A front associated with a strong Bering Sea low moved up into Southcentral Alaska pushed a surge of moisture and southerly flow aloft into the Susitna Valley, causing multiple days of moderate snowfall. The highest amounts recorded during the event up to 18 inches were focused along the Parks Highway near the Alaska Range.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A front associated with a strong Bering Sea low moved up into Southcentral Alaska pushed a surge of moisture and southerly flow aloft into the Susitna Valley, causing multiple days of moderate snowfall. The highest amounts recorded during the event up to 18 inches were focused along the Parks Highway near the Alaska Range.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 14, 5:39 AM AKST, 10 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 539 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2023 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Generally quiet weather is expected for much of southcentral Alaska on Tuesday. Satellite imagery shows the low that brought yesterday's snow has now pushed into SE Alaska and Yukon. Meanwhile, the next system to bring rain/snow into the area is now moving across the Bering Sea near the western Aleutians. The otherwise quiet weather in between has resulted in nearly clear skies, which in turn has allowed freezing fog and low stratus to develop and expand through the Susitna Valley and northern Cook Inlet, including Anchorage. With limited radiational heating and mixing this time of year, along with little horizontal air movement, fog may be quite slow to erode through the day. By late afternoon today, the warm front extending out from the Bering low will bring rain (high elevation snow) and increased wind to Kodiak Island and adjacent islands. This front will eventually work its way northeastward through the Kenai Peninsula and into the greater Anchorage area during the overnight hours. Snow is expected at onset for most locations with lingering cold air in place. Intensifying low- to mid-level SE flow will create a bit of a precipitation / downslope hole for Anchorage and portions of the western Kenai on Thursday, as well as slightly warmer temperatures. The biggest forecast challenge will be in the vicinity of Prince William Sound, such as Whittier, where lingering cold air will be slow to scour out, but onshore flow and relatively warm sea surface temperatures may promote a low-level temperature profile more suitable for rain rather than snow. Initial thoughts for Whittier and the coastline is that snow is expected at onset, but a changeover to rain is likely with continued onshore flow. Should a conversion not occur, one to two feet isn't out of the question for Whittier, where nearly 2 inches of liquid is expected by Friday morning. High-resolution model guidance is indicating rather strong Turnagain Arm and Hillside + South Anchorage winds for Wednesday, with gusts exceeding 40mph possible. This will have to be monitored closely as trees and other structures already have a high snow load on them. High wind may cause some snow to blow off in some cases, but may bring higher stress to some structures or vegetation. By Wednesday evening, the downsloping will diminish across the Anchorage Bowl, allowing precipitation to fill back in as shortwave troughs lift through the area within the deeper trough as it swings through Mainland Alaska. Precipitation-type remains tricky from late Wednesday through the first half of Thursday as low-level air hovers in the lower 30s. All in all, precipitation during this timeframe looks limited. Even if all snow were to occur, most areas wouldn't receive *too* much more snow. Colder air begins to filter into the area late Thursday into Friday, allowing any rain or mixed precip to change back over to snow. Additional snow accumulation up to a couple inches is possible from Anchorage through the Mat- Su Valley By Friday morning. -Brown && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday Night)... A strong, maturing low is making a final approach to the southwest corner of the Bering Sea this morning, with a recent scatterometer pass detecting a swath of sustained storm force winds south of the center, or a ways southwest of Shemya out in the North Pacific. This low is expected to move steadily into the Bering Sea during the next 36 hours or so, eventually making landfall near the Kuskokwim Delta as it weakens to gale force on Wednesday evening. The low's occluding front and a supporting southwesterly jet streak currently visible on satellite over the Bering Sea and Aleutians will meanwhile make rapid progress northeast, reaching the Southwest coastline by tonight, then moving quickly inland as it begins to shear apart over the higher terrain of the Alaska Range and Kuskokwim Mountains. This system will bring with it a variety of hazardous conditions, ranging from strong winds and high seas moving across the southern Bering Sea and along the Aleutian Chain, to possible high surf and coastal erosion along the Southwest coastline. The main