Flash Flooding and Hail in Kansas, July 14, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Forecast summary:

- Heat index values around 100 degrees for areas generally along
and south of I-70 for this afternoon.

- Strong to severe storms forecast to move into the general area
during the afternoon into the evening hours today as a complex of
storms moves into the area from Nebraska. Wind would be the primary
hazard with hail being lesser of a concern.

- Hot and humid again by Tuesday of next week with heat lasting
through mid week. Heat index values could reach above 105 degrees
for much of the area.

Forecast thoughts:

Slight changes to the UA pattern over the past 24 hrs have taken
place. The stacked cyclone over the Hudson Bay region has
retrograded a bit further West. The anticyclone over the Desert
Southwest has flattened slightly has the western ridge has also
flattened. A Pacific Low remains off the western shore of Canada.
Northwest to quasi-zonal flow over the central Plains is part of the
broader cyclonic flow around the aforementioned Hudson Bay low.

Early this morning, a few low lying areas likely develop shallow fog
again similar to yesterday. This afternoon, hot conditions remain
across the area today ahead of a developing storm system that will
be poised to move into the area by mid to late afternoon today. Not
looking for heat advisory levels today but some could see around the
century mark for heat index values with moisture near the surface
not easily scoured out. The bigger potential concern for the
forecast area comes into this afternoon. As a weak subtle shortwave
works out of the Rockies into western and central Nebraska, storms
should intensify or develop if not already initiated. Plenty of
instability develops with diurnal heating in conjunction with an
expansive and quality moist reservoir in place throughout the
central Plains. As storms develop they could quickly become severe
and within an hour or two begin to congeal into a line of storms.
Forecast soundings paired with 00Z soundings throughout the Plains,
suggest that intense negative buoyancy will exist over a wide area
today. This will likely allow for intense downdrafts to result as
updrafts will also be maintained along the leading edge of a
resulting MCS that propagates into the forecast area by mid to late
afternoon. Thus, the primary hazards for today are the threat of
strong damaging winds. Could see some areas see winds in excess of
70 mph and possibly higher. Hail will be a threat if embedded
supercellular structures can be maintained. The tornado threat
appears to be very low today. This overall system should move
through the area by this evening. Any rain will be welcome but keep
updated with potentially rapidly changing conditions weather wise
through this afternoon into the early evening and have multiple ways
to receive warnings. Although there is some uncertainty in how
intense storms could be today and the exact track, it does appear to
be a favorable environment for a potentially intense wind threat
across the area today with storms if they area wide spread and come
in the form of a well developed line of storms.

After this system moves through the area, the weekend looks slightly
cooler with chances for precipitation mainly across northern areas
for part of the day Sunday. Heat returns into next week by Tuesday
time frame as the western ridge amplifies with rising H85 heights
into the area. Could see a few days with advisory level heat once
again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Main concern in the period is convection this afternoon. A cluster
currently north of MHK should move southeast and impact TOP/FOE
within the next hour or two. Thunderstorms in central KS should
form a broken line and move across the area this afternoon and
move out of northeast KS by early evening. Strong winds will be
the main concern as these storms move through. Otherwise VFR
conditions prevail with winds from the northeast to northwest this
evening into tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-150830-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
323 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to move into the area from the
northwest by this afternoon and early evening. Storms are expected to
be capable of producing winds of 70 mph or greater at times. A few
storms could also produce large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Potentially hazardous heat and humidity may return to the area by
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1146 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ009-141730-
Washington-
1146 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Washington
County through 1230 PM CDT...

At 1146 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Palmer, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Linn, Greenleaf, Barnes and Palmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3988 9681 3957 9681 3957 9690 3959 9731
      3981 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 270DEG 21KT 3971 9719

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Omitt