On March 3rd, 2023, a historically strong low pressure system moved across the lower Ohio Valley, bringing heavy rainfall, severe weather, and most notably, very strong gradient winds as it moved across the region. On the synoptic scale, a shortwave upper-level trough located over the mid-Mississippi Valley became negatively tilted during the morning hours of March 3rd.
Every event with a place to put it; 49 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
On March 3rd, 2023, a historically strong low pressure system moved across the lower Ohio Valley, bringing heavy rainfall, severe weather, and most notably, very strong gradient winds as it moved across the region. On the synoptic scale, a shortwave upper-level trough located over the mid-Mississippi Valley became negatively tilted during the morning hours of March 3rd. A 120 knot 500 mb jet developed across central Kentucky and middle Tennessee in the presence of a very strong height gradient. The footprint of this jet core was transferred into the lower levels of the atmosphere, with a 70 knot jet at 850 mb present across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The orientation of the shortwave trough aloft with respect to the low level cyclone was nearly ideal for mutual amplification, with both the surface low and the upper trough undergoing deepening during the morning and early afternoon hours on March 3rd. Ultimately, the surface low's minimum central pressure dropped to approximately 976 millibars near Vincennes, Indiana by mid-afternoon on the 3rd, creating an anomalously strong low-level pressure and height gradient across central Kentucky and southern Indiana.
Before the severe weather and strong gradient winds began, the first impact from this strong mid-latitude cyclone would come in the form of heavy rainfall, primarily across southern Indiana. With the strong low-level jet helping to advect warm and moist air northward, precipitable water values were anomalously high, ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 inches across southern Indiana and central Kentucky during the morning hours on March 3rd. Coupled with an intensifying low level warm frontal boundary which provided a large-scale lifting mechanism, this axis of high moisture content contributed to a broad swath of precipitation, which lasted through much of the morning and early afternoon hours across southern Indiana. Ultimately, many locations would receive between 3 and 6 inches of rain over the span of about 12 hours, causing isolated to scattered reports of flooding.
After the initial wave of precipitation associated with the warm front lifted into central Indiana, southern Indiana and central Kentucky would briefly be located in the warm sector of the cyclone during the late morning and early afternoon hours, providing an opportunity for severe weather. Due to the proximity of the surface low and the relatively limited period for destabilization, instability was very limited for this event, with between 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE present across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. However, with the extremely strong dynamics in place, wind shear parameters were incredibly high. Effective bulk shear generally ranged from 70-100 kt, while effective Storm Relative Helicity ranged from 300-600 m2/s2. In addition, low-level Storm Relative Helicity was maximized (300-400 m2/s2) just ahead of a broken line of low-topped supercells which went on to produce three EF-1 tornadoes across southern Indiana. Across central Kentucky, the main severe impacts would come from damaging straight-line winds within a broken quasi-linear convective system. While limited instability clearly reduced the overall strength of the QLCS, some convective cores were deep enough to pull higher momentum air from aloft down to the surface, causing scattered damage and wind gusts above 58 mph. A few additional severe wind gusts would also be produced by the aforementioned line of low-topped supercells as they moved across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.
