Drought in Florida, January 1 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1046 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022

...New NEAR TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1029 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022

The main concern through New Years morning will be dense fog. We
are currently experiencing a very muggy air mass for this time of
year, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s. In the winter,
this level of mugginess strongly favors nighttime fog formation.
Indeed, visibility is already dropping, with a number of SE AL, NW
FL, and Chattahoochee Valley sites already down to 1/4SM. The
Dense Fog Advisory is in good shape. Based on reported fog at
Panama City Beach and latest trends in CAMS guidance, have also
expanded the Marine Dense Fog Advisory west along the nearshore
waters of Bay and Walton Counties.

A surface high pressure center will pass quickly east across the
service area on Sunday. At first, fog will hang in stubbornly in
the morning given the stable conditions, light winds, and low sun
angle. By afternoon, winds will become light northeast and
easterly. More areas will see dewpoints drop creep down into the
50s as the southwest flow off the warm Gulf Loop Current waters
lets up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022

Upper level ridge is forecast to build over the region through the
early part of the upcoming week. This ridge will keep things
fairly quiet across the area aside from the potential for fog in
the overnight hours. At the surface, an area of high pressure will
translate east Sunday night into Tuesday which will bring steadily
increasing southerly flow to the region by Tuesday. Main concerns
will again be the potential for fog across the region, with some
areas potentially seeing dense fog early Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022

Much of the inclement and rainy weather we're expecting will be
through the middle of the week as the upper level flow becomes
amplified. A broad trough will be in place across the central US
through much of the upcoming week and as several disturbances pass
through the trough, expect the upper level ridge to break down by
Wednesday and Thursday with widespread showers and storms
affecting the region. As this system slides east towards the tri-
state region Wednesday, the greatest upper level support for
severe weather will quickly move northeast of the area but with
modest deep-layer shear and ample moisture return, a non-zero
threat for severe weather is likely to remain into Wednesday and
Thursday if enough instability can develop. Additionally, we'll
need to watch the potential for heavy rain as ample moisture will
be in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022

Refined the previous TAFs based on the latest guidance. Main
challenge is the timing of fog onset and dissipation. Flight conds
hold at VFR the next few hrs, before deteriorating late tonight
with TLH/ECP/VLD likely being the 1st sites to tank as early as
3Z. By 6-7Z, most, if not all terminals drop to LIFR w/periods of
VLIFR overnight into early tmrw morning and likely several-hr
durations of vsbys 1/4 SM or less. Improvements to VFR are fcst
between 16-17Z w/west winds at or below 5 kts in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1029 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022

Muggy air over chilled nearshore waters will support widespread
sea fog through at least Sunday morning. High pressure will move
east across the waters on Sunday morning, supporting only light
and gentle breezes. Once high pressure moves east, southeast winds
will develop and freshen through Tuesday. Additionally, chances
for fog will likely remain high through the period, especially
over the cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022

Rain chances drop to nil areawide by tomorrow morning (New Years
Day) and look to stay that way until early Tuesday. Lingering low-
level moisture will keep min RH values healthily above critical
values, but make it favorable for fog (likely dense) and low cloud
development beginning tonight through mid-morning. Portions of
the Forgotten and Nature Coasts could see fog persist into the
afternoon off Apalachee Bay. The other concern is low dispersions,
which are forecast to be in place all day Sunday. Heading towards
mid-week, we are eyeing increased potential for waves of rainfall
(heavy at times), which should preclude any fire weather threats.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022
Highest rainfall amounts, generally around 1 to 2 inches, fell
west of the Apalachicola River overnight. These amounts were not
enough to cause widespread flooding or any significant rises on
area river, but was welcome rain. Drier conditions on tap after
today for most of the area until the middle part of next week
where another round of high rain chances and 2 to 3 inches of rain
is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  59  75  55 /  70   0   0   0
Panama City   72  59  72  59 /  60   0   0   0
Dothan        73  56  72  53 /  50  10   0   0
Albany        73  57  72  51 /  70   0   0   0
Valdosta      74  59  74  52 /  60   0   0   0
Cross City    71  58  75  57 /  60  10  10   0
Apalachicola  72  60  71  60 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-134.

     High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for FLZ115-118-127-128.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for ALZ065>069.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST /11 AM CST/ Sunday for GMZ730-
     750-752-755-765-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs