Enhanced trade winds were affecting the local area as a robust tropical wave approaches the region. Seas were locally choppy, but conditions only warranted a low rip current risk along southwestern Puerto Rico.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Enhanced trade winds were affecting the local area as a robust tropical wave approaches the region. Seas were locally choppy, but conditions only warranted a low rip current risk along southwestern Puerto Rico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 11:17 AM AST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1117 AM AST Tue Jul 4 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM AST Tue Jul 4 2023
No significant change to forecast or reasoning. There is a
tropical wave that is progressing over the region, which has
resulted in above-normal moisture levels; the precipitable water
was 2.36 inches with the 12Z sounding. Aloft, there is an upper-
level trough that is associated with a low north-northwest of the
island, with the trough axis lying to the west of the islands. The
good ventilation aloft provided by this TUTT is resulting in good
instability over the region. As such, there is widespread shower
activity with isolated thunderstorms. Increasing thunderstorm
activity is possible this afternoon, moreso in western portions of
the area. In the east, the back end of the wave is moving over the
region currently, with drier air behind the wave. Because of this,
shower activity is expected to decrease overall through the
afternoon. By this evening or early tonight, relatively dry
conditions are expected there, with increasing haze. In the west,
moisture will linger into the night, but dry air will move in
there, as well.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous tropical wave with axis now entering the eastern Caribbean
will continue westward while bringing an increase in tropical moisture
across the region the rest of the morning and into the afternoon
hours. The interaction between the tropical wave and a deepening
upper level trough forecast to sink further southward across the
Mona passage, will increase instability aloft and favor enhanced
morning and afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the islands
and coastal waters. Moisture content is expected to rapidly erode
later in the evening and the rest of the workweek with the arrival
of another surge of the extensive Saharan air layer and a moderate
to high concentration of Saharan dust particulates.
The aformentioned conditions will increase the risk for urban flooding
in isolated spots as well as pounding of water on roads and in poor
drainage areas during the rest of today. Thereafter, a gradual improvement
is expected as drier air and hazy skies will return to the region. Hot
and humid conditions will result in heat advisory condition for parts
of the islands today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...
The interaction between the leading edge of the robust tropical
wave, with its axis now located around 61W, and a deepening
tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) induced showers and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the local waters during
the overnight hours. The strongest thunderstorms were observed
across the coastal Atlantic waters and Mona Passage with GOES
Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) indicating the presence of
frequent lightning associated with these storms. Some moved over
southern and eastern Puerto Rico, producing rainfall totals of up
to an inch.
The TUTT will continue to deepen while sinking southward, settling
over northwestern Puerto Rico for the rest of the short-term period.
This should provide favorable dynamics at upper levels for deep
convective development. The limiting factor will be the available
moisture across the forecast area. The tropical wave will provide
sufficient moisture for most of today. The Tropical Analysis &
Forecast Branch (TAFB) puts the axis of the tropical wave over
Puerto Rico by 04/12z and over Hispaniola by 05/00z. Behind the
tropical wave, a drier air mass with suspended Saharan dust
particulates will move in from the east. The relative humidity
within the 850-300 mb layer is expected to plummet, going down from
70% or more to less than 30% after the wave passes through. As this
drier airmass moves westward, shower and thunderstorm activity will
be suppressed, with hazy skies prevailing across the local islands.
There is some uncertainty about the timing of the aforementioned
weather scenario.
For now, model guidance suggests shower and thunderstorm activity
along with gusty wind conditions continuing during the morning
hours, with the southern and eastern municipalities of Puerto Rico
impacted the most. Vieques, Culebra, and U.S. Virgin Islands could
also observe some active weather as showers and thunderstorms over
the local waters pass near or over the islands. By late morning
through the afternoon hours, convective activity will affect the
western portions of Puerto Rico and Mona Passage. The eastern half
of the CWA may gradually transition to hazy skies and more stable
weather conditions during the evening hours. However, this will
depend on the timing of drier air and suspended Saharan dust
entering the forecast area.
Despite the presence of the TUTT northwest of Puerto Rico, moisture
content is expected to decrease below the 50th percentile on
Wednesday. Therefore, for most of the day, mainly stable weather
conditions and hazy skies will prevail. Some showers and a few, very
isolated and short-lived thunderstorms may develop out west in the
afternoon. Hazy skies will persist on Thursday, but moisture content
will jump back up to seasonal climatological levels. Therefore,
expect passing showers over windward coastal areas of the islands in
the morning hours. In the afternoon, enough low-level moisture,
diurnal heating, and local effects in combination with the effects
of the TUTT close by will promote shower and thunderstorm
development over interior and western sections of Puerto Rico.