While the heavy rainfall and severe weather were important aspects of this system, the most widespread impacts from this historic system would come from extremely strong gradient winds immediately following the passage of showers and storms along the surface cold front. As was previously mentioned, the rapid cyclogenesis as the surface low moved into western Kentucky and southwestern Indiana created an unusually strong pressure gradient across the region, even for cool season mid-latitude cyclones. This strong pressure gradient, combined with a brief period of steeper low-level lapse rates across central Kentucky thanks to temporary clearing in the wake of the cold front, helped to bring extremely strong winds and wind gusts to all of central Kentucky and most of southern Indiana. Widespread sustained winds of 30-40 mph and wind gusts of 60-80 mph were observed across the area, causing widespread tree and power line damage, as well as more scattered occurrences of structural damage. At one point, around half a million customers were without power across the state of Kentucky, with several counties seeing a temporary near-total loss in electrical service. As the mid-level cyclone moved overhead during the early evening hours, cloud cover would return, helping to reduce wind speeds and gusts somewhat, with conditions continuing to calm through the overnight hours into the morning of March 4th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 11:52 AM CST, 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1252 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1030 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023
Current surface analysis reveals deepening low pressure is centered
over the quad state region of AR/TN/KY/MO, with the associated warm
front extending roughly W-E across south-central KY. This has led to
a large T/Td gradient over the area with temperatures south of the
warm front (southern KY) in the lower to mid 60s with dewpoints in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. To the north (southern IN and north-
central KY), temps and dewpoints are generally in the 40s. Current
satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across much of the
area, with some breaks in the clouds possible over the eastern edge
of our CWA (Lake Cumberland Region towards Madison County, KY and
points eastward). However, expect mid and upper clouds to fill in
across here over the next couple of hours.
Initial shield of showers and embedded storms lifting north across
the area is now mainly confined to southern IN and areas in KY along
and north of I-64. Highest rainfall totals have also been observed
in this area, with southern IN and north-central KY having received
2.0-3.5 inches of precip so far. Across our south where we are
seeing a dry window, winds are starting to pick up out of the south
with wind gusts along the KY/TN border in the 30-40 mph range.
As we move into this afternoon, expect the line of strong to severe
storms to begin pushing into our western CWA (Dubois County, IN down
to Logan County, KY) around 3/17-18Z and the I-65 corridor around
3/18-19Z, eventually pushing east out of the area by 3/21-22Z. HREF
guidance and SPC Mesoanalysis indicate a narrow tongue of several
hundred J/kg SBCAPE just ahead of and along the line in addition to
the Effective Bulk Shear values of 70-90 kts. With shear vectors
oriented perpendicular to the surface boundary, storm mode may
transition to broken line/semi-discrete convection in our area
although forcing along the line may be strong enough to maintain a
more organized QLCS. Regardless, damaging winds of 70+ mph and
isolated tornadoes will be possible, although more discrete
convection would support a more significant tornado threat for our
area.
&&
.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023
...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION...
=================================================
Key Messages
=================================================
1. Heavy rainfall is expected this morning across the region with
the heaviest axis of rainfall across portions of northern Kentucky
and southern Indiana.
2. Strong gradient (non-thunderstorm) wind gusts are expected today
and tonight. Wind gusts of 45 to 55+ mph will be possible outside
of thunderstorms.
3. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late this morning
through the early afternoon hours.
4. Excessive runoff from today's rainfall may lead to instances of
river flooding this weekend and into early next week.
=================================================
Meteorological Overview
=================================================
Aloft, a negative tilted upper level trough axis and associated
strong mid-level jet streak will move northeastward across the
region today. At the surface, surface low over central Arkansas
this morning is forecast to lift northeastward and deepen rapidly as
it moves through southeastern Missouri, SE Illinois and into central
Indiana. Warm frontal boundary across Tennessee this morning will
surge northward over the next few hours resulting in an east-west
band of moderate to heavy rain showers with embedded thunderstorms
moving northward across our area. As the warm front pushes
northward into southern Indiana later this morning and afternoon,
north-south cold front will push eastward across the region brining
a round of strong to severe thunderstorms to the region. Due to the
strong pressure gradient and high winds just off the surface, gusty
gradient winds will be seen across the region today and tonight
outside of thunderstorms.
==================================================
This Morning
==================================================
07Z surface analysis revealed two areas of low pressure across the
lower MS and Red River Valley region. The first area of low
pressure was located over eastern OK with a second/deeper surface
low over SW Arkansas. Extending northeastward from the surface low
was a warm front that was located right along the KY/TN border
region.
