As cool high pressure moved off to the east, southerly winds brought highs in the 60's and increased moisture to the region. Scattered showers and storms brought brief but heavy downpours that prompted a few instances of minor flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
As cool high pressure moved off to the east, southerly winds brought highs in the 60's and increased moisture to the region. Scattered showers and storms brought brief but heavy downpours that prompted a few instances of minor flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 18, 1:11 PM CST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 111 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 110 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Main focus of the short term is on the near-term severe weather/flood threat. Elevated thunder has been going most of the morning with some pea sized hail reports and quite a few 60ish dBZ cores on radar. Mid- level lapse rates look to be about 6.0 to 6.5 degC/km which is a little steeper than advertised Monday. Modest lift continues through the mid levels as the upper trough approaches from MO/KS. Lower layer winds have increased, particularly above a near- surface frontal inversion with winds at 850mb up to 35-40 kts. RAP/HRRR increases this to 40-60 kts through the next few hours as surface winds move a warm front north over the area. The front has currently moved into western Kentucky with both Hopkinsville and Murray reporting dewpoints in the 60s. Modified RAP/GOES derived soundings yield about 300 J/kg of MLCAPE with the airmass over west TN which is very modest but particularly strong low level shear - made stronger by the southeasterly low level backing of local winds due to the secondary surface low over Missouri - will continue to pose a risk for severe storms/tornadoes if any storms become surface based this evening. SEMO and SRN IL have also received quite a bit of rain this morning, and if new deep convection forms along the front will have to watch for flash flooding. Open warm sector storms are possible with the best chances of convection along and ahead of the leading front that will move into our western counties around 5 pm and clear the eastern counties by 2am or so. Overnight a secondary front with a colder airmass will sweep in. This will lead to a cool and breezy day tomorrow with gusts probably in the 20-30 mph range. Enough cold advection should occur for us to get down below freezing Thursday night. Moderate northwest winds persist through Friday with highs in the upper 30s north and mid 40s south. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 110 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 The weekend will start off dry as 500 mb height falls begin to occur ahead of a shortwave across the central Plains. Northern stream energy phases with the shortwave Saturday night as a weak sfc low moves across the Tennessee Valley. Pcpn chances occur from late Saturday night through the day Sunday. QPF amounts still look to be light between 0.1-0.3" with the highest amounts favored across the KY Pennyrile. There is still the potential for rain to mix with light snow or freezing rain with temps near freezing early Sunday morning across our far northern counties along the I-64 corridor. Given light QPF amounts, impacts would be minimal. Tranquil and dry conditions then return to start off the week on Monday as sfc high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. However, a more potent low pressure system will impact the FA Tuesday into Wednesday as a shortwave ejects across the Mississippi River Valley and becomes negatively tilted Tuesday night. While confidence is higher in greater QPF amounts with this system, there still remains quite a bit of spread between deterministic and ensemble guidance with where the sfc low will track. The NBM currently has rain progged for the FA, but a slight shift more southeast would increase the potential for snow. If the latest 12z ECMWF is correct, we certainly would be looking at a more white scenario! However, confidence in this remains low at this time given that we are still a week out. Did remove NBM mention of any freezing rain as forecast thermal profiles would support a rain to snow scenario if indeed this system does trend colder. Will be something to monitor as winter tries to return to end the forecast period! High temps will start off in the mid to upper 40s over the weekend and will gradually trend cooler towards the upper 30s to lower 40s by Wednesday. Low temps will start off in the low to mid 30s before also trending downward into the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Rain is moving northeastward through the Quad State at this time. A few thunderstorms are possible, mainly for southern terminals. A more organized line of storms is likely for the late afternoon/early evening moving west to east. Cigs lower to IFR late in the afternoon, then return to VFR near dawn. Easterly winds shift to southeasterly and increase with a warm frontal passage, then to the southwest following the storm line. Gusts to 25 kts are possible, with locally higher amounts possible with storms. After decreasing overnight, winds pick up again tomorrow with gusts to 25 kts during the morning. LLWS is a potential concern late this afternoon as surface winds are forecast to shift earlier than 2 kft winds. Vsby reductions are expected with moderate to heavy rain and storms, but cloud cover is likely to prevent dense fog development tonight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...JGG LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...ATL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 344 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-190945- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 344 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 /444 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance for thunderstorms and locally heavy rain this afternoon and evening. Localized flooding is possible. There is also a risk for severe thunderstorms with the main threats being damaging wind gusts, small hail and a very isolated threat of a tornado. The greatest risk is focused in southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather or flooding this afternoon and evening.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
943 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023
MOZ109-110-181630-
Butler MO-Stoddard MO-
943 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Butler
and southwestern Stoddard Counties through 1030 AM CST...
At 943 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McDougal, or 8 miles east of Corning, moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Qulin, Bernie, Dudley and Dexter.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3650 9047 3692 9005 3673 8981 3663 8995
3663 9015 3662 9016 3661 9016 3660 9018
3655 9018 3654 9021 3650 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 1543Z 222DEG 40KT 3640 9043
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DWThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was reported over a road in Mcleansboro. One to two inches of water was over the road near the intersection of Piopolis Road and County Road 600 E.
Minor road flooding was reported.
Water was over roads in low areas.
Minor street and yard flooding occurred.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1070973, 1070975, 1070977, 1070978.