Increased cloud cover and rains should result in lower temperatures
today, ranging from the upper 80s across lower elevations in the
daytime. However, high humidity will be enough to drive high index
values, mostly over northern coastal municipalities of Puerto Rico
and Culebra. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will be in effect for the
north-central coast of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, where the
maximum heat indices are expected to again fluctuate between 108 and
111 degrees Fahrenheit.&&
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
A drier airmass and more seasonal conditions are expected, with
the Saharan air layer and accompanying moderate concentration of
suspended dust particulates expected to linger across the region
at least until Friday. Near normal moisture content will persist
into the upcoming weekend. However, the lingering upper tropospheric
trough (TUTT) through the weekend will aid in providing sufficient
ventilation and instability aloft to combine with good daytime
heating and local effects for afternoon convection through Saturday.
Expect shower and thunderstorm activity mainly across the interior
and western portions of Puerto Rico each afternoon. Streamer-like
showers are also possible downwind of the smaller islands and El
Yunque mountain range, with the latter affecting parts of the San
Juan metro area. Ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage
areas as well as minor urban and small stream flooding will remain
possible each afternoon in isolated areas. Some passing showers
can also be expected across windward coastal areas during
overnight and early morning hours.
By Sunday, another tropical wave is forecast to enter and move across
the northeastern Caribbean. Both GFS and ECMWF suggest the passage
of this wave and accompanying moisture field by Sunday and into Monday.
The aforementioned tropical wave is expected to bring precipitable
water values up to around 2 inches or so once again. As mentioned
the TUTT is expected to remain in the vicinity and will therefore
aid in enhancing convective development especially during the afternoon
and early morning hours. Urban and small stream flooding and isolated
flash flooding will remain possible.
By late Monday and the rest of the period, both models suggest slightly
drier conditions and once again seasonal weather pattern, with hot
and humid conditions as the trend of suspended Saharan Dust particulates
will continue. Therefore, mostly sunny skies but hazy weather conditions
are likely by early next week.
&&
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
A drier airmass and more seasonal conditions are expected, with
the Saharan air layer and accompanying moderate concentration of
suspended dust particulates expected to linger across the region
at least until Friday. Near normal moisture content will persist
into the upcoming weekend. However, the lingering upper tropospheric
trough (TUTT) through the weekend will aid in providing sufficient
ventilation and instability aloft to combine with good daytime
heating and local effects for afternoon convection through Saturday.
Expect shower and thunderstorm activity mainly across the interior
and western portions of Puerto Rico each afternoon. Streamer-like
showers are also possible downwind of the smaller islands and El
Yunque mountain range, with the latter affecting parts of the San
Juan metro area. Ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage
areas as well as minor urban and small stream flooding will remain
possible each afternoon in isolated areas. Some passing showers
can also be expected across windward coastal areas during
overnight and early morning hours.
By Sunday, another tropical wave is forecast to enter and move across
the northeastern Caribbean. Both GFS and ECMWF suggest the passage
of this wave and accompanying moisture field by Sunday and into Monday.
The aforementioned tropical wave is expected to bring precipitable
water values up to around 2 inches or so once again. As mentioned
the TUTT is expected to remain in the vicinity and will therefore
aid in enhancing convective development especially during the afternoon
and early morning hours. Urban and small stream flooding and isolated
flash flooding will remain possible.
By late Monday and the rest of the period, both models suggest slightly
drier conditions and once again seasonal weather pattern, with hot
and humid conditions as the trend of suspended Saharan Dust particulates
will continue. Therefore, mostly sunny skies but hazy weather conditions
are likely by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 AM AST Tue Jul 4 2023
SHRA/isol'd TSRA cont across the region, associated with a
tropical wave. Activity is decreasing and will continue to do so
in the E, as the back end of the wave is near the USVI. Still,
some impacts are possible TJSJ, and less so for TIST/TISX. Periods
of IFR or worse for TJPS as SHRA/TSRA move onshore thru around
04/17Z. Activity near TJBQ this afternoon could also include TSRA,
and brief MVFR or worse cannot be ruled out. Saharan dust behind
the wave will bring hazy conditions starting by tonight/early tmrw
morn across the area, though conds likely to remain generally VFR.
&&
.AVIATION...
TSRA/SHRA will result in brief MVFR conditions across most terminals
within 24 hours. For TJSJ, TJPS, and USVI terminals, this scenario
will prevail through at least 04/15z. For TJBQ, this scenario is
likely after 04/16Z. Calm to light and variable winds becoming more
southeasterly with sea breeze variations and increasing to around 10-
20 knots with higher gusts by 04/18Z. Winds again become light and
variable after 04/23Z. Higher winds and gusty conditions are possible
near the TSRA/SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1016 AM AST Tue Jul 4 2023
No change to forecast or reasoning. Increased winds with the
passage of the tropical wave will result in some hazardous
conditions in the Anegada Passage and offshore Caribbean waters.
