A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 20 miles northwest of Pagosa Springs in the San Juan National Forest.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 20 miles northwest of Pagosa Springs in the San Juan National Forest.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 10:33 AM MST, 2 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1133 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 A few waves passing to our north and the wobbling high pressure to our south will cause drier air to advect into the region today. Overall this will limit the amount of instability and ultimately cause a decrease in convection this afternoon. The Divide will have the better chances for scattered showers and storms. More isolated convection is possible in the Tavaputs, Roan Cliffs, Flat Tops, Grand Mesa and Unitas. Wetting rains will be confined to the higher elevations with little to no rain in the valleys. Gusty outflow winds will be the main concern especially with the many ongoing wildfires. There is little to no change in the midlevel temperatures that have been persistent for several days. This will again promote large dewpoint spreads and highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Like yesterday dry thunderstorms are possible along with localized elevated fire weather conditions. Most of the convection should diminish in the late evening. Tomorrow the high pressure will become centered just south of the