A slow-moving cold front plodded southeastward into western Kentucky during the evening hours of June 25th. Thunderstorms developed along this boundary across the Lower Ohio Valley, grew upscale and became a cold-pool driven line with embedded supercells.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A slow-moving cold front plodded southeastward into western Kentucky during the evening hours of June 25th. Thunderstorms developed along this boundary across the Lower Ohio Valley, grew upscale and became a cold-pool driven line with embedded supercells. These storms dropped southeast across Central Kentucky through a high instability environment before encountering a more stable air mass east of the Pottsville Escarpment. This led to a gradual weakening of the line of storms once they moved into the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields but not before producing dozens of wind damage reports.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 8:07 PM EST, 1 hour 54 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 907 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 907 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2023 ...SEVERE RISK LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT, I-75 WESTWARD MOST STRONGLY FAVORED... Strong low-level capping, evident in the 18z sounding from ILN, in the wake of a weak MCS earlier in the day has kept convection at bay over eastern Kentucky through the afternoon and much of the evening. Regional radar now shows the remnants of former showers and storms moving into the northwestern one third of the CWA, but this activity is struggling to maintain more than moderate radar returns as it has apparently lost its surface-based characteristics. Dew points over most locations east of I-75 are in the mid and upper 60s but range through the 70s further west. This corresponds well with instability which ranges from barely a 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE along the Virginia border to 2,000 J/kg+ over southcentral Kentucky. The latest mesoanalysis shows the cold front dropping across the Lower Ohio River. Convection is initiating and consolidating into a line just ahead of the front where the low-level capping is minimized. A theta-e ridge axis extends from Western/Middle Tennessee northward into western and central Kentucky just ahead of this convection. Meanwhile, dry air in the mid-levels is leading to cold downdrafts which are likely consolidating into a cold pool under the ongoing convection across the Lower Ohio Valley. Latest HRRR and 18z NAMNEST guidance shows the ongoing convection becoming cold pool driven, and dropping southward into the aforementioned theta-e ridge axis (where there is the greatest instability -- fuel for the storms). For our CWA, the best combination of instability and shear, favors the strongest thunderstorm activity occurring in counties along and and west of I-75. Damaging winds remain the primary hazard with gusts of 60+ mph a concern west of I-75. East of I-75, considerably greater capping/PBL stabilization and less instability aloft will favor weaker showers and storms, although isolated to perhaps widely scattered instances of severe weather, primarily wind, cannot be ruled out. Additionally, a brief spinup tornado or severe hail (1 inch or greater diameter) cannot be ruled out with any rotating updrafts; however, the anticipated linear cold-pool driven nature of this convection should limit this potential. Progressive storm motion should minimize the potential for high water concerns, though an isolated instance of high water cannot be ruled out as well. && .UPDATE... Issued at 810 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2023 Some uncertainties remain with the evolution of convection this evening into the overnight hours. Convection earlier today led to some stabilization across the region and a cap near the 850 mb level, though late day sun led to some recovery, especially in the west and northwest. CAMS have struggled a bit with the convective trends upstream. A more robust cell southeast of LMK in central KY appears headed toward the southwest portion of the CWA over the next few hours as it holds together, while additional convection has developed closer to the front in a more unstable environment somewhat in line with some of the recent HRRR runs. MLCAPE and MUCAPE are greater in locations further west where more heating occurred and dewpoints are in the upper 60s to near 70 and southwestern portions of the area are nearer to a gradient in CAPE. Adequate shear is anticipated as the front and mid level shortwave approach late this evening into the overnight, with a decrease in instability for locations further east. The more robust convection should generally affect western and southwestern locations where HREF probabilities are greater and CAMS have more UH swaths, though wind gusts capable of some damage will be possible further east. The primary threat from convection remains wind. Some adjustments to pops have been made based on recent radar and convective allowing model trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 614 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2023 Key Points: * Severe weather threat this evening into the overnight hours. * Damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat, with large hail and an isolated tornado or two also possible. The latest upper level map features a very strong ridge centered over northern Mexico, with unseasonably strong low pressure found churning over southwest Wisconsin, with an arced short wave trough aligned north to south from Michigan through eastern Indiana. At the surface, low pressure is seen across eastern Wisconsin, with an occluded front arcing south, before a cold front takes over as it drapes southwest through southern Illinois and then southwest into portions of Missouri. Deep convection is firing out ahead of the front and upper level support. An outflow boundary from an earlier day complex of thunderstorms is positioned north northwest to south southeast across the western half of the Commonwealth. Clearing skies late in the day has allowed for some recovery across eastern Kentucky, with temperatures currently ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term, with low pressure gradually spiraling its way east across the Great Lakes, reaching Lake Huron by the end of the period, and reestablishing a deeper