A social media report and attached photos documented damaging winds from a severe thunderstorms that moved through South Range during the early evening of the 4th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A social media report and attached photos documented damaging winds from a severe thunderstorms that moved through South Range during the early evening of the 4th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 2:04 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 304 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 .SHORT TERM...(The rest of today and tonight) Issued at 256 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2023 Mostly sunny skies dominate the UP early this afternoon. However, satellite imagery shows a diurnal cu field beginning to develop over the west ahead of a line of showers and storms currently over NE MN and western WI. With CAPE values are projected to get above 1000 J/kg across the area this afternoon, we may see some showers and thunderstorms develop over the western UP and move into the north central UP late this afternoon into early this evening ahead of the main line IF the cap around 7 kft is overcome. Given that model soundings show some dry air in the mid levels, we could see some gusty/sub-severe damaging winds with these storms. However, with shearing really lacking ahead of the main line (0-6 km bulk shear is only around 20 to 25 kts), these storms will likely have a hard time producing any severe hail, although some small sub-severe hail looks possible. These storms and showers may pop-up, core dump, weaken, restrengthen, then core dump again late this afternoon until just after sunset as there should be enough instability to keep them going until the sun goes down. As for the main line of storms, we could see it roll into the west around 8-10 PM EDT this evening. We could see some strong to possibly marginally severe hail and wind with this line, particularly in the far west where the kinematics and instability are better (will have sunlight longer too). As this line moves east in the central UP, expect it to weaken as it moves into more stable air. Now, one thing worth mentioning, though, is that the most recent HRRR model has the line being much weaker than anticipated; it even shows the line not arriving into the UP until late tonight. Will need to keep an eye on this development as this could pretty much get rid of any severe weather chances this evening/tonight. Behind the line of storms, expect scattered showers and storms to traverse the UP. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 303 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2023 By 18Z Wednesday, the cold front will already have proceeded to be draped across the south-central to eastern UP. Recent NAM runs had the cold front position at 18Z as far west as Ironwood, so this faster frontal progression will leave much of the west half with lesser precip than previously forecast. It is still probable that the east half sees half an inch to an inch of rain given the lift from the surface front, impulse shortwaves in the 500mb layer, and jet layer divergence from an approximately 110 kt jet over northern Ontario and the prevalence of moisture as PWATs are as high as 1.5 inches and NAEFS climo percentiles for vaport transport, humidity, and PWAT are all in the 90th percentile. However, with even 1-hour flash flood guidance well in excess of an inch for most of the UP, flash flooding will likely not be a concern as training storms are not expected and the soils are unlikely to be primed from today's convection affecting the west half. Abnormally cool temperatures follow in the wake of the cold fropa, with highs only in the 60s and 70s Thursday. A surface high pressue in the high 1010s mb will advance over the Upper Great Lakes, lea ving dry weather for Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. As the main 500mb trough stalls over the Hudson Bay, even retrograding some, quick shortwave trough/ridge successions will characterize the weather for the weekend and beyond. To give an idea of how quickly these shortwaves are passing, the 12Z GFS shows shortwave tropa Saturday afternoon, Sunday evening, Monday morning, Tuesday evening, Wednesday afternoon, and Friday morning. The ensembles show even more variability in when each trough passes and at what intensity, so confidence in the details is a bit low. Not all of these troughs will support precipitation and there is not much signal in any of the ensembles that any of the rain will be particularly intense, but most members of the ensembles show the UP ending up with 1-2 inches of total precip by the end of next week. Ensemble surface temperature anomaly analysis shows that temperatures are expected to be below normal to near normal next week, with NBM high temperatures being confined to the 70s for the most part. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 134 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2023 VFR conditions this afternoon look to continue until early this evening, when a line of thunderstorms currently entering into western WI moves into the UP. These storms could bring some erratic and gusty winds, heavy downpours (reduced vis), and frequent lightning. Expect the line of storms to travel from west to east early this evening through tonight. While some LLWS is plausible along and immediately behind the line of storms this evening through tonight, I left out of the TAFs for now as it would probably be sporadic borderline conditions, mainly over KSAW. Behind the storms tonight, expect cigs to drop from VFR to IFR before slowly improving Wednesday morning; it's also possible that fog forms over KCMX and KIWD late tonight if there is a break in the rainfall. Showers and storms look to continue over KSAW Wednesday, whereas precip looks to end over KIWD and KCMX by early tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 303 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2023 With weak pressure gradients for much of the CONUS and Canada east of the Rockies, winds will remain below 20 knots for the entire forecast period. The highest winds will be following a cold front on Wednesday into Thursday, where wind gusts may briefly exceed 20 knots in some areas of Lake Superior, especially on elevated platforms. Chances for scattered thunderstorms return to western Lake Superior this evening, and some isolated convection may be able to reach central and eastern Lake Superior overnight. Strong to severe storms are possible in western Lake Superior this afternoon and evening. The cold front slowly passing through Wednesday will touch off a next round of showers and storms in western Lake Superior early in the morning, spreading eastward the rest of the day before exiting east into the night. Some patchy dense fog is currently over the lake, and the additional moisture provided by the showers and thunderstorms may allow for further fog development into the late week period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243-244. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...GS AVIATION...TAP MARINE...GS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 325 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-051930- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 325 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 /225 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper Michigan and western Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Thunderstorms are expected tonight across Upper Michigan. A few storms this evening may be strong to severe with a threat of damaging winds and large hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or Twitter. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-051930- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 325 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 /225 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight Some patches of dense fog are possible tonight. See the Open Lakes Forecast for additional details. Thunderstorms are expected tonight. An isolated severe storm or two could be seen early this evening over the western half of Lake Superior. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, mainly across the eastern half of Lake Superior. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-051930- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 325 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Thunderstorms are possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday into Wednesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. TAP
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
512 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023
MIZ004-042145-
Baraga MI-
512 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Baraga
County through 545 PM EDT...
At 511 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Three Lakes, or 10 miles east of L'anse, moving north
at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Skanee.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4692 8793 4690 8794 4691 8805 4677 8805
4676 8803 4668 8808 4668 8812 4663 8811
4660 8813 4664 8839 4692 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 193DEG 7KT 4670 8824
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JVThe Marquette radar (KMQT), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:28 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Social media report of pea-sized hail and a photo of damage to the roof of a building. The report also indicated downed tree branches in the area. Time of the delayed report was estimated from radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1106107.