A thunderstorms with heavy rainfall stalled over the communities of Peru, Jay, and Canton on the evening of the 25th. 5 inches fell between 6 and 730 pm.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GYX wrote it up.
A thunderstorms with heavy rainfall stalled over the communities of Peru, Jay, and Canton on the evening of the 25th. Radar estimates between 3 to 4.5 inches fell between 6 and 730 pm. The rain fell over saturated ground and hilly terrain. A small tributary called the Tucker Valley Brook came out of banks and washed out a bridge on the Jay-Wilton line.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gray, ME wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 6:13 PM EST, 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 713 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening, mainly across New Hampshire. There will be additional chances for showers and storms Tuesday followed by mostly dry conditions mid week. Heat and humidity build through the end of the week with cold front bringing drier and cooler air over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 7:10pm Update... Focused on the POPs with the ongoing thunderstorms across the higher terrain and southern NH this evening. The heaviest storms have been lingering along the foothills of Maine, where flash flooding concerns continue through the evening hours. Elsewhere, some gusty thunderstorms have mostly been brief and progressive. The convective activity will diminish through the evening, with developing fog being the main concern going forward through the rest of the night. Previous... A short wave trough will gradually approach from the west through this evening. In response, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly in NH into the evening hours. However a few will be possible in Maine as well, especially along any mesoscale thermal circulations. Weak mid level lapse rates are expected to keep coverage and intensity down. However, steep low level lapse rates and ample CAPE will likely allow for a few strong to marginally severe storms with strong gusty winds being the primary threat. Isolated instances of hail and flash flooding will be possible as well. The activity will wane as the evening progresses with mainly dry weather after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... Another very warm day on tap for Tuesday with yet another modest short wave trough approaching from the west. This should allow for another chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. Drying is expected Tuesday night with fog developing mainly in the valleys once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The 500 mb pattern across the CONUS will transition from a ridge/trough configuration to zonal flow the second half of the week. This will allow for heat and humidity to build across New England... peaking on Friday when heat indices will approach Heat Advisory criteria of the mid 90s. A disturbance within the zonal will bring chances for showers and storms Thursday with a cold front bringing additional chances for showers and storms late Friday into Saturday. Temperatures and dewpoints lower through the weekend under a drying NW flow regime. High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will nose into the forecast area providing warm and mostly dry conditions Wednesday with steady SW winds. Highs will generally be in the 80s while SW winds will limit the inland penetration of a sea breeze leading to warm conditions near the the coast. A short wave moving within the zonal flow pattern will approach Thursday. Deep layer moisture with increase ahead of this wave with PWATs approaching 2 inches and dewpoints climbing into the low 70s. These increasing dewpoints will coincide with air temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s leading to heat indices approaching the low to mid 90s south of the mountains. Steady SW winds will again limit any cooling sea breezes near the coast. The short wave will provide forcing for ascent and there will be instability for thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night. The 12Z model suite has generally increased chances for precipitation late Thursday into Thursday night so have nudged up PoPs during this time vs the NBM. It will be warm and humid Thursday night with lows only dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s. The heat and humidity looks to peak on Friday. Air temperatures will climb above 90 degrees for much of the area south of the mountains with dewpoints in the low 70s. This brings heat indices into the mid to upper 90s for a few hours Friday which would meet Heat Advisory criteria. Model guidance continues to suggest a cold front will sag south sometime around late Friday. Given the hot and humid conditions in place any forcing could lead to some strong thunderstorms with CSU machine learning probabilities showing a fairly strong signal at this time range. Cooler and drier air work into the region behind the front over the weekend. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...VFR this evening except lower in showers and thunderstorms. 1/2SM or less in fog at some terminals such as RKD AUG BML and HIE. VFR Tuesday with with widely scattered thunderstorms possible once again. Long Term...Outside of some coastal and valley fog Tuesday night mainly VFR is expected into Thursday. There will be chances for SHRA and TS both late Thursday and again Friday which could bring some flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Short Term...A few thunderstorms and squalls pass through the southern waters this evening. Conditions then remain tranquil on the waters through Tuesday. Areas of fog remain possible. Long Term...High pressure south of the waters will promote SW flow from the middle to the end of the week. Approaching fronts from the NW may lead to SW gusts approaching 25 kts at times with the most likely period late Thursday. Seas generally stay at or below 4 ft. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && NEAR TERM...Clair/Ekster SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Schroeter
