Drought in Iowa, July 1 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1046 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Key Messages:

 - Scattered shower/storm chances (20-40%) will persist into Sat
night - mostly holding across northeast IA/southwest WI.

 - Generally above normal temps into early next week, warmest
Monday/Tuesday. Cooling for the later half of next week.

 - A higher chance (50-60%) for widespread showers/storms late Tue
into Wed.

* WEEKEND INTO 4th HOLIDAY - RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY SOUTH, WARMING

Upper level trough currently churning in the lee of the southern
rockies, with ripples in the flow ejecting out of it. At the sfc,
the front that tracked across the area yesterday has lain up west-
east across northern IA into southern WI. Pool of moist, unstable
air hangs further south of there (per SPC RAP analysis). Morning
convection mostly across IA has shifted into IL for the afternoon,
although some spotty showers still lingering westward. Could see
some further development in the vicinity of the sfc boundary,
coupled with any bits of upper level energy. However, RAP holds most
of the MUCAPE south, not providing a rich environment for sustaining
any convection, let alone spark it. CAMS aren't enthusiastic either.
Think small pops are still warranted across parts of NE IA/SW WI.
tonight into early part of Sat.

Moving into Sat afternoon and night, the upper level trough starts
to press into the mid mississippi river valley with bits of
shortwave energy ejecting eastward out of the trough. The sfc
boundary could sag more southward, but with the ripples in the flow
working more northward, should see an increase in shower/storms
chances across northeast IA/southwest WI. The trough edges east
later Sunday, with shortwave ridging then building in. Rain chances
will be on the wane in the south and looking for a dry Sunday night
into Tuesday. Rain chances (widespread) return later Tue and Wed.
More on that in the next section.

Temperature-wise, seasonable warmth expected through the weekend
with shortwave ridging, southerly flow kicking temps up a bit moving
into Mon/Tue. Some uptick in dewpoints and humidity too, although
not an appreciable factor on heat indices at this time (don't waver
much from ambient air temp). Clouds and rain chances will keep it a
tad cooler to the south through the weekend.

* TUE/WED RAIN CHANCES...THEN RETURN TO COOLER, LESS HUMID CONDITIONS

The GFS and EC remain on track to slide an upper level trough from
western Canada, across the northern plains and then pushing west-
east through the upper mississippi river valley in the Tue-Wed
frame. Models continue to show some timing differences, which
could/would impact potential for strong/severe risk. SPC cluster
analysis has the preponderance of the GEFS in stronger, slightly
quicker scenarios. The EPS favors weaker and a tad later. Latest
operational runs show the same with the GFS tracking an associated
cold front across the local area Tue afternoon/evening while the EC
is trending toward overnight Tue/Wed morning. Part of the
differences could be overnight convection the GFS develops over the
northern plains Mon night, with residual MCV pushing across the
region later Tue. Not much from the EC in this stead. More of a meso
scale feature, and this far out, confidence not high enough to put
the "eggs" in that basket - yet. Issue here is the model blend will
spread out the rain chances between the 2 potential solutions,
although have trended with higher chances - which looks like the way
to go - but timing could be off. Expect refinement to the timing and
potential risks over the next few days. Bottom-line for 4th of July
celebrations - some threat for showers/storms that could impact
evening festivities.

Cooler and less humid air favored to drop in from Canada post the
mid week system with 850 mb temps slated to drop from around 18 C
Tue to 10 C for Thu. Highs would shake out in the 70s to lower 80s,
close to, perhaps even below the early July normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

A series of shortwave troughs will move east through Iowa. These
systems will provide a broken mid and high cloud deck through the
TAF period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
446 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-011400-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
446 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota, northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible south
of Interstate 90, mainly this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Low chances for non-severe storms will continue through the
weekend, mainly across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. It is
too early to determine the potential for severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.