Long-standing abnormally dry conditions from April 2023 through December resulted in no changes to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought in southeast Minnesota in December. From initial severe drought (D2) issuance in July 2023 to the onset of December, 10 to 15 of total rainfall was up to 10 below normal.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Long-standing abnormally dry conditions from April 2023 through December resulted in no changes to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought in southeast Minnesota in December. From initial severe drought (D2) issuance in July 2023 to the onset of December, 10 to 15 of total rainfall was up to 10 below normal. While monthly total rainfall of 1 in December was only slightly below normal, the long-standing abnormally dry conditions resulted in continuation of the severe (D2) to extreme (drought). Well above normal temperatures in December, about 10 degrees above normal, further perpetuated soil moisture concerns. Broadcast media reported stunted growth and financial impacts for Christmas tree farms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 9:36 PM CST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 936 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 .DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Key Messages: - Lower end precipitation chances (20-50%) through the weekend...mostly snow and generally confined to parts of northeast IA into central WI. Minor (under 1") accumulations favored. - Light snow chances (20-30%) Mon night-Tue, warming by mid week (mid 40s to around 50 for highs). * PCPN FRI/FRI NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTH - locally still some lower end chances for parts of NE IA/southwest WI. Upper level shortwave trough on track to lift northeast out of the desert southwest today, spinning across the mid mississippi river valley Fri morning and then over the eastern great lakes by Fri evening. Short term guidance has continued to inch the system south, keeping the bulk of the related pcpn/qpf south/east of the local forecast area. There could be a glancing blow for parts of NE IA/southwest WI, but chances still on the low end (20-30%). Coupled upper level jet, QG convergence and decent mid level Fgen band expected with the shortwave, and CAMS models paint a narrow band of pcpn on the northward side of the system. Depending on how far north, it could fall as snow. Latest HREF paints a 60-80% chance for 1" or more or snow, 50-60% for more than 2". So while the system looks to hold southward, just a slight shift north could bring an inch or two of the white stuff to far southern locations. Bears watching. Right on the heals of this shortwave is another bit of energy ejecting out of the southwesterly flow a loft, taking a similar track (moving in Fri night). Not as perky as the first shortwave, but has enough going for it to produce its own pcpn band, running along nearly the same line. QPF is much less, but timing/temps favor snow. Some suggestions in the models that saturation will start to shallow out as this ripple moves through, which could remove ice from cloud and trend toward freezing drizzle. A lot of "ifs" here...if there is still forcing, if the saturated layer shallows, etc. Not discarding out of hand, but won't add freezing mention to the forecast at this time. * SAT NIGHT/SUN PCPN CHANCES - southern stream shortwave taking a line much like Friday's, but looking a bit more north with more widespread rain/snow chances (but only minor QPF). Yet another spinner in the upper atmosphere is slated to lift out of the desert southwest northeast. This wave takes a similar path but with a slight shift northward. Decent QG convergence a loft, but deeper south of the local area and not much for Fgen. QPF is limited. Temps/timing would keep ptype snow with the ensemble mean only painting a 20-40$ shot for 1" or greater...mostly for southwest into central WI. * NEW WORK WEEK - pcpn chances Mon-Tue (low QPF), trending warmer by the middle part of the week. GEFS and EPS leaning into dropping a shortwave trough out of Canada to across the upper Mississippi river valley Monday night, with the potential to linger an associated sfc trough across the region Tue. Bulk of the both ensembles' members bring mostly light QPF to the region, although with placement differences. Amounts look meager right now with GEFS and EPS only pushing a 20-30% chance for more than 0.01"...with nary a chance for 1" or more of snow. All in all, some snow chances but not shaping up to be much at this time. Long range guidance continues to trend toward upper level ridge building as we move into the middle part of the new week. Some differences in how amplified the ridge could/will be, with the GFS suggesting something a bit stronger than the EC. Overall, cluster analysis slightly favors a somewhat flatter ridge - but only be a small margin - not "enough" to warrant a full buy-in. Still, temps look to be on the rise at least for a few days. Grand ensemble in the long range guidance pushes a 20-40% shot for 45+ highs Wed-Fri with the warmer GEFS suggesting those chances would be 10-20% higher. Setup looking pretty good for some mid/upper 40 highs (perhaps lower 50s for some). && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 936 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 VFR conditions are likely for most of the region through this TAF period with winds becoming N/NE at 5-10 kts as low pressure passes south and east of the region on Friday. Mid/high clouds will spread north into the Upper MS Valley with the northern edge of a rain/snow band and MVFR ceilings possibly brushing far southwest WI/northeast IA Friday into Friday night. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && DISCUSSION...Rieck AVIATION...JM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service La Crosse WI 316 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061-011200- Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette- Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston- Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau- Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant- 316 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday There maybe some light snow accumulations on Saturday night. This might impact travel. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... No action needed. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... No webinar is scheduled. Boyne
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought persisted across most of Mower County through December. While monthly rainfall near 1 was only slightly below normal, the long-standing abnormally dry conditions, 8 to 12 below normal, resulted in the severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought persisting.
Severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought persisted across most of Fillmore County through December. While monthly rainfall near 1 was only slightly below normal, the long-standing abnormally dry conditions, 8 to 12 below normal since July 1st, resulted in the severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought persisting.
Severe (D2) drought persisted for parts of Houston County through December. While monthly rainfall near 1 was only slightly below normal, the long-standing abnormally dry conditions, 8 to 12 below normal since July 1st, resulted in the severe (D2) drought persisting.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1153315, 1153316, 1153317.