Low pressure moved south to southeast into Oregon and produced significant snow from the coast to the Cascades with snow levels around 500 feet at the Coast Range and 1500 feet east of the Coast Range to the Cascades.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Low pressure moved south to southeast into Oregon and produced significant snow from the coast to the Cascades with snow levels around 500 feet at the Coast Range and 1500 feet east of the Coast Range to the Cascades.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 9:17 AM PST, 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
917 AM PST Mon Feb 13 2023
.DISCUSSION...Satellite indicates the cold front is passing
through western and central Oregon this morning. Light showers
have been passing in parts of Douglas County with some light
sprinkles in the Rogue Valley. Today's forecast remains on track,
and no changes are needed for the morning update. The next push
of precipitation comes later this morning and into this afternoon
with snow levels lowering to around 2,000 feet. Snow levels will
continue to lower to valley floors this evening and overnight,
bottoming out around 500 feet. Confidence remains high for
accumulating snow on valley floors late tonight into early
tomorrow morning as more rounds of precipitation move into the
region. See previous discussions for more details. -AH
&&
.AVIATION...13/12Z TAFs...Widespread MVFR ceilings with higher
terrain obscured and areas of light rain/drizzle are impacting
many areas from the coast to the Cascades in Oregon this morning.
Local IFR is occurring in the Grants Pass/Illinois Valley areas.
Other than some high cirrus, VFR prevails across NorCal and over the
East Side. Gusty west-northwest winds will develop at all TAF sites
later this morning and through this afternoon with many locations
having gusts in excess of 25kt. Slightly lower gusts are expected
at Roseburg, but gusts of 40-45 kt are possible at Klamath Falls
around or after 19z. An airport weather warning is out for Klamath
Falls due to expected wind gusts >=35 kt.
An front with modified arctic air will press southward through the
area overnight into Tuesday morning and it will turn much colder.
Snow levels will drop to valley floors west of the Cascades, even as
low as just a few hundred feet above sea level near the coast. Snow
will impact both Roseburg and Medford by Tuesday morning, where an
inch or more could accumulate on the runways. An airport weather
warning is out for Medford. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PST Monday, February 13, 2023...Gusty north
to northwest winds are expected today into Tuesday. At a minimum,
conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Moderate northwest
swell building in today will become very high and very steep tonight
into Tuesday, so we've upgraded the hazardous seas watch to a
warning. In addition, an unstable air mass will move during this
period and could lead to some stronger showers with lightning and
brief, but strong wind gusts in excess of 35 kt. Winds and seas
gradually subside Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a brief period
of calmer conditions Wednesday night. However, southerly winds will
increase in advance of the next front with another period of
elevated seas on Thursday. -Spilde
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 443 AM PST Mon Feb 13 2023/
SHORT TERM...The forecast remains on track with models continuing
to show a front and upper trough moving into the region today
bringing much lowered snow levels, areas of moderate rain and
snow and gusty winds. While the trough remains in place, a second,
more robust, disturbance tracks down from the north tonight and
Tuesday morning bringing increased precipitation to the area and
pushing snow levels down to around 500 feet (but potentially down
to the beaches at times). This will result in snow impacts from
just inland of the coast to the Southern Oregon Cascades as well
as across western Siskiyou County and northern Klamath County.
Satellite and radar imagery early this morning show the cold
front located over far northwest Oregon and Washington. As the
upper trough drops southward, this front will move into the area
late this morning and this afternoon and bring a mix of rain and
snow, mainly from the Southern Oregon Cascades west. Models
continue to show light to moderate precipitation developing over
southwest Oregon and snow levels quickly dropping to between
2000-2500 feet late this morning and this afternoon. With a cold
upper trough over the area and moist, onshore flow, expect showers
across the area (most numerous from the Southern Oregon Cascades
west) this evening with snow levels lowering to between 1500 to
2000 feet. Expect snow to start to accumulate across mountains
above 2000 feet from the Cascades west then afternoon then down to
lower passes by early this evening.
The upper trough will remain over the region and a second front
will move into the area tonight and Tuesday morning. There is high
confidence that this second front will push snow levels down to
lower valley floors. Snow levels may locally lower down to the
coast at times in heavier showers, tonight and Tuesday morning.
We're currently expecting snow levels down to 400 feet right when
this second front moves through along with a round of moderate to
heavy precipitation.
Generally, we're expecting 1 to 4 inches to accumulate on lower
valley floors west of the Cascades, with most of that accumulation
expected late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Greater impacts
with moderate to heavy snow are expected for elevations at and
above 1500 feet from the Southern Oregon Cascades west. Snow is
likely to begin falling at lower passes along I-5 (near Sexton and
Canyon Mountain summits) late this afternoon into early this
evening, but there is a chance for light snow to develop early
this afternoon. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are
expected across the lower passes late today into Tuesday morning.
Then, in the S. OR Cascades and foothills in eastern Douglas,
expect higher snowfall amounts of around 6 to 12 inches.
Additionally, gusty winds will result in blowing snow and lowered
visibilities at times, especially over exposed higher mountain
locations. A winter storm warming remains in effect for areas
from the Southern Oregon Cascades west above 1500 feet. Winter
weather advisories are in effect for valleys west of the S. OR
Cascades and in western Siskiyou County above 500 feet elevation.