impacts the Aleutians will come first, with the core of storm force winds expected to move near and south of the low as it heads east- northeast, progressing from the western Aleutians this morning to the eastern Aleutians by midday Wednesday. Gusts to Hurricane force will be possible as this core of strong winds shifts east, namely across the central Aleutians where a High Wind Watch for gusts up to 80 mph remains in effect starting later this evening. The stronger winds will weaken somewhat as they shift into the eastern Aleutians and the low's central pressure begins to rise, but areas between Nikolski and Dutch harbor should still be on alert for gusts between 60 and 70 mph as the strongest winds move through on Wednesday afternoon. Attention then shifts to Southwest, where concerns are increasing for the possibility of a prolonged period of strong, onshore winds behind the frontal passage starting later tonight. Prior to this, expect a band of moderate snow to reach the coast along and ahead of the front later this afternoon, then move quickly inland overnight tonight as the front continues northeast. Strong warm air advection and deep, southwesterly flow behind the front should very quickly push temperatures above freezing and change snow over to rain, limiting snow accumulation to a few inches at most for the majority of Southwest through Wednesday. More notably, the overall trend for the front's parent low has been for a slower and more northerly track. This will put much of Southwest under a more prolonged period of gusty, onshore winds than previously anticipated, and the potential for high surf and coastal erosion from tonight through Wednesday night has increased as a result. Looking briefly at the remainder of the forecast period, the low should finally move inland as winds across Southwest and the eastern Bering Sea turn northwesterly and begin to subside between Wednesday and Thursday. Much colder air will also begin to shift back into place as northwesterly flow drags Arctic air into place behind the low and upper trough moving over Southwest, turning rain showers back over to snow showers by early Thursday as temperatures drop from above average to below average by Thursday night. AF/SS && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... The long term forecast period begins on Friday with a cooling trend anticipated. Light to moderate snow should be ongoing across the Copper River Basin and portions of Prince William Sound, east, as an upper low shifts into Southeast Alaska into Saturday night. The bigger story is an expected trough drifting into interior Alaska. Which will pull a broad swath of colder temperatures in from the north. At the same time a drier air mass will help to clear out most precipitation for both Southwest and Southcentral through the weekend. The exception will exist over the Bering where isolated to scattered snow showers are forecast with the trough's passage. A Kamchatka low then brings a strong front into the Bering Sunday into Monday with potential high winds as the front moves through the Western and Central Aleutians. The front will progress into the eastern Bering by Monday with a rain/snow mix and enhanced southerly winds along the front, from the Eastern Aleutians up into the Chukchi Sea. BL && .AVIATION... PANC...Low stratus and/or fog with IFR conditions is likely through this morning, but low confidence as to whether it will move over the terminal. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through this afternoon. The next chance for snow with lower clouds and visibility will occur late tonight around midnight, but as southeast winds pick up through Turnagain Arm Wednesday morning, snowfall chances will decrease over the terminal. Expect winds to remain light and variable through the TAF forecast period. &&
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK 152 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2023 AKZ102-112-152100- Anchorage-Matanuska Valley- Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna, Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon 152 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2023 ...POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TREE BRANCHES WITH GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY... Snow laden trees and power lines from recent storms combined with winds expected to gust to 25 mph Wednesday morning could cause tree limbs to break and bring down trees already leaning from the heavy snow load. Power outages are also possible. Please exercise caution in areas where snow laden trees and limbs could fall, especially as winds increase Wednesday morning.
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter in Amber Lake reported 12.1 inches in 24 hours at 7:20 PM AKST 11/15. Snow continued well into the 15th and early 16th, with a storm total as high as 18 inches reported by the Alaska Department of Transportation along portions of the Parks Highway near Broad Pass on the morning of the 16th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1142420.