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gray ME 305 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 MEZ007-008-012-013-018>020-033-NHZ001>013-015-251915- Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin- Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin- Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Coos-Southern Coos- Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll- Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough- Interior Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough- 305 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, southwest Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire, central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will develop through this evening. There is potential for a few storms to become strong to severe with gusty winds and small hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The combination of temperatures of 90-95 and dew points in the low 70s have the potential to bring heat indices into the lower to mid 90s on Thursday and Friday. Thursday it will be more focused on southern NH and interior southern ME, spreading north and east on Friday. An approaching cold front could bring strong to severe storms late Friday into Friday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. MEZ014-021>028-NHZ014-251915- Southern Somerset-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Coastal York- Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo- Coastal Rockingham- 305 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine, southwest Maine and southern New Hampshire. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The combination of temperatures of 90-95 and dew points in the low 70s have the potential to bring heat indices into the lower to mid 90s on Thursday and Friday. Thursday it will be more focused on southern NH and interior southern ME, spreading north and east on Friday. An approaching cold front could bring strong to severe storms late Friday into Friday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. MEZ009-251915- Central Somerset- 305 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Maine. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. An approaching cold front could bring strong to severe storms late Friday into Friday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. ANZ150>154-251915- Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM- Penobscot Bay- Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM- Casco Bay- Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out 25 NM- 305 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
550 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
MEZ012-013-020-242230-
Southern Oxford ME-Androscoggin ME-Southern Franklin ME-
550 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Oxford,
north central Androscoggin and southeastern Franklin Counties through
630 PM EDT...
At 549 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Canton, or 13 miles east of Rumford, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Jay, Dixfield, Canton, Wilton, Livermore, Hartford and Peru.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4444 7042 4453 7042 4463 7023 4443 7018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 253DEG 7KT 4450 7035
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
650 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
MEZ008-012-013-242330-
Southern Oxford ME-Southern Franklin ME-Northern Franklin ME-
650 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central Oxford
and south central Franklin Counties through 730 PM EDT...
At 649 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mexico to near Rumford to 9 miles east of
Bethel. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Farmington, Rumford, Jay, Dixfield, Canton, Wilton, Mexico, Weld,
Livermore, Hartford, Greenwood, Carthage, Avon, Perkins, West Paris,
Woodstock, Temple, Town Of Washington, Sumner and Milton.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4446 7024 4444 7027 4441 7026 4434 7029
4430 7066 4448 7061 4457 7064 4461 7053
4461 7055 4463 7051 4467 7053 4482 7023
4465 7016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 242DEG 19KT 4458 7056 4452 7053 4442 7058
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
659 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
NHZ012-013-015-242345-
Western And Central Hillsborough NH-Interior Rockingham NH-
Eastern Hillsborough NH-
659 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Rockingham and southeastern Hillsborough Counties through 745 PM
EDT...
At 659 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tyngsborough, or near Chelmsford, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Nashua, Derry, Salem, Hollis, Hudson, Pelham, Londonderry and
Windham.
This includes Interstate 93 between mile markers 0 and 8.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4270 7155 4273 7156 4286 7125 4274 7120
4275 7123 4274 7125 4270 7129
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 242DEG 15KT 4266 7144
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DSThe Portland,ME radar (KGYX), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:08 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Tucker Valley Brook in Wilton overflowed onto Rollins Ridge Road resulting in a significant washout estimated at 12 yards long and up to 2 lanes wide.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Maine in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Maine, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1124051.