This warm front is forecast to lift northward through the remainder
of the overnight hours and should be located somewhere in the
vicinity of the WK/BG Parkways just after sunrise. The front is
forecast to lift northward into southern Indiana by mid-late
morning. Ahead of this warm front, combination of strong isentropic
lift, intense synoptic scale lift and strong integrated water vapor
transport will result in numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms. The overall severe weather threat is low with this
as there will be a strong near surface inversion in place and
instability aloft isn't all that strong. The main forecast threat
here this morning will be moderate to heavy rainfall which may lead
to areal flooding issues as the morning wears on. The axis of
heaviest rainfall is likely to occur just to the south and east of
the northeastward moving low pressure system, mainly across western
TN, western KY and into southern IN. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches
with locally higher amounts will be possible in these areas. This
rainfall, falling over already saturated ground, will likely result
in runoff and areal flooding over southern Indiana and portions. of
northern Kentucky. The current Flash Flood Watch continues to be in
good shape here. Though we made a minor adjustment by adding Grayson
and Ohio counties to the watch.
The warm front is forecast to continue to lift northward later this
morning and should move into southern Indiana by midday. As this
occurs, a temporary break in precipitation is expected across much of
central Kentucky. However, additional strong convection is forecast
to be in western KY (Pennyrile area) ahead of the surface cold front
that will push through the region in the afternoon.
=====================================================
This Afternoon
=====================================================
As we move into the afternoon hours, we will shift gears from the
heavy rainfall to the gradient wind and severe weather potential
ahead of the approaching cold front. With the aforementioned
surface low deepening as it moves through SE IL and into central IN
this afternoon, the pressure gradient will rapidly increase across
the region. Strong gradient winds are expected with wind gusts of
45-55 mph at times within the warm sector.
Ongoing convection across west-central KY is expected to move
eastward and is likely to increase in intensity as it approaches the
I-65 corridor by 18-19Z. The multi-model consensus from the CAMs
continue to advertise a strong QLCS squall line rapidly moving
across southern IN and central KY this afternoon. Model proximity
soundings still are showing an impressive 50-60kt low-level jet axis
just ahead of this front. There is still a bit of uncertainty on
how much instability will develop ahead of the line. It's possible
that we may see a gradient of instability develop from the I-65
corridor and points east with the best instability likely in areas
just east of I-65 extending over to the I-75 corrridor. As the
convective line moves through, strong wind gusts within the bowing
segments of the line should have no issue with transporting the
higher momentum air aloft down to the surface. Wind gusts within
the squall line may exceed 65-70 mph in some sections of the line as
it plows eastward. While wind damage will be the primary threat,
model soundings also show strong veered low-level flow with large
looping hodographs in the lowest 3km. So, within this QLCS,
embedded mesovortices with quick spin up tornadoes can not be ruled
out. While much of the CAM guidance is strongly suggestive of a
largely linear type line, some of the CAMs show the possibility of
discrete cells popping up ahead of the line. Should this scenario
play out, these cells would be supercellular in nature and pose at
tornadic risk.
Just behind the QLCS and front, a period of intense gradient winds
still looks likely. The strength of the winds will be augmented by
just how much clearing may take place. A dry air punch may get into
the region and if some partial clearing were to take place, strong
mechanical mixing would take place to bring down the higher momentum
air to the surface. Within the squall line itself, 65-70 mph wind
gusts will be common especially in bowing segments. However, the
aforementioned mixing combined with strong isallobaric response just
behind the front may lead to a period of 60-65 mph wind gusts. For
now, the High Wind Warning area continues to cover the areas most
susceptible to this risk. Within the High Wind Warning area,
scattered to numerous power outages may occur due to the high winds.
While the trees are generally bare (given this time of the year),
trees may be more susceptible to falling this afternoon due to weak
stability given the excessively wet/saturated soils.
As for temperatures, highs today will range from the lower-mid 60s
across southern IN and northern Kentucky. Highs south of the
Parkways should warm into the upper 60s with some 70s down along the
KY/TN border region over into the Lake Cumberland area.
