A long period northwesterly swell and choppy wind-driven seas produced large breaking waves and rough surf conditions along the northern coast of Puerto Rico during mid-January.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A long period northwesterly swell and choppy wind-driven seas produced large breaking waves and rough surf conditions along the northern coast of Puerto Rico during mid-January.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 18, 1:48 PM AST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
148 PM AST Wed Jan 18 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM AST Wed Jan 18 2023
San Juan registered one of the driest soundings in likely several
months or more this morning in the 18/12Z run with a precipitable
water of 0.75 inches. Winds were generally light and variable
below 14 kft, and a considerable inversion topped the very thin
stratocumulus layer at 5 kft. This will preclude almost all
convection and in fact, relative humidities above the inversion
were less than 10 percent up to 43 kft representing a formidable
obstacle to showers. Only minor adjustments to the gridded
forecastthis morning.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Weather-wise, drier and stable conditions will prevail today.On
Thursday into the upcoming weekend, pockets of moisture embedded
in the trade winds will increase the potential for shower activity
across the local islands. Hazardous marine and coastal conditions
will prevail for the next several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...
A surface high pressure centered east of the Bahamas will maintain
winds out of the northeast today. At the mid levels, a ridge also
dominates, maintaining a strong trade wind cap inversion at 850 mb,
and a dry air mass above these levels. In fact, recent satellite
imagery from GOES-16 shows precipitable water values of only 0.82
inches, which is near 2 standard deviation below normal. Therefore,
mainly fair weather is expected, and the probability of precipitation
(PoPs) where adjusted a bit downward for today.
As the surface high migrates eastward, the winds will shift from the
east on Wednesday, and the remnants of the cold front that brought
unsettled weather last Sunday will retrograde into the islands. The
trade winds will then drag some showers over the Virgin Islands, and
also over eastern Puerto Rico. This activity is expected to be
limited, since the mid level ridge continues to hold. A similar
pattern is expected on Thursday, with additional patches of moisture
moving through, generating advective showers for the eastern half of
the area of responsibility, and the potential for convection over
the west in the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...
The forecast remains unchanged. The latest model guidance shows
a surface trough across the forecast area at least through the
weekend. Therefore, expect a slight increase in patches of
moisture. From Sunday onwards, winds will increase slightly,
meaning that the showers should move quickly over the region.
During the workweek, trade winds showers will promote the typical
shower activity across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The potential for afternoon convection across the interior and
western quadrant of Puerto Rico each afternoon is still
anticipated due to the advective showers. However, the
development of any rainfall activity will be limited, mainly due
to a mid-level high pressure that continues to promote dry air
aloft. Temperature-wise, expect nice and cool tropical winter
temperatures across the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions. SHRA activity should remain confined
to SE portion of FA ovr the waters SE of the USVI. Sct-bkn lyr
FL045-050 movg NW ovr TISX and toward PR. Max winds W 66-76kt btwn
FL380-460.
&&
.MARINE...Hazardous seas and life-threatening rip currents will
continue due to the combination of a northwesterly swell and wind
driven seas. Moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds will
continue across the regional waters. Seas will gradually diminish
through Friday. For more details we encourage you to visit the
CFWSJU and MWWSJU products.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
005-008.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for PRZ001-002-005-
008-010-012.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ010-013.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ011.
High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for PRZ012.
VI...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for VIZ001.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ002.
High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for VIZ001.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Thursday for AMZ710.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Thursday for AMZ712-715-741-
742.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST this evening for AMZ722.
&&
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/LONG TERM....WS
UPPER AIR/PUBLIC...RVTPerspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR 357 AM AST miercoles 18 de enero de 2023 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-190800- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central- Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas costeras cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe- 357 AM AST miercoles 18 de enero de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Viento...Brisa fuerte. Objetos no asegurados podrian ser arrastrados por el viento. .Condiciones maritimas...Oleaje igual o mayor a 7 pies a traves de las aguas del Atlantico y los pasajes. Condiciones maritimas peligrosas para las embarcaciones pequenas. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de resaca particularmente en la costa norte y oeste de Puerto Rico, al igual que para Culebra y Vieques. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes Se espera oleaje de hasta 6 pies hasta tarde en la semana. El riesgo de corrientes marinas estaran altas hasta el sabado. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Se exhorta la activacion de los observadores. Favor hacer llegar cualquier informacion de inundaciones, vientos, oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-190800- San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes- Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 357 AM AST miercoles 18 de enero de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para las Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Viento...Brisa fuerte. Objetos no asegurados podrian ser arrastrados por el viento. .Condiciones maritimas...Oleaje igual o mayor a 7 pies a traves de las aguas del Atlantico y los pasajes. Condiciones maritimas para las embarcaciones pequenas. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de resaca a lo largo de todas las islas. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...miercoles a lunes Se espera oleaje de hasta 6 pies hasta tarde en la semana. El riesgo de corrientes marinas estaran altas hasta el jueves, luego moderado temprano la semana proxima. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Se exhorta la activacion de los observadores. Favor hacer llegar cualquier informacion de inundaciones, vientos, oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A man drowned on Jobos Beach in Isabela around 3:30 pm after being swept away by rip currents. Another man who was injured in the incident was transported to a hospital.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Northwest | 2023-01-18 | 73 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1067014.