A line of thunderstorms developed over the Lower Ohio Valley during the mid-afternoon hours of the 24th with a few dozen instances of wind damage being reported from Southern Ohio back into far eastern Missouri. As those storms settled southeast into the foothills of eastern Kentucky during the mid and late evening, they encountered a more stable environment and weakened.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms developed over the Lower Ohio Valley during the mid-afternoon hours of the 24th with a few dozen instances of wind damage being reported from Southern Ohio back into far eastern Missouri. As those storms settled southeast into the foothills of eastern Kentucky during the mid and late evening, they encountered a more stable environment and weakened. However, a one robust storm cell was still strong enough to produce two instances of wind damage in Bath County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 6:22 PM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 722 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 721 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2023 Early evening update is being sent out to speed up arrival of higher (chance) PoPs in association with approaching storms from the west and northwest. Used primarily a blend of 1-hr NBM, GFS1hr, and 18z NAMNest for PoPs and QPF. No other significant changes were made. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 418 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2023 A disturbance aloft is moving southeast from the Upper Midwest and is expected to enter central portions of the Ohio Valley tonight. Thunderstorms are firing to our west and northwest late this afternoon as a result. Guidance does suggest increasing coverage of storms to our west and northwest through the late afternoon and evening. The 12Z SPC HREF is showing a low probability, but none the less some potential for some stronger updrafts along and just south of the Ohio River, possibly kissing our Bluegrass counties as well. MLCAPE (~2000 J/kg) combined with marginal effective shear of 20-25 kts may allow for a strong storm or two late this afternoon for areas closer to the Ohio River. At this time this threat of severe thunderstorms remains just north and west of our forecast area. Time will tell if anything manages to drop far enough southeast to impact any of our area. Did include some strong thunderstorm wording in the HWO for the potential, which is expected to be mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor. Recent runs of the hrrr do keep the bulk of activity to our north and further west though there is some redevelopment across eastern portions of our forecast area late tonight. However, by then there is an even less favorable storm environment in place for severe weather across eastern Kentucky. In addition, any activity appears to become more elevated, less surface based with time. After a relative lull in the threat of rain around dawn Tuesday, the threat of storms increases a bit again as the aforementioned short wave disturbance tracks out of the Ohio Valley. Thus have low end chance PoPs (~30%) lingering a bit through the day Tuesday for good measure. Difficult to say how much fog we will see overnight, which will depend greatly on any convection that develops, and lingering cloud cover (debris) from shower and thunderstorm activity overnight. At present kept fog going in our river valleys but the forecast may be a bit pessimistic overall with extent. In addition, overnight lows could be a bit too cool depending on trends with overnight rainfall. Either way, sensible weather is expected to be quite warm and muggy tomorrow as afternoon highs approach 90 with dew points around 70, the first day of a string of hot and uncomfortably sticky days. It is summer after all. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 354 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2023 There is reasonable model agreement through at least the first few days of the long term period. Strong upper level ridging over the southwest CONUS will build eastward and result in rising geopotential heights for our region as an eastern CONUS trough continues to retreat northward. However, the ridge does not make a complete merger with the Bermuda high, leaving a weakness or col over the southeast CONUS. This weakness may still allow for some isolated convection at times, despite the building heights. Aside from any limited cooling from convective precip, the rising heights will result in climbing temps, probably bringing the hottest readings of the summer thus far. During the weekend and early next week a series of upper level waves moving through the flow in eastern Canada and New England is expected to suppress the ridging southward. This would allow a cold front to move into KY from the north late in the weekend, providing a focus for potential convective development. Models are struggling with the progress of the front at the end of the period, with uncertainty as to whether it makes it through the area or stalls. Have continued a mention of precip through Monday, albeit with a lower POP due to the uncertainty of whether drier air can arrive and kill precip potential. The increase in clouds, POP, and potential frontal passage should result in at least slightly lower temps from the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2023 A line of generally weakening showers and thunderstorms will move across the region through 06z, with expected clearing behind it allowing for the formation of fog, possibly becoming dense between 09z and 12z Tuesday morning. Fog should burn off with mostly clear skies through midday before scattered low to mid-level clouds develop for the remainder of the period with a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Other than some gusty winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms, winds are expected to be light, generally below 5 kts. However, southwest gradient winds (5-10 kts) develop by tomorrow afternoon as high pressure slides off to our east. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...CMC
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 357 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-251100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 357 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...through tonight. Thunderstorms are possible. A few storms could become strong through this evening, producing gusty winds and large hail. The greatest threat for strong storms would exist mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor through this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible at times Tuesday through Sunday, mainly during afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. HAL/RAY
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
753 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
KYZ044-051-250045-
Bath KY-Fleming KY-
753 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Bath and
Fleming Counties through 845 PM EDT...
At 752 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rome to near Tollesboro to Lewisburg to
near Fairview to near Carlisle. Movement was east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Flemingsburg, Bethel, Tilton, Pecks Ridge, Sherburne, Craintown,
Mount Carmel, Pebble, Wallingford, Oakley, Odessa, Hillsboro,
Foxport, Poplar Plains, Grange City, Wyoming, Ringos Mills,
Goddard, Plummers Landing, Sharkey and Muses Mills.
THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers
128 and 129.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3849 8359 3843 8358 3840 8348 3838 8345
3835 8350 3827 8351 3821 8357 3819 8364
3817 8359 3815 8362 3825 8391 3830 8385
3834 8384 3836 8388 3835 8390 3836 8392
3845 8398 3849 8393 3846 8385 3852 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 279DEG 31KT 3866 8334 3862 8357 3857 8376 3851
8397 3836 8408
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CMCThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 84 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:24 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reportedly blown down blocking Rooster Run Road southeast of the community of Bethel.
A tree was blown down on Kendall Springs Road a few miles north of the Preston community.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1123104, 1123111.