=====================================================
Tonight
=====================================================
Surface cold front will continue to move on off to the east rather
rapidly as the surface low continues to move from central IN into
northern Ohio. The pressure gradient will remain tight across the
region and wind gusts this evening of 40-45 mph will be common. We
expect these winds to rapidly diminish after midnight as the
gradient relaxes. Some low-level cloudiness and scattered rain
showers may transverse the region early this evening, but most
locations should be dry after midnight. Lows will dip into the
lower-mid 30s across southern IN and portions of north-central KY
with mid-upper 30s being common across southern KY.
=====================================================
River Flooding This Weekend
=====================================================
Excessive rainfall from this morning and this afternoon will likely
result in some minor river flooding in the hydro basins across
southern Indiana and portions of central Kentucky. In southern
Indiana, minor flooding is possible along the Blue and Muscatatuck
Rivers. In central KY, minor flooding may occur on the Green, Rough
River, Salt River, and Elkhorn Creek.
.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023
Saturday and Sunday...
By Saturday morning, the system which will bring the active weather
on Friday will be moving off the New England coast, with sfc high
pressure moving into the Ohio Valley in its wake. While a few clouds
may linger east of I-65 Saturday morning, as the center of the high
moves overhead Saturday afternoon, mostly sunny skies and light
winds are expected. These sunny skies will help temperatures warm
into the mid-to-upper 50s across much of the region, with a few
lower 60s possible across southern KY Saturday afternoon. Saturday
night into Sunday, upper-level ridging will build between the
Mississippi Valley and the Appalachian Mountains as sfc high
pressure gradually moves off to the east. Light SE winds and
increasing thicknesses will send temperatures up into mid-60s, with
mostly sunny skies continuing across the region.
Monday - Tuesday Night...
While the overall mid- and upper-level flow pattern will remain
relatively zonal through mid-week, a weak shortwave within synoptic-
scale troughing across the western CONUS will eject east-
northeastward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Monday.
An associated surface low is progged to move from western KS
northeastward to the Great Lakes, with sfc cold front trailing to
the SW. As this disturbance approaches the region on Monday, winds
will become breezy out of the S/SW as the low-level pressure/height
gradient tightens. With this warm return flow in place, Monday
should be the warmest day in the extended forecast period, with
highs reaching the low-to-mid 70s. With moisture return ahead of the
approaching cold front appearing to be subdued, not expecting much
more than scattered showers with cold FROPA Monday night into
Tuesday morning. QPF amounts will also be light, with generally less
than 0.10" expected. In the wake of the cold front, dry weather
returns for much of Tuesday and Tuesday night, with temperatures
remaining fairly mild, though cooler than on Monday.
Wednesday and beyond...
Forecast confidence continues to remain fairly low from the middle
of next week and beyond as model solutions diverge somewhat.
However, there are broad trends which have higher confidence as we
head through late next week and into next weekend. First,
temperatures should trend downward from the middle of next week into
next weekend as large-scale troughing is favored by medium-to-long
range guidance across the eastern half of the CONUS. The ECMWF
continues to favor a transition to a highly-positive PNA pattern by
next weekend, while the GFS delays/mutes this transition later into
mid-March. Tend to favor the ECMWF solution as it has been fairly
consistent over the past few runs. Second, as this transition period
is occurring, there should be chances for precipitation during the
late week period next week. With cooler air returning, mixed
precipitation types cannot be ruled out, although the solution
currently favored in most guidance would see cold air chasing the
moisture out. Definitely something worth watching as we head through
the weekend and into next week.
&&
.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1250 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023
IMPACTS:
* A couple lines of strong to severe storms into early evening
* Very strong gradient winds of 60+ mph outside of thunderstorms,
will diminish later this evening into tonight
DISCUSSION:
Widespread showers and embedded storms continue along and west of I-
65, with the first line of strong to severe storms beginning to push
into central KY. Behind this line, expect brief clearing before a
second line of storms moves through. In general, expect storms to
push east of the area by 03/22-23Z. Within stronger thunderstorms,
gusts of 70+ mph will be possible along with torrential rainfall and
reduced visibilities.
