Damaging Wind in Kansas, July 24, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1000 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Forecast concerns overnight tonight are on thunderstorm potential,
severity and areal coverage.

At 0230z the forecast area was under cirrus cloud cover with a few
thunderstorms entering far western Cheyenne county Colorado from
the west. These storms have had a history of wind gusts generally
up to 50 mph. DCAPE values per SPC mesoanalysis are around 1800
J/KG. Further north toward the North Platte area, we're watching
scattered strong thunderstorms slowly moving toward the south.
These storms are near a MLCAPE gradient of 3000 to 4000 J/KG and
downstream DCAPE values around 1900.

For the rest of tonight, the latest HRRR model run (01z) maintains
the prior several runs of pushing the Colorado activity slowly
east, perhaps into western Kansas along a surface trough. The
greater concern is focused on the activity currently north of the
area. This activity is forecast to continue moving south-
southeast, perhaps due south per Bunkers right moving storms
forecast. This would be near the fairly extreme instability axis.
The 01z run of the HRRR has really decreased the wind gust
potential below severe criteria while the prior several runs had
gusts well in excess of severe criteria. All other hi-res 00z
model solutions had no thunderstorm activity at all. Given the
current radar mosaic, the HRRR is handling things better.

For the evening update, I've incorporated the latest HRRR run,
capping pops at 40% for now. As the activity gets closer and we
get more data, I may up pops accordingly. The primary hazard will
be wind gusts in excess of 60 mph but could be lowered if later
HRRR runs suggest it.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Similar to yesterday, but with even more uncertainty, is the
potential for thunderstorm development this afternoon and into
this evening. Northwest flow continues with nebulous forcing aloft
along with weak convergence boundaries at the surface, either of
which could be sufficient for convective initiation almost
anywhere in the forecast area. Environment is supportive of
supercells with effective shear of 40-50 kts and MLCAPE of
1500-2500 j/kg. CAMs have been all over the place as far as
guidance is concerned, and were not very good yesterday, so
confidence in any particular model or model run is very low.
Tonight, upstream storms rotating over the ridge may survive the
trek southeast and enter the area late as a low level jet tries to
develop. Otherwise, expecting mostly clear skies and low
temperatures in the 60s.

For Monday through Wednesday, upper ridge builds over the area
from the west with temperatures rising into the upper 90s and
lower 100s. Maxes may be tempered just a bit with all of the
recent rainfall and lack of stronger southwesterly component in
the surface winds to aid in downslope warming. Considered a Heat
Advisory for Norton and Graham counties in northwest Kansas where
forecast yields heat index maximum of 103 on Monday, just shy of
the criteria of 105. So, will hold off and let next shifts take a
closer look. There is a low chance that storms rotating around the
ridge will move into northern areas Monday night from Wyoming and
northern Colorado, but expecting most if not all locations to
remain dry on Monday. However, by Tuesday and Wednesday will see
some low chances of storms as the ridge flattens and allows
convection initiating on the higher terrain to the west to have a
chance to make it as far as the Kansas and Colorado border area.
Shear and instability forecasts are not particularly impressive
either day at this time, suggesting the probability for severe
storms will be low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Long range guidance indicates that a robust upper level ridge..
situated over the 4-Corners, Rockies and Central/Southern Plains..
will persist late this week through the upcoming weekend. The
location and orientation of the ridge (per 12Z GFS/ECMWF guidance)
suggest that the mid-latitude westerlies (and any small amplitude
waves therein) will largely be relegated to higher latitudes (e.g.
north of I-80). While isolated/scattered diurnal convection may
develop on the lee slopes of the Colorado Front Range and adjacent
portions of the Palmer Divide during the late afternoon hours on
any given day.. synoptic environments characterized by weak
steering flow tend to confine/anchor such development in close
proximity to the mountains. With moderate to strong instability
and DCAPE over the region throughout this period, downstream
propagation into the Tri-State area cannot be ruled out,
especially from the northwest and north (i.e. eastern WY and NE
Panhandle) -- in closer proximity to the westerlies -- where
convective organization and outflow consolidation are [relatively]
more likely to arise. With the above in mind, expect above
average temperatures and below average chances for precipitation
(convection).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A south
wind around 10kts at taf issuance is forecast to veer to the
southwest at similar speeds by 14z, becoming light and variable
from 15z-21z. After 22z, winds establish an easterly component at
speeds up to 10kts, veering to the southeast then south through
the rest of the taf period.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Convection
may be ongoing at taf issuance through about 07z with wind gusts
up to 45kts or so possible along with a brief period of moderate
to heavy rain which could create sub VFR cigs. After 08z, winds
generally light and variable with speeds up to 7kts or so.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
930 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-241200-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
930 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023 /1030 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across a majority
of the Tri-State area. Although an isolated thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out at any time tonight, the better chance appears to be after
10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT) along and east of a line from Trenton to Colby
and Oakley. The primary hazard with any thunderstorm that develops
will be wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail below one inch in diameter.
A brief period of blowing dust with reduced visibilities will be
possible if the strong gusts materialize.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