East of the S. OR Cascades and across central/eastern Siskiyou and
Modoc Counties, expect mainly light snow showers. The exception
is for the Highway 97 area in northern Klamath County, from
Chiloquin northward, where moderate snow is expected late this
afternoon and this evening and again early Tuesday morning. A
winter weather advisory remain in effect for this area. For
details on the winter storm warning and winter weather advisories,
please see the WSWMFR.
At the coast, models support snow levels around 500 to 1000 feet
tonight and Tuesday morning. However, there is a 10-20% chance
for light snow or a rain/snow mix at times tonight and Tuesday
morning, especially in heavier convective-type showers.
Additionally, there is a slight chance (15-20%) of thunderstorms
at the coast beginning this afternoon for areas north of Cape
Blanco then for all the coast late tonight and Tuesday morning.
The slight chance for thunderstorms will also extend inland into
northwest Douglas County this afternoon/evening. Any heavier
convective showers or thunderstorms may bring small hail/graupel.
Precipitation will taper off Tuesday afternoon, but wintry
impacts may continue. With clearing skies, temperatures will
plummet and it will be very cold Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Any lingering moisture on roadways will likely freeze,
leading to the concern for black ice and slippery conditions.
Additionally, there is a high chance (80 percent) for coastal
areas to see freezing or below temperatures Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning.
In addition to low elevation snow, gusty winds are expected with
these fronts. Winds will increase across the area today, with
moderate gusty winds expected to develop this afternoon east of
the Cascades in the Klamath Basin as well as across the mountains
and higher terrain in eastern Klamath, Lake and Modoc Counties.
Ensemble forecasts support gusts of around 40 mph and guidance
shows gusts of 40 to 50 mph for these areas. These winds are
expected to peak this afternoon. Then gusty winds of 35 to 40 mph
will persist into tonight. Have issued a wind advisory (NPWMFR)
that is in effect for this afternoon and early this evening for
the Klamath Basin and higher terrain/mountains in Klamath, Lake
and Modoc Counties.
BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM Monday, February 13, 2023...
Moderate west-northwest swell will build over the waters today, then
become high to very high tonight into Tuesday. Surf heights of 22 to
25 feet are expected during this time period, so a high surf
advisory remains in effect. -Spilde
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 PM PST Sun Feb 12 2023/
LONG TERM...Wed Feb 15 to Sun Feb 19...We start the day Wednesday
with some brisk low temperatures with the cold air mass brought by
the front still in place. Clearing skies and light winds will add to
this by providing good radiational cooling conditions area wide.
East of the Cascades expecting minimum temperatures generally in the
mid-to-high single digits, with slightly lower temperatures in
valleys. Overnight lows west of the Cascades will be a good deal
below normal for this time of year, with near to just below freezing
temperatures at the coast and high teens to low twenties inland,
with the valleys on the colder end of that range.
An upper level ridge will continue to slide onshore through
Wednesday, leading to dry and mild weather, if cooler than average.
The ridge will continue east Wednesday night as a trough replaces it
Thursday morning. Models are in good agreement that the flow will
split as it approaches the shore, with a closed low digging south
into California and a shortwave trough lifting north. The major
global models have differences regarding when this split happens and
the track of the low as it moves south, but there is general
agreement that any precipitation from this system will be light and
generally localized to the western part of the region. Most of the
region would just be getting increased clouds, which means that
morning lows will be a bit warmer than previous nights, though still
below normal. Winds aren't expected to be an issue with this kind of
pattern.
Upper ridging will again start to move in following this, but the
ridge axis will stall offshore. The majority of the weekend we'll
likely have dry and mild weather. Models are showing a weak
shortwave riding over the ridge and bringing another chance for
light precipitation and breezy winds around Sunday afternoon. -CSP
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM PST this evening for
ORZ029>031.
High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST Tuesday
for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM PST
Tuesday above 500 feet for ORZ021-022.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Tuesday
above 1500 feet for ORZ023-024-026.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM PST
Tuesday above 500 feet for ORZ023-024-026.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ025-027-028.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Tuesday for ORZ029-030.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST
Tuesday for CAZ080-081.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM PST this evening for
CAZ084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this
afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST
Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
National gridded snowfall analysis indicated 8 to 18 inches of snow.
National gridded snowfall analysis indicated 6 to 12 inches of snow at elevations above 1500 feet.
National gridded snowfall analysis indicated 3 to 8 inches of snow at elevations above 500 feet.
National gridded snowfall analysis indicated 6 to 12 inches of snow at elevations above 500 feet.
National gridded snowfall analysis indicated 3 to 8 inches of snow at elevations above 1500 feet.
National gridded snowfall analysis indicated 2 to 6 inches of snow at elevations above 1500 feet but below 2500 feet. Also, 6 to 12 inches of snow at elevations above 2500 feet.
National gridded snowfall analysis indicated 2 to 6 inches of snow at elevations above 1500 feet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1084053, 1084050, 1084045, 1084046, 1084047, 1084049, 1084052.