An isolated severe thunderstorm quickly formed over northwest Kentucky in the heat of the afternoon. The storm pulsed up to severe levels for a brief time, with damaging winds downing trees on houses.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
An isolated severe thunderstorm quickly formed over northwest Kentucky in the heat of the afternoon. The storm pulsed up to severe levels for a brief time, with damaging winds downing trees on houses. The storm formed ahead of a cold front that trailed southwest across central Missouri from a low pressure center over the Great Lakes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 2:06 PM CST, 1 hour 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 306 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The main concerns in the short-term portion of the forecast will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday evening with continued hot and humid conditions. Overall confidence in convective timing and placement Tonight through Saturday: A strong shortwave associated with ongoing convection over central into eastern Kansas this afternoon, is progged to shift east and southeastward overnight. This would bring the decaying remnants to the Quad State very late tonight into early Saturday morning. Most of the hi-res guidance diminishes the storms as they progress eastward, so confidence in the overall coverage and intensity is low. If it does hold together, a few stronger storms could work into western portions of the area later tonight, especially after midnight. Any showers/storms associated with this feature should push east of the area by mid morning. A weak frontal boundary will also pass through the area through early afternoon, which may help to focus additional showers or storms. Shear and instability look to be fairly weak, so not expecting much storm organization for Saturday. Highs will be in the 80s for most locations with overnight lows in the 70s. After the frontal boundary passes through the area expect slightly less humid air to arrive Saturday night into Sunday (it will still be hot) while northwest flow lingers aloft. HRRR smoke products also bring smoke from Canadian wildfires south through a good portion of the area late Saturday night through Sunday; therefore, have added haze to the forecast and issued an Air Quality Alert for southwest Indiana. Again, that alert is for Sunday. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Northwest flow will linger through the first part of the work week; however, brief ridging is expected to arrive for Wednesday into Thursday. A couple shortwaves are expected to brush through the northern portions of the Quad State area, which will give additional chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Again, timing and placement of these waves are difficult at best to pin down this early. At this point have kept mainly an afternoon/evening mention in the forecast during peak heating. Heavy rain and a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with increased shear and instability with each wave that passes through the area. The increased ridging across the area Wednesday into Thursday will allow temperatures to soar! Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s and low 90s for Monday and Tuesday before warming into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees for Wednesday into Thursday. Heat Index values will likely warm to near 110 degrees or so for Wednesday into Thursday and much of the area will likely need a Heat Advisory at a minimum. A few thunderstorms will be possible across the north, but overall coverage may be limited due to the warmer air aloft. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The main concerns with this TAF issuance is convection coverage this afternoon and tonight. Overall, guidance is trending toward less overall coverage this afternoon with a complex of storms passing south of the CWA and well south of the TAF sites. A few pop up storms are still possible, but confidence is very low in any impact at the TAF sites this afternoon/evening. Later in the night, a decaying MCS is still expected to approach from the west, bringing a little better chance for thunderstorm activity near the TAF sites. Added VCTS to account for the potential, but it does largely depend on how much of the MCS remains, especially at EVV/OWB. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...KC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 326 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-152030- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 326 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 /426 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through this evening before more widespread storms arrive throughout the region overnight. Any stray storm may produce damaging winds or hail this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday A chance of thunderstorms is forecast Saturday, mainly over eastern portions of the region. Locally heavy downpours and lightning will be the primary concerns. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will lead to poor air quality late Saturday night through Sunday. See the latest Air Quality Alert for details. A chance of thunderstorms is forecast for all or a portion of the region Sunday night through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns; although, a few strong to severe storms will also be possible. As temperatures soar into the upper 90s over the Quad State area Wednesday and Thursday, heat indices will top out in the 105 to 110 degree range. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation cannot be completely ruled out over southeast Missouri through tonight.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
311 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023
ILZ075-142030-
Jefferson IL-
311 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Jefferson County through 330 PM CDT...
At 310 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Centralia, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Jefferson County, including the following locations... Walnut Hill.
This includes Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 104 and
105.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3839 8903 3847 8910 3848 8908 3848 8891
3847 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 228DEG 20KT 3847 8904
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
421 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023
KYZ018-142145-
Henderson KY-
421 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Henderson County through 445 PM CDT...
At 420 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Robards, or near Henderson, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Henderson.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 138 and 148.
Audubon Parkway between Mile Markers 1 and 3.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3768 8741 3767 8745 3767 8747 3766 8748
3765 8752 3764 8757 3776 8770 3784 8755
3770 8740
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 234DEG 10KT 3775 8759
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DWThe Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:31 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A microburst occurred on U.S. Highway 41 in the Robards area, then spread westward a short distance on Highway 416. Three trees were down on houses, and one tree was down on a car.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1105052.