Outside of storms, gusts of 55-65 mph will be possible, especially
in areas that are able to see some clearing. These strong, gusty
winds will continue into this evening before gradually winding down
tonight. Ceilings will generally be MVFR to IFR into tonight with
brief breaks into VFR possible. CIGs will then gradually clear
overnight and into tomorrow morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
KYZ023>043-045.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday for
KYZ023>026-032.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
KYZ027>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Flood Watch until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
Update...JML
Short Term...MJ
Long Term....CSG
Aviation...JMLHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 737 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 KYZ046>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082-041245- Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison- Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair- Russell-Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 737 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 /637 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A very strong weather system will move through the region today. Strong gusty winds, strong to severe thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall are expected with this weather system. The main severe weather threats today will be damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated tornadoes. Even outside of thunderstorms, wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible. Please reference the multiple watch, warning, and advisory products for further details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is likely today. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. KYZ028>031-033>043-045-041245- Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison- Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson- Including the cities of Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, and Bardstown 737 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A very strong weather system will move through the region today. Strong gusty winds, strong to severe thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall are expected with this weather system. The main severe weather threats today will be damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated tornadoes. Even outside of thunderstorms, wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible. Please reference the multiple watch, warning, and advisory products for further details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is likely today. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ032-041245- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Trimble- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Bedford, and Milton 737 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 /637 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023/ ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A very strong weather system will move through the region today. Strong gusty winds, strong to severe thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall are expected with this weather system. The main severe weather threats today will be damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated tornadoes. Even outside of thunderstorms, wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will be possible. Please reference the multiple watch, warning, and advisory products for further details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is likely today. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. KYZ061-062-070>072-041245- Butler-Edmonson-Logan-Warren-Simpson- Including the cities of Morgantown, Brownsville, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, and Providence 637 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...TORNADO WATCH 60 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A very strong weather system will move through the region today. Strong gusty winds, strong to severe thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall are expected with this weather system. The main severe weather threats today will be damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated tornadoes. Even outside of thunderstorms, wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible. Please reference the multiple watch, warning, and advisory products for further details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is likely today. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. KYZ027-041245- Grayson- Including the city of Leitchfield 637 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON... ...TORNADO WATCH 60 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A very strong weather system will move through the region today. Strong gusty winds, strong to severe thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall are expected with this weather system. The main severe weather threats today will be damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated tornadoes. Even outside of thunderstorms, wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible. Please reference the multiple watch, warning, and advisory products for further details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is likely today. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. KYZ023>026-041245- Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio- Including the cities of Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, and Hartford 737 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 /637 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023/ ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON... ...TORNADO WATCH 60 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A very strong weather system will move through the region today. Strong gusty winds, strong to severe thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall are expected with this weather system. The main severe weather threats today will be damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated tornadoes. Even outside of thunderstorms, wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will be possible. Please reference the multiple watch, warning, and advisory products for further details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is likely today. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. MJ/CSG
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1052 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0937 AM HEAVY RAIN CORYDON 38.21N 86.12W
03/03/2023 M3.05 INCH HARRISON IN PUBLIC
SINCE MIDNIGHT. REPORT RELAYED VIA TWITTER.
&&
MKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1146 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1044 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 WSW LANESVILLE 38.22N 86.04W
03/03/2023 HARRISON IN 911 CALL CENTER
DELAYED REPORT: FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ON
NEW MIDDLETOWN RD.
&&
CJPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1147 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1045 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNW BUENA VISTA 38.08N 86.00W
03/03/2023 HARRISON IN 911 CALL CENTER
DELAYED REPORT: FLASH FLOODING ON UNION
CHAPEL ROAD.
&&
CJPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1152 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1124 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 S GREENVILLE 38.34N 85.98W
03/03/2023 FLOYD IN 911 CALL CENTER
DISPATCH REPORTS FLASH FLOODING AT JOHN
PECTOL RD AND HAMBY RD.
