A mid atmospheric disturbance moved over a unstable airmass across northern New York during the afternoon hours of July 4th. Scattered thunderstorms rotated north to southeast across the region, some of them providing localized damaging winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A mid atmospheric disturbance moved over a unstable airmass across northern New York during the afternoon hours of July 4th. Scattered thunderstorms rotated north to southeast across the region, some of them providing localized damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 2:20 PM EST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 320 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon will gradually dissipate towards sunset with a muggy, warm, and foggy night ahead. Temperatures trend hot for Wednesday and Thursday while conditions remain humid, resulting in heat stress concerns, Isolated thunderstorms are possible again across the higher terrain as well. More numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 319 PM EDT Tuesday...It's been an active day across portions of the forecast area with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, dissipating, and redeveloping, mainly from the Adirondacks eastward with lake breezes keeping precipitation mainly away from the majority of the Champlain Valley. While a few stronger cells have produced localized heavy rainfall, and isolated ponding and/or minor flooding, most are more of the garden variety with brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Upstream vigorous thunderstorms over/near Montreal have begun to weaken also, but are slowly drifting south and could briefly affect border towns in northern New York for the next few hours, but we expect the intensity to continue diminish as it does so. Otherwise, it's been a very warm and humid day with temps warming well into the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints holding in the mid/upper 60s. For tonight, the aforementioned convective activity will wane with the loss of surface heating and instability after sunset and should be very isolated by the time we reach the time fireworks shows should begin. Fog will quickly replace the showers after sunset though where rain fell, and will be locally very dense in the river valleys. In addition, with no big airmass change from the previous night, conditions will remain oppressive with overnight lows only in the mid 60s to low 70s and dewpoints just a degree or two below. On Wednesday the best upper level forcing will be east of the region with mid/upper level heights rising. Overall it should be a much drier day, but some isolated terrain driven showers and thunderstorms will remain possible, mainly across the Adirondacks. The bigger story will the continued rise in temperatures and humidity as progged 925mb temps near +23C will support highs warming well into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints will remain high in the 60s, producing heat indices in the low to mid 90s warranting an increase in concerns for heat illness to those unprepared. Expect to need additional hydration especially if you'll be outdoors. Any showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon will dissipate once again after sunset with another warm, humid and foggy night expected. Lows will tick up a couple more degrees, but similar to the previous night in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 319 PM EDT Tuesday...Hottest day of the forecast period to occur on Thursday with ample capping and modest ridging at mid- levels keeping convection at a minimum. Max T's in the 88 to 94 range look reasonable and with dewpoints in the 60s heat advisory thresholds may be approached for a few hours in warmest valley locales. Regardless, it'll be a hot and humid July afternoon with only light and variable breezes. Then quiet Thursday night under continued warm and muggy conditions with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 319 PM EDT Tuesday...Weather turns more active from Friday onward into early next week as a slow moving upper trough trudges into the area. Temperatures gradually cool back toward more seasonal July norms, but conditions remain warm and humid with near daily chances of showers and storms. Most active day appears to occur on Friday when more enhanced mid to upper level flow interacts with approaching surface trough dynamics. A few strong to locally severe storms may be possible during this time. Given the slow moving nature of the trough and associated deep moisture plume a threat of localized flash flooding will also exist, especially from the Champlain Valley east. This is highlighted well in WPC's latest Excessive Rainfall Outlook for days 4 and 5. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of the daylight hours with scattered showers and thunderstorms diminishing towards sunset. Brief MVFR/IFR is likely if any storms move directly over a terminal, and will handle with amendments. After 00Z, expect areas of fog to develop again for the overnight, with high confidence at KSLK and KMPV. Have mention of VCFG elsewhere where confidence is lower, though if any terminal gets rain this afternoon, the probability of fog will increase. Wednesday will be a rinse and repeat of today though with less areal coverage of convection, and mainly VFR again. Winds will be light northerly less than 8kts this afternoon, near calm overnight, then WNW less than 8kts tomorrow. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Burlington VT 423 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-050830- Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia- Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin- Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor- Eastern Windsor- 423 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are again expected today with a rare cell possibly becoming strong in the 2-6PM time frame. Those outdoors for Independence Day festivities will want to have a plan in case of lighting. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
230 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023
VTZ003-007-008-041900-
Caledonia VT-Washington VT-Orleans VT-
230 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Caledonia, southern Orleans and northeastern Washington Counties
through 300 PM EDT...
At 229 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hardwick. This storm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Walden, Hardwick, Stannard, Greensboro Bend, Greensboro, Wheelock,
Danville, East Greensboro, North Walden, South Walden, East Hardwick,
and Hardwick Center.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4453 7238 4459 7229 4453 7208 4442 7222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 308DEG 2KT 4452 7230
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KutikoffSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023
NYZ034-035-042015-
Western Essex NY-Eastern Essex NY-
342 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Essex
County through 415 PM EDT...
At 342 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Elizabethtown, moving southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Elizabethtown, Lewis, Mineville, Witherbee, and New Russia.
This includes Interstate 87 between mile markers 105 and 116.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4425 7380 4434 7361 4410 7345 4404 7363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 327DEG 21KT 4422 7363
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KutikoffPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
349 PM EDT Tue Jul 04 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0253 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg East Hardwick 44.52N 72.31W
07/04/2023 Caledonia VT Trained Spotter
Tree down on Route 16 and tree down on Cedar Street in
East Hardwick
&&
Event Number BTV2301646
RSDPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
351 PM EDT Tue Jul 04 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0300 PM Flood East Hardwick 44.52N 72.31W
07/04/2023 Caledonia VT Trained Spotter
Water over Ward Hill Rd. and Catamount Rd.
&&
Event Number BTV2301647
RSDThe Burlington radar (KCXX), 56 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:06 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees and powerlines downed by thunderstorm winds.
Trees and powerlines downed by thunderstorm winds.
Trees and branches down on power lines.
Dime size hail reported.
Several reports of trees downed by thunderstorm winds.
Trees and powerlines downed by thunderstorm winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1125498, 1125497, 1125499, 1125495, 1125500, 1125503.