An extended period of hot temperatures are expected across the area
through next week. Heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range
are forecast generally east of Kansas Highway 25 Monday through
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed. We would appreciate any
reports of severe weather via telephone and social media.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1032 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023

NEZ079>081-240530-
Red Willow NE-Hitchcock NE-Dundy NE-
1032 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Red Willow,
Hitchcock and Dundy Counties through 1130 PM MDT/1230 AM CDT/...

At 1031 PM MDT/1131 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles east of Hayes
Center to 17 miles north of Haigler. Movement was southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of western Red
Willow, Hitchcock and Dundy Counties, including the following
locations... Parks and Max.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 10058 4000 10205 4035 10205 4035 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 308DEG 18KT 4051 10093 4027 10197

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1103 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023

KSZ001>003-NEZ079>081-240545-
Rawlins KS-Decatur KS-Cheyenne KS-Red Willow NE-Hitchcock NE-
Dundy NE-
1103 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Cheyenne,
Rawlins and northern Decatur Counties in northwestern Kansas, Red
Willow, Hitchcock and Dundy Counties in southwestern Nebraska through
1145 PM MDT/1245 AM CDT/...

At 1103 PM MDT/1203 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Cambridge to near
Haigler. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  St. Francis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 10018 3973 10110 3973 10176 3984 10205
      4035 10205 4035 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0503Z 315DEG 23KT 4030 10021 4000 10198

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1252 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

KSZ004-240615-
Norton KS-
1252 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Norton
County through 115 AM CDT...

At 1252 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Norton, moving south at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Lenora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 10015 3998 9992 3958 9975 3958 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0552Z 346DEG 36KT 3989 10001

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DDT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1208 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 N Atwood              39.84N 101.04W
07/24/2023  M51 MPH          Rawlins            KS   Mesonet

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
110 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

KSZ002-003-014-015-240645-
Rawlins KS-Sheridan KS-Decatur KS-Thomas KS-
110 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Thomas,
Rawlins, northwestern Sheridan and southwestern Decatur Counties
through 145 AM CDT...

At 109 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Herndon to 12 miles southeast of McDonald.
Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Colby.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 52 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 10075 3968 10025 3923 10094 3961 10137
      3986 10125
TIME...MOT...LOC 0609Z 325DEG 34KT 3990 10080 3962 10127

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
123 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

KSZ002-014-015-240700-
Rawlins KS-Sheridan KS-Thomas KS-
123 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Thomas,
southeastern Rawlins and west central Sheridan Counties through 200
AM CDT...

At 123 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Atwood, moving south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Rexford and Gem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 10074 3957 10074 3957 10072 3956 10071
      3933 10056 3923 10089 3968 10103 3978 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 339DEG 27KT 3971 10094

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DDT