&&
CJPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1222 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1145 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNW JASPER 38.41N 86.94W
03/03/2023 DUBOIS IN 911 CALL CENTER
DELAYED REPORT: FLASH FLOODING ON SUNSET
DRIVE.
&&
CJPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1225 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1145 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW DUBOIS 38.44N 86.80W
03/03/2023 DUBOIS IN 911 CALL CENTER
DELAYED REPORT: FLASH FLOODING ON DUBOIS RD
HALF MILE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 545.
&&
CJPThe Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 82 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:29 UTC.
49 high wind, 9 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
High winds caused a tractor trailer to overturn on the exit ramp from Interstate 165. Several gusts above 60 mph were observed at various mesonet and ASOS sites across the county, with the peak gust of 69 mph observed at KBWG ASOS.
Trees and power lines were blown down near Cave City.
Mesonet station 1578W Logan Aluminum observed a 65 mph wind gust.
High winds caused scattered damage to electrical infrastructure across Simpson County. Additionally, a tractor trailer was blown over on Kentucky Route 100 west of Franklin. Kentucky Mesonet site SWZR observed several wind gusts over 58 mph, with a peak gust of 71 mph.
High winds caused scattered tree and power line damage across Russellville and Logan County, which also resulted in power outages. Mesonet site 1578W Logan Aluminum observed a 67 mph wind gust.
Trees were blown down along Knob Lick Road near Edmonton.
Kentucky Mesonet station WDBY observed a 59 mph wind gust.
Breckinridge County Kentucky Mesonet station HARD observed a 75 mph wind gust.
Kentucky Mesonet site BRND measured a 63 mph wind gust. Scattered tree damage due to high winds was also observed, including one large tree which was blown over onto a parked truck near Payneville.
Meade County Kentucky Mesonet Station BRND observed a 63 mph wind gust.
Kentucky Mesonet site CCLA observed multiple wind gusts above 60 mph, with the peak gust reaching 68 mph. Additionally, scattered damage due to high winds was observed across Hardin County.
Trees and power lines were damaged by high winds across Breckinridge County. Additionally, one roof was blown off a home by the high winds.
Kentucky Mesonet station HDYV observed a 64 mph wind gust. Another observing station in Hart County also recorded a 64 mph wind gust.
Scattered tree damage due to high winds was observed across Edmonson County. One tree in the Rocky Hill community fell on a shed while a man was inside.
Scattered power outages, tree damage, and roof damage due to high winds occurred across Grayson County. A 64 mph wind gust was observed at Mesonet station AV189 Leitchfield.
Kentucky Mesonet site GAMA observed a 60 mph wind gust.
Half of the metal roof on a pole barn was blown off.
High winds blew off part of the roof of the terminal at Blue Grass Field. The fragments of the roof ended up striking the tower, and the airport also lost power. Scattered tree and power line damage was also observed across Fayette County. Multiple wind gusts over 60 mph were observed, with the peak gust reaching 72 mph at Kentucky Mesonet site LXGN.
Trees and power lines were downed by high winds on the 1200 block of North Keene Road.
Scattered tree and power line damage due to high winds was observed across Allen County. At least one traffic accident was also related to the high winds.
Two observing sites in Barren County recorded wind gusts above 60 mph. The peak wind gust of 66 mph was observed at Mesonet station 0857W 1.5 S Glasgow.
Trees were blown down along Bourbon Acres Road, in addition to other locations across Bourbon County.
Several structures sustained siding and roof damage, with trees in the area blown down from west-southwest to east-northeast.
ASOS sites KSDF and KLOU both observed multiple wind gusts above 60 mph, with peak gusts of 79 mph observed at both locations. Scattered damage due to high winds was also observed across the county. Most notably, a Cessna 150 that was parked and tied down was flipped over by high winds at Bowman Field.