Additionally, there are showers and thunderstorms over the waters,
which will result in gusty winds and locally deteriorated
conditions nearby. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for
most local beaches.
&&
.MARINE...
Mariners can expect choppy wind driven seas between 15 and 20
knots with occasionally higher gust across most of the local
waters and passages today. A tropical wave crossing the eastern
Caribbean, will bring areas of enhanced showers with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms during the rest of the morning and early
afternoon hours. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for portions
of the Caribbean Waters and the Anegada Passage. Small craft
operators should exercise caution elsewhere. Please refer to the
latest Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU) and the Marine weather
message (MWWSJU) issued by WFO San JUan PR for the most up to
date info.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ005-012.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST this afternoon for AMZ723-
733.
&&
SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....RVT
AVIATION...CRSPerspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR 422 AM martes 4 de julio de 2023 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-050830- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe- 422 AM martes 4 de julio de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Tronadas numerosas son posibles a traves del area. Planifique suspender todas las actividades en el exterior y muevase a algun refugio. .Lluvias Excesivas...Inundaciones urabanas, en calles, riachuelos y en areas bajas. Inundaciones repentinas son posibles. .Calor Excesivo...Indices de calor de 108-111 grados a traves del norte central de Puerto Rico y para Culebra. Se esperan indices de calor de 102-107 grados para San Juan y vecindad, noroeste y oeste de Puerto Rico. Agotamiento por calor es posible con exposicion prolongada. Golpe de calor es posible. .Vientos...Condiciones de brisa fuerte para las areas costeras durante horas de la tarde. Los articulos no asegurados podrian salir volando. .Condiciones Maritimas...Operadores de embarcaciones pequenas deben ejercer precaucion a traves de las aguas mar afuera y el Pasaje de Anegada. Las condiciones maritimas deterioradas persistiran hoy a traves de las aguas del Caribe y el Pasaje de Anegada. Advertencias para los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas estan en efecto. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a vida son posibles en las areas de olas rompientes particularmente a lo largo de las costas del norte, este y sur de Puerto Rico. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...miercoles a lunes Aunque las temperaturas permaneceran tipicas para la temporada durante la semana laboral, aun se esperan indices de calor excesivo persistiendo para sectores de las islas durante el periodo de pronostico. El riesgo de inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos aumentara el domingo hasta el lunes ya que se pronostica que otra onda tropical vigorosa se movera a traves de la region. Las condiciones ventosas aumentaran durante el periodo de pronostico. Estos vientos promoveran oleaje picado a traves de las aguas regionales, y mantendran riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas hasta por lo menos el lunes. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No es necesario activar a los observadores. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-050830- San Tomas, San John y las Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas a la Costa del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 422 AM martes 4 de julio de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para las Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Tronadas numerosas son posibles a traves del area. Planifique suspender todas las actividades en el exterior y muevase a algun refugio. .Lluvias Excesivas...Acumulacion de agua en carreteras y en areas de pobre drenaje son posibles hoy. Inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos son posibles. .Calor Excesivo...Indices de calor de 102-107 grados a traves de sectores de las islas. Agotamiento por calor es posible con exposicion prolongada. .Vientos...Condiciones de brisa fuerte para las areas costeras durante horas de la tarde. Los articulos no asegurados podrian salir volando. .Condiciones Maritimas...Operadores de embarcaciones pequenas deben ejercer precaucion a traves de las aguas locales. Las condiciones maritimas deterioradas persistiran hoy a traves de las aguas del Caribe y el Pasaje de Anegada. Advertencias para los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas estan en efecto. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a vida son posibles en las areas de olas rompientes de las islas. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...miercoles a lunes Aunque las temperaturas permaneceran tipicas para la temporada durante la semana laboral, aun se esperan indices de calor excesivo persistiendo para sectores de las islas durante el periodo de pronostico. El riesgo de inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos aumentara el domingo hasta el lunes ya que se pronostica que otra onda tropical vigorosa se movera a traves de la region. Las condiciones ventosas aumentaran durante el periodo de pronostico. Estos vientos promoveran oleaje picado a traves de las aguas regionales, y mantendran riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas hasta por lo menos el lunes. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No es necesario activar a los observadores.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A 44-year-old male drowned when he was swept away by rip currents in Balneario Cana Gorda in Guanica.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Southwest | 2023-07-04 | 44 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1105223.