trough from the eastern Ohio Valley down through the southeastern CONUS by that time. At the surface, low pressure will remain nearly stacked underneath its upper level counterpart, with a cold front to push southeast through the Ohio Valley tonight into Monday, and then through the Deep South by Monday night. Robust convection looks to take aim at eastern Kentucky this evening into tonight, with most of the activity diminishing in the pre-dawn hours. A few showers and storms will refire across locations north of the Mountain Parkway Monday afternoon, with additional scattered convection threatening further south and southwest, as a secondary surface trough and upper level support rotate through Monday night. At least moderate instability of 1500-2500 J/kg MU CAPE, along with moderate to strong bulk shear of 40-55 kts build back into the region through this evening. CAMs have been showing varying solutions with the evolution of the convection, but in general continue to show a transition from more discrete cells that are currently ongoing, to more clusters or lines as this activity approaches our area. This would continue to favor more of a damaging wind threat, especially if storms can align more perpendicular to the 0-3 km bulk shear vectors, or more northeast to southwest oriented. Embedded large hail will also remain possible within the most robust updrafts. Additionally, given the increasing low level jet through the night, allowing for a notable uptick in both 0-1 km and 0-3 km SRH, this will support at least an isolated tornado threat, most likely in the form of a QLCS. The area of greatest concern continues to be more along the I-64 corridor, and perhaps even more so across locations along and west of I-75, which will likely see the best combination of better instability and shear eventually returning. Storms will gradually fizzle as they spread southeast with time, likely exiting before dawn. The cold front will pass through on Monday, with temperatures still rebounding into the lower 80s, and the threat of at least isolated convection in our north by the afternoon, given the ongoing cyclonic flow associated with the Great Lakes upper level low. Convection will continue to threaten Monday night, as the aforementioned secondary surface trough pushes southeast out of Ohio. Lows both tonight and Monday night will average in the mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 515 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2023 Better than usual agreement in synoptic model solutions leads to a fairly straight forward forecast...and discussion. Seeing a pattern shift aloft for the Upper 48. Ridging over the central U.S. will succumb to shortwave energy phasing across the Northern Tier and northern/central Plains through the period, and the eventual evolution of a trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes by the end of the extended. Sensible weather features relatively benign weather to start out the extended. System will be exiting the Ohio Valley with a surface cold front well to our south. A post frontal trough may be organized enough to generate a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon but there appears to be a trend towards a little lower PoPs. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep PoPs minimal through much of the week. As high pressure shifts eastward late in the week, return flow will allow for moisture to increase across the region, and along with that an increase in the threat of rain, though we are still only looking at low to slight chance PoPs (20-30%), near climatological summer time levels. PoPs increase more substantially as the weekend approaches and our next system rides in from the west, lifting a surface warm front across eastern Kentucky on Friday. This system will keep a higher threat of rain in the forecast through the end of the forecast window, and likely just beyond. Temperatures rebound strongly as this warm front lifts northeast through and out of the area, with afternoon highs climbing from seasonable mid 80s through the mid-week time frame into the 90s for Friday and Saturday. Not seeing any strong signals for hazardous type weather, other than some warm temperatures for the end of the extended. Dew points climbing into the 70s will make for some uncomfortably muggy weather. Summer finally arrives? Strong diurnal heating and marginal shear combined with ample surface moisture could be the right mix of ingredients for some stronger storms by the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2023 VFR conditions are expected initially at all TAF sites. However, convection over central KY and in advance of a cold front will approach and likely affect a good portion of the region during the first 6 hours of the period departing to the southeast by around 09Z. These storms will likely bring periods of MVFR if not a period of IFR or worse conditions at the terminals as they pass through the area, generally between 01 and 06z. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 kts or greater will occur with the more intense storms, with recent rends suggesting that KSME, KLOZ, and possibly KJKL having the greatest chance of experiencing these stronger winds. However, these have not been included in the TAFs due to uncertainty. Once the storms pass through, clouds will generally scatter out, with a return of VFR conditions. Outside of storms, winds should average from the southwest at 10KT or less during the first 12 hours of the period, before becoming more westerly near 10KT during the last 12 hours of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && MESOSCALE...GEERTSON UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 359 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 359 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight. Some storms could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. An isolated tornado or two will also be possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible within the strongest thunderstorms, resulting in the potential of some local high water issues, especially around typical flood prone areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible at times Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Thursday afternoon through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance will likely be needed tonight. HAL/GEOGERIAN/RAY
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:58 UTC.