Scattered downed trees and power lines due to high winds were observed across Metcalfe County. Additionally, Kentucky Mesonet site RNDH measured multiple gusts above 60 mph, with the peak gust reaching 66 mph.
Scattered tree and power line damage due to high winds was observed across Green County.
Trees were blown down along Lake Road near Campbellsburg.
Kentucky Mesonet site BNGL observed multiple wind gusts above 60 mph, with a peak gust of 71 mph.
Scattered damage to trees and power lines due to high winds was observed across Spencer County. Two barns sustained roof damage on Fairgrounds Road and Plum Ridge Road.
High winds resulted in multiple barns being damaged or destroyed in Henry County. Additionally, scattered tree and power line damage was also observed.
High winds resulted in the destruction of two barns in Trimble County, one off of Trout Ridge Road and the other off of Sulfur-Bedford Road. Additionally, scattered tree damage was observed across Trimble County.
One building in Burkesville sustained structural damage as a result of high winds. Additionally, scattered tree and power line damage was observed across Cumberland County.
Observing site measured a 64 mph wind gust.
Kentucky Mesonet site CMBA observed multiple wind gusts above 60 mph, including a peak gust of 67 mph.
Trees were blown down along Harpers Ferry Road.
Kentucky Mesonet site FCHV observed a 65 mph wind gust.
Kentucky Mesonet site LRTO measured multiple wind gusts above 60 mph, with the peak gust reaching 67 mph.
Roof damage from high winds occurred on Main Street in Springfield, with scattered tree damage also being observed across Washington County.
Kentucky Mesonet site CRMT observed a 60 mph wind gust. Additional instances of damage due to high winds were observed across Bullitt County.
Kentucky Mesonet station HDGV measured a 58 mph wind gust.
Kentucky Mesonet site HRDB observed a 73 mph wind gust.
Kentucky Mesonet site DANV observed a 63 mph wind gust.
Multiple observing sites across Franklin County recorded wind gusts above 60 mph, with KFFT ASOS reporting a peak wind gust of 68 mph, while Kentucky Mesonet site LSML reported a peak wind gust of 70 mph.
Tree, power line, and minor structural damage was caused by high winds in Hawesville and across Hancock County.
More than 150 instances of tree and power line damage due to high winds were observed across Ohio County.
AWOS site K27K Georgetown measured a wind gust of 70 mph. Additionally, scattered tree damage from high winds was observed across Scott County.
Scattered tree and power line damage from high winds was observed across Madison County.
Scattered tree and power line damage from high winds was observed in Cynthiana and across Harrison County. Minor structural damage was also observed.
Scattered tree and power line damage from high winds was observed in Paris, North Middletown, and across other portions of Bourbon County.
Kentucky Mesonet site WNCH observed a 63 mph wind gust.
Kentucky Mesonet site CARL measured a 68 mph wind gust.
Kentucky Mesonet site LGRN observed a 59 mph wind gust.
Kentucky Mesonet site LGNT observed a 61 mph wind gust.
Kentucky Mesonet site WOOD observed a 61 mph wind gust.
Trees blown over by high winds brought down electrical wires, resulting in the temporary closure of US Route 127.
Kentucky Mesonet site PCWN observed a 59 mph wind gust.
Scattered tree and power line damage due to high winds was observed across Garrard County. Maupin Road was temporarily impassable due to trees and power lines down across the road.
Several buildings in Lawrenceburg were temporarily closed due to structural damage from high winds, while debris from wind damage caused several roads across Anderson County to be temporarily closed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1089886, 1089426, 1089432, 1089885, 1089884, 1089427, 1089883, 1089435, 1089890, 1089437, 1089895, 1089889, 1089894, 1089887, 1089888, 1089906, 1089923, 1089936, 1089924, 1089891, 1089893, 1089428, 1089431, 1089897, 1089907, 1089908, 1089429, 1089913, 1089900, 1089904, 1089905, 1089909, 1089899, 1089910, 1089430, 1089901, 1089914, 1089916, 1089896, 1089898, and more.