Lightning Strike in Hawaii, February 13 to 20, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1017 AM HST Mon Feb 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong high pressure system far northeast of the islands and a
trough approaching from the east will support locally strong
northeast trade winds over most islands through Tuesday. The trough
will pass just north of the islands Wednesday and Thursday, with
winds weakening before shifting to the southeast and south and
strengthening later in the week. Some locally heavy showers are
anticipated the next couple of days, with widespread heavy rain
possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite images show scattered to broken open-celled
showery low clouds moving over the islands from the E, embedded in a
locally breezy trade wind flow. Radar is peppered with relatively
small, but locally heavy rain cores, with these showers primarily
over windward areas, and in greatest concentration over windward Big
Island. Some of these soaking showers are occasionally moving over
leeward areas on the smaller islands while leeward Big Island is
currently cloud-free. Water vapor imagery and latest analyses shows
a complex low aloft centered just E of the islands, with this
feature destabilizing the island atmosphere, most notably over the E
end of the island chain. A few lightning strikes have been detected
in the stronger rain cores near the Big Island this morning, and
visible imagery shows the summits and upper slopes of Mauna Kea and
Mauna Loa are covered in snow. A surface trough has developed in
association with the low aloft, and lies along 150W, with heavy
showers and thunderstorms clustered near 20N.

Little significant change is expected in the short term, but a
dynamic weather pattern is expected over the next couple of days,
with a trend toward increasingly unsettled weather. Locally breezy
trade winds, supplied by a strong 1040 mb surface high centered to
the distant NE, will support a wet trade wind flow today, with the
potential for a few thunderstorms over windward Maui and Big Island.
Leeward Big Island will cloud up by afternoon, and the unstable
atmosphere will allow clouds to build vertically, with locally heavy
rain and thunderstorms possible into the late afternoon.

By tonight, the surface trough to the E will sharpen and move W,
potentially developing into a weak surface low as it then moves NW
and passes N of the islands Tuesday night through Thursday. The low
will continue moving W and gradually dissipate well W of the islands
this weekend. Concurrently, the low aloft E of the islands will
drift W before lingering W of the islands for several days. These
features will modulate island weather over the next several days,
bringing the potential for widespread heavy rain Thursday and Friday
as the islands will be in a moist and convergent low-level SE flow
when the low moves W of the islands.

As the trough moves W, winds will back to the N and NE over most
islands Tuesday and Tuesday night, strengthening over Kauai and
Oahu, potentially to the point that a Wind Advisory would be
required. On the Big Island, winds will become light and variable,
then strengthen somewhat as they shift to the SE and S by midweek.
On Wednesday, with the trough/low near the longitude of Kauai, most
islands will be in a breezy SE to S wind flow, with NE winds
persisting on Kauai. The SE to S winds may become locally strong as
well. Some briefly heavy showers and a few thunderstorms can be
expected within the NE trade wind flow, as the island atmosphere
remains at least marginally unstable, with a trend toward widespread
heavy rain anticipated later in the week. This will occur due to the
strongly convergent low-level flow that develops E of the
trough/low, and over the island chain, with deep moisture spreading
over the islands from the SE Thursday and Friday. Uncertainty
regarding the departure of the low/trough and the associated
convergence band over the islands makes for a low confidence outlook
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper low centered just northeast of the Big Island will
destabilize the atmosphere and bring a chance of heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms today and tonight, mainly focused across the eastern
half of the state but passing scattered showers likely in all areas.
Expect MVFR ceilings, reduced visibility and localized turbulence in
and around showers/thunderstorms. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect
for tempo mountain obscuration across north and east sections of
Maui and the Big Island.

Surface winds will also remain breezy over the next 24 hours. AIRMET
Tango remains in effect for low level moderate turbulence for
leeward sides of all islands.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong high pressure system far northeast of the state will
maintain strong to near gale trades through tonight. As a result, a
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all waters through
6 AM Tuesday. A trough of low pressure southeast of the state will
slowly track westward across the islands Tuesday through Thursday.
The winds will shift to northeasterlies and remain strong west of
the trough, with moderate to strong southeasterlies developing east
of the trough. Gale force northeasterlies are possible as early as
Wednesday over the offshore waters. Strong to near gale force trade
winds could return to portions of the coastal waters on Thursday.

The High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been extended through 6 AM Tuesday
for east facing shores due to large and rough trade wind swell. East
shore surf will remain above seasonal levels through late in the
week due to strong trades over and upstream of the islands. The HSA
may need to be extended for Kauai and Oahu, potentially through late
in the week, where the winds over and upstream will remain the
strongest. A pair of northwest swells will give north shore surf a
boost this week. The first swell will peak just below the advisory
threshold today, then decline tonight and Tuesday. A second
northwest swell will build on Wednesday, peak below advisory levels
Thursday, and decline Friday. South facing shores will experience
minimal surf this week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Olomana-Kahoolawe-
Maui Windward West-Kauai East-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Koolau
Windward-Molokai Windward-Molokai Southeast-Windward Haleakala-
Kipahulu-South Haleakala-Big Island Southeast-Big Island East-
Big Island North.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big
Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian
waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...Birchard
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Kodama

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
203 PM HST MON FEB 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     LIGHTNING        4 WSW POHAKULOA CAMP    19.74N 155.60W
02/12/2023                   HAWAII             HI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIGHTNING STRIKES SPARKED 2 BRUSH FIRES NEAR
            KEAMUKU MANEUVER AREA IN POHAKULOA TRAINING
            AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
236 PM HST MON FEB 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             2 S HONAUNAU            19.43N 155.88W
02/12/2023  E0.25 INCH       HAWAII             HI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIDEO OF SMALL HAIL ON LOCAL MEDIA BY
            PUBLIC.

&&

TWP