Drought in Georgia, November 14 to 28, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
841 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

The main changes to tonight's forecast were adjusting rain
chances/wx grids to account for a few station observations
reporting light rain and/or drizzle where light radar returns are
apparent. These edits were modest given that the much of the
precipitation is likely not reaching the surface as point RAP
soundings depict a dry low-level layer beneath a saturated zone.
Otherwise, everything else looks on track. Overcast skies will
persist overnight thanks to continued isentropic lift.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

Surface high pressure currently situated over Iowa will
gradually slide over the Ohio Valley tomorrow, approaching the East
Coast by the evening hours. This will result in winds clocking out
of the NE through the near term. In addition, a Gulf low will
continue trekking east over the open water just south of our area.
This will tighten the pressure gradient resulting to gusty winds up
to 20kts inland. Additionally, Deep moisture will be transported
over the area raising PWATs to 1.6 and perhaps as high as 1.8". With
NE flow and the warm front staying well off the coast, severe
weather will not be a threat with this event. Steady rain showers
should begin Tuesday evening with more rain in the forecast for
Wednesday, discussed in the Short/Long term forecast discussion.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler with daytime highs in the low
to upper 60s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 324 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

An H5 low and associated surface low will trudge along the northern
Gulf Coast. Forecast models continue to differ on the location of
these features, which causes a wide range of potential rainfall
totals across our area. Confidence is high that the area will see
beneficial rainfall for the first time in weeks. Confidence is also
fairly high that areas in the Florida Panhandle and southeastern
Alabama will see higher totals than those in the southeastern
Florida Big Bend and the I-75 corridor. However, just how much rain
any of those areas get is a bit more uncertain due to the forecast
uncertainty on how far east the surface low can make it. That said,
ensemble guidance supports widespread 1" to 3" for much of the
drought stricken Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama and
generally less than 2" as you head towards the I-75 corridor. It is
worth noting that models are hinting at a band of heavier rain being
possible somewhere across the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama
Wednesday into Wednesday night due to the position of the lows at
850mb and 700mb. As a result, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for excessive
rainfall Wednesday across the tri-state area.

Fortunately, the severe weather threat with this system is looking
unlikely due to the lack of instability and the warm front expected
to remain in the Gulf of Mexico. That said, a few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast as they'll be a little
closer to the warm front.

Other than the threat for locally heavy rain, there may be the need
for a Wind Advisory along the immediate coast in Franklin, Gulf, and
perhaps Bay Counties Tuesday night and potentially again Wednesday
night. This is due to a developing 925mb 40 to 45 knot jet over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which may mix down to the surface over
the Gulf waters and into the coastal communities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

A few showers remain in the forecast Thursday as the H5 low and
surface low continue to weaken. Drier weather returns Thursday night
and is expected to linger through the weekend. A cold front is
forecast to race through during the day Saturday. But there won't be
much, if any, moisture left over, so it'll likely be a dry frontal
passage. Afternoon temperatures won't be impacted too much as
they'll generally stay in the middle to upper 70s through the
weekend. Overnight lows, however, are forecast to drop from the
upper 50s to near 60 ahead of the front to the middle to upper 40s
Saturday night behind the front as drier air filters in across the
Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

The latest trends favor VFR continuing overnight at all terminals
despite widespread cloud cover and pockets of light rain. Light
NE winds below 10 kts increase to easterly about 12 kts late tmrw
morning with gusts around 20 kts. Highest confidence in rain and
low cigs affecting ECP by then where MVFR is fcst at ~14Z. The
latter holds at DHN/TLH until closer to 20Z where RA/-RA is fcst.
Ceilings look to hold at VFR for ABY/VLD thru this cycle while
lower rain chances prompt only VCSH attm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 835 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

Marine conditions to deteriorate tonight and tomorrow ahead of a
Gulf Low approaching from the west. The increasing pressure
gradient will make for dangerous boating in the form of strong
easterly winds at or near gale strength with frequent gusts up to
35 knots or more. The Gale Watch from waters along and west of
Ochlockonee River was upgraded to a Warning with a now earlier
onset time for the western legs at noon CST. Advisory levels look
to hold along the easternmost nearshore zones. Elevated winds and
seas are expected through mid-week before relaxing by late
Thursday or early Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

Low mixing heights will result in borderline low dispersions
areawide tomorrow and Wednesday as a Gulf low treks toward the area
despite elevated transport winds. Additionally, a wetting rain is
expected across the majority of the CWA tomorrow through Wednesday.
Thus, fire weather concerns remain low at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

Freshwater... Wet weather will finally return on Tuesday and
continue through Thursday, with the heaviest rain expected Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Multi-day rainfall totals are forecast to be 1
to 4 inches, with the higher amounts along the Panhandle coast.
Isolated multi-day totals of up to 7 inches are possible someplace
over the Florida Panhandle.

This much rain should bring rises on area rivers during the second
half of this week. However, rivers are currently running extremely
low, so there is lots of capacity to accept water while remaining
under bankfull. Hydrologic ensembles currently show only a low
chance (10 percent or less) of even seeing one or two rivers hit
action stage, and none show riverine flooding at this time.

So the main concern will be limited to short-lived localized runoff
issues. Flash flood guidance is high right now, so it would take a
locality getting a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain to
bring about those localized runoff issues. This is possible given
the potential in this weather pattern for embedded convection to
backbuild, or the possibility of a band of rain pivoting around a
stationary point.

Saltwater... There is a low chance of minor coastal flooding Tuesday
night and Wednesday night, mainly from Saint Marks westward. Near-
gale easterlies are currently forecast across the northeastern Gulf
Tuesday night, though there is the possibility of southeast winds
depending on the future track and structure of a Gulf low pressure
system. GFS-based statistical guidance for Saint Marks,
Apalachicola, and Panama City Beach bring water within a few inches
of minor coastal flood criteria during the high tide cycle on
Tuesday night and Wednesday night. PETSS 10-percent exceedance
guidance shows the area around Alligator Point and the mouth of the
Ochlockonee River being most vulnerable to experiencing minor
coastal flooding. If winds take on a more southerly component than
forecast, then additional coastline extending west into the
Panhandle could be at risk of minor coastal flooding. This is still

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   58  65  57  68 /  30  40  60  60
Panama City   59  66  56  69 /  40  70  70  80
Dothan        54  60  51  63 /  50  60  70  80
Albany        53  65  52  63 /  20  20  50  70
Valdosta      56  66  56  68 /  20  20  40  60
Cross City    61  72  62  75 /  10  20  40  50
Apalachicola  61  69  61  70 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for GMZ730-765.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-
     772.

     Gale Warning from noon Tuesday to midnight CST Wednesday night
     for GMZ750-752-770-772.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for GMZ755-775.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for GMZ755-
     775.

&&

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Reese/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Haner