32 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A member of the public reported a tree blown down along Wilderness road near the intersection with Flat Gap Road.
County dispatch reported trees blown down onto Winston Rd.
The public reported multiple trees blown down along KY-52 from Winston westward to the Madison/Estill county line.
The public reported a tree blown down onto Picnic Hill Rd.
A member of the public reported 10 trees blown down or snapped at a residence along Crooked Creek Rd.
A member of the public reported a tree blown down at the intersection of Red Lick Road and Maupin Hill Road.
County dispatch reported a tree blown down in the 3900 block of Red Lick Road.
A member of the public reported a tree blown down onto a privacy fence at a residence.
A member of the public reported a tree blown down near Stacy Lane Apartments on Stacy Lane Road.
A member of the public reported a tree blown down in the 400 block of Court Street.
A member of the public reported multiple trees blown down onto utility lines on Upper Dry Fork near Sandgap.
A member of the public reported multiple trees blown down and also damage to a carport along KY-1645 on the east side of Ravenna.
A member of the public reported multiple trees blown down on Spencer Ridge Road.
Broadcast media reported that a tree had been blown down onto a home in Beattyville.
The public reported multiple trees blown down or snapped in the vicinity of Holland Lane and Fox Hunters Knob.
A member of the public reported several trees blown down on Pine Grove Road in southern Lee County near the Owsley County line.
A member of the public reported a tree blown down on Litton Town Road.
Pictures show large limbs blown and trees snapped and uprooted in the 2700 block of Fish Creek School Road.
A member of the public reported a tree blown down onto KY-11 near the Owsley/Clay county line.
A member of the public reported two trees blown down at a residence near Lerose.
A member of the public reported approximately half-dollar sized (1.25 inch) hail near Lerose.
A member of the public reported two trees blown down near the mouth of Bowling Creek.
The highway department reported a tree blown down onto Roosevelt Vaught Road.
A member of the public reported multiple trees blown down in the Bugwood community.
The county highway department reported a tree blown down onto Roberts Port Road.
The KEKQ AWOS measured a 51 knot thunderstorm wind gust.
County dispatch reported a tree blown down on Pine Top Road.
County dispatch reported multiple trees blown down onto KY-92 east of Monticello in the vicinity of Oil Valley.
County dispatch reported tree blown down on US-27.
The public reported tree blown down on Cumberland Falls Highway near the intersection with KY-90.
A member of the public reported trees blown down along KY-190 near Hatfield Gap or approximately 4 miles north of Clairfield, Tennessee.
County dispatch reported a tree blown down along KY-988 about a half mile from KY-217.
County dispatch reported a couple of trees blown down in the Brownies Creek community near the intersection of KY-987 and KY-217.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1110072, 1110021, 1110026, 1110029, 1110034, 1110036, 1110050, 1110052, 1110053, 1110054, 1110055, 1110057, 1110065, 1110134, 1110127, 1110139, 1110178, 1110155, 1110165, 1110159, 1110162, 1110181, 1110182, 1110189, 1110185, 1110191, 1110187, 1110192, 1110195, 1110198, 1110199, 1110218, 1110228.