Minor flooding occurred along sections of the Ohio River. The flooding was due to a series of frontal passages that brought showers and thunderstorms on ground that was already very moist.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Minor flooding occurred along sections of the Ohio River. The flooding was due to a series of frontal passages that brought showers and thunderstorms on ground that was already very moist. The widespread heavy rain event on the 16th was the primary reason for this minor flooding event on the Ohio River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 5:14 AM CST, 7 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 514 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 514 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 244 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 Today will start off dry with tranquil conditions as mid to upper level heights begin to rapidly rise by this evening. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching warm front. The front will then lift through the lower Ohio Valley during the overnight hours, bringing the risk for some showers and elevated thunderstorms. The best chance of seeing pcpn is across portions of southern IL and southwest IN where NBM chance PoPs are progged. Meanwhile, far western KY and most of southeast MO is likely to remain dry as the 0z deterministic models have trended more north and drier compared to 24 hours ago. A lull is then likely Wednesday morning as pcpn moves north of the FA. As a 500 mb shortwave approaches, sfc low pressure will deepen across the central Plains. Pcpn will spread from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours across the entire FA as NBM PoPs ramp up to categorical. Instability remains marginal at best with MLCAPE below 500 J/kg and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. Compared to yesterday, QPF has trended lower with storm total amounts now progged between 0.10-0.40" across the FA. The greatest amounts are likely to be in southeast MO and southern IL as the best upper level divergence associated with a 250 mb jet max remains well NW of our region where more robust convection is favored. The synoptic wind potential still remains the biggest headline as wind gusts will likely reach near wind advisory criteria from Wednesday afternoon into the evening. This is when peak wind gusts are expected due to a LLJ and deep mixing in the boundary layer. Despite 40-60 kt winds between 925-850 mb, cloud cover will help to limit stronger gusts from reaching the sfc. Have blended the NBM with CONSAll to adjust winds as the new version of the NBM remains way too high. Still, this has peak wind gusts over 40 mph for portions of the FA. Winds will then remain breezy into Thursday with wind gusts over 30 mph as the pressure gradient will still be tight. The good news is a dry day is in store! Temps will certainly be quite mild through Thursday. While Tuesday will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, temps quickly rebound on Wednesday after the aformentioned warm front moves through with highs in the low to mid 70s. Given strong southerly flow and the potential to see some breaks of sun, blended the NBM with the 75th percentile. Although Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, Thursday will still be quite mild ahead of a cold front with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 244 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 A rather active pattern will continue through next weekend and into next week. Fortunately, the greatest impact at this time appears to be near Wind Advisory-level gusts on Monday. The Quad State will start out under fast zonal flow aloft Friday and Saturday and then a ridge will briefly build overhead Sunday. Another storm system will eventually move eastward out of the central Plains and into the Great Lakes by Monday evening. At the surface we will start out with cold and dry high pressure centered north of the region. Winds will briefly turn around from the south Saturday ahead of a clipper system, but high pressure will build back in from the north on Sunday. This high will not hang around very long either, as strong south winds develop early Monday ahead of the Plains system. There is fairly strong agreement amongst the 00Z guidance for an area of light rain to move quickly across the Quad State as a minor disturbance aloft passes by to the north of the region late Friday night into early Saturday. The NBM/WPC QPF and PoPs still lag the trend, but are trending in this direction. Saturday will be dry with the exception of southeast portions of the region early in the morning. The GFS is on its own developing a more substantial area of rainfall throughout the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. This appears to be in response to a stronger clipper system. The NBM/WPC QPF is all in on it, with substantial QPF advertised throughout the region from Saturday night through Monday evening. We would prefer to wait and see about the GFS solution for Saturday night and especially Sunday when most guidance indicates high pressure building in at the surface and aloft. Our current expectation is for the entire region to be dry Sunday. The lone possible exception is over western portions of southeast Missouri where warm advection ahead of the Plains system could produce a few showers late in the day. Some at least scattered warm advection showers will stream over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois Sunday night, and then a swath of rain will push eastward across the entire region Monday. This final swath will be moving along quickly and is not expected to produce more than a half an inch. The NBM/WPC storm total QPF from Friday night through Monday evening has a large area over 2.5" from southeast Missouri through southern Illinois with at least 1.5" over almost the entire area. For much of this period this QPF represents around the 90th percentile of the NBM and is likely way overdone. With little instability and transient synoptic features, there is little reason to expect as much as an inch anywhere across the region. The weekend is likely to be much better/drier than our current forecast indicates. The main impact from the Monday system is likely to be strong south winds. The typically overdone NBM winds were left alone for this period, and come in just below Wind Advisory levels. We will continue to monitor the Wind Advisory potential for Monday. As for temperatures, we will start out several degrees below normal Friday, climb to near normal Saturday, and then well above for Sunday and Monday. Surface high pressure will bring a cool down for next Tuesday, but most places will be at least up to normal levels. && .AVIATION... Issued at 514 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 VFR conditions will prevail through today as high cirrus clouds increase in coverage through the afternoon. Light winds will shift from NW-N in the morning to E-SE by the evening. MVFR cigs will build across all terminals late tonight as a warm front pushes north through the region. Included VCSH mention at terminals KOWB & KEVV where there is higher confidence in seeing pcpn. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible. Southerly winds between 11-13 kts with gusts around 20 kts is expected before the end of the TAF period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DRS AVIATION...DW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 253 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-221100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 253 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 /353 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few thunderstorms will be possible after midnight across the Evansville Tri State and the Interstate 64 corridor of southern Illinois. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Strong south winds may gust 35 to 45 mph throughout the region Wednesday. A few thunderstorms are possible throughout the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. West winds may gust 30 to 35 mph Thursday, and south winds may gust 30 to 35 mph next Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. DW/DRS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
There was minor flooding of low-lying woods and fields near the Ohio River.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1075701.