conditions are expected throughout this week with the warmest days coming Wednesday and Thursday. Excessive heat is likely with temperatures in the upper 90s and maximum heat indices in the low to mid 100s. Little relief is expected at night with lows near 70 midweek. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN spotter activation is unlikely, but may be needed this afternoon and evening. jrb
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
206 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023
MNZ062-063-WIZ023-241930-
Washington MN-Ramsey MN-St. Croix WI-
206 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Washington,
eastern Ramsey and west central St. Croix Counties through 230 PM
CDT...
At 206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Vadnais Heights, or 8 miles north of St. Paul, moving southeast at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Maplewood around 210 PM CDT.
Oakdale and Mahtomedi around 215 PM CDT.
Lake Elmo around 225 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Woodbury,
Stillwater, Hudson, North Hudson and Bayport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4507 9267 4484 9287 4497 9312 4506 9316
4513 9310 4513 9308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 299DEG 25KT 4507 9305
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
TDHThe Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 49 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:15 UTC.
8 hail, 5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple trees and branches down on the southern side of White Bear Lake. Time estimated from radar.
Multiple trees down on powerlines in Rosemont. A construction trailer occupied by one person flipped over onto a vehicle off County Road 42, and the person was uninjured.
Photo relayed through social media.
Photo relayed through social media.
Pictures received of metal signs blown over. Time estimated from radar.
Photo relayed through social media.
Multiple trees down on powerlines in Farmington.
Deputy reported golf ball size hail near Hampton. Time estimated by radar.
Twelve to eighteen inch trees blown down. Shingles blown off several rooftops. Time estimated by radar.
Video relayed through social media.
Mostly dime size hail with some quarter size hail mixed in. Photo relayed through social media.
Hail shredded leaves on trees.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1228190, 1228191, 1228197, 1228198, 1228201, 1228202, 1228203, 1228204, 1228200, 1228206, 1228207, 1228205, 1228208.