Drought in Florida, November 1 to 30, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
937 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Decreased the winds a couple of mph as 18Z guidance not quite as
high as forecast to this point which is supported by upstream
observations. Going temperature forecast appears on track with
latest surface observations and latest guidance which places lows
in the low to mid 30s west of Albany southwest towards
Enterprise. 18Z guidance is just a tad above freezing in isolated
outlying areas through the aforementioned area. No changes to the
gale warning needed for the Gulf waters as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

A cold front will continue to march through the region bringing with
clouds, breezy northerly winds, and cold air. The cold front is
currently on the western periphery of the service area which can
be observed via the clouds and temperatures. Currently temperatures
span the mid to upper 50s in SE AL and mid to upper 60s near Walton
Co FL at this time, whereas temperatures span the 70s and low 80s
ans you move east and south. Tonight, the temperature forecast will
be a bit tricky as it is reliant on winds, cold air advection, and
clearing skies. For GA counties west of the Flint River and our SE
AL counties, low temps should generally be in the mid to upper 30s
but it's possible we could get some isolated areas in the low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

We are still on track to experience the coldest period so far this
season Wednesday night through Thursday morning when temperatures
are forecast to plummet into the 30s. Locations in SE AL and
adjacent parts of SW GA stand the best chance of seeing their first
light freeze since late March, especially around the Dothan/Albany
area! The latest low-temperature forecast trended slightly cooler
than the previous package, so the existing Freeze Watch was extended
a bit southward and stops along a Geneva-Miller-Colquitt County
line. Further expansions and/or upgrades to a Freeze Warning are
possible in subsequent forecasts. The main wildcard is how light
winds become, which will be contingent on the position of strong
surface high pressure translating eastward from the northern Gulf
States. Either way, feels-like temperatures (wind chills) are likely
to be near or below freezing. Thursday daytime highs struggle to
exceed 70 degrees despite mostly sunny skies with one more night of
chilly weather (albeit above freezing) to follow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Airmass moderation gets underway this weekend with rebounding
temperatures closer to seasonal values. Surface high pressure
scooting off the Carolinas brings about northeasterly winds, while a
shortwave trough marches across the Gulf. The latter may induce weak
cyclogenesis off the NE FL coast around Sunday that aims to sharpen
easterly winds across the region and bring about low-end rain
chances on Monday. Zonal flow or weak ridging then temporarily
develops early next week before a relatively stronger northern
stream shortwave digs down the TN Valley. This feature likely forces
another frontal system that may be our next rainmaker right at the
end or just beyond the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

VFR conditions will prevail across each site this
evening with gusty winds haunting our sites this evening. Most
terminals have begun to show sporadic gusts up to 20kts, so opted to
keep 20kt prevailing gusts across all sites through 03-06z where all
sites (excluding KVLD) will see an increase to around 25-30kt gusts.
Winds should begin to die down following the 21z timeframe tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Conditions deteriorate this evening when northerly post-frontal
gales overspread the waters from west to east. A Gale Warning
remains in effect tonight until mid-tomorrow morning. An extended
period of advisory level northeast winds and seas follow until at
least Wednesday night, but may linger into Thursday. Cautionary
boating then arrives heading into the weekend before calming below
headline criteria by Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

A cold front will work its way through the tri-state region today
and tonight. With it comes increasing northerly winds, substantially
drier air, and decreasing temperatures. Expect RH values to
gradually drop this afternoon and evening, with the driest air
setting in for tomorrow, Wednesday. MinRH values are expected to be
critical and range from 20 to 25 percent from and west of Turner
County, GA  down to Wakulla County, FL. The question will be if RH
values will go lower, which could put some of these areas in the
upper teens. East of that county line, minRH values should be closer
to 25 to 30 percent. Unfortunately, winds look to be quite breezy
putting us at or near Red Flag Warning conditions. The Fire Weather
Watch accounts for the areas that have the greatest chance of seeing
critical fire weather conditions. Confidence is higher for the AL
counties and GA counties east of the Flint River to meet Red Flag
conditions. Thursday, conditions will remain critically dry in AL
and GA, but winds  will not meet warning criteria. We should start
to see an improvement of minRHs by the end of the week or into the
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

No significant rainfall is forecast over the next 7 days. The best
potential appears to be late next Monday into Tuesday evening QPF
amounts range from 0.10-0.50 inches - mainly over the eastern two-
thirds of the service area. Local rivers continue to run low thanks
to prolonged dry/drought conditions. There are no flooding concerns
for the foreseeable future.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   43  60  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   42  60  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        37  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        39  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  59  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    49  65  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  45  61  42  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for FLZ007>018-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ114.

GA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>159.

     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for GAZ120>131-142>146.

AL...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for ALZ065>069.

     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday to 11
     AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-
     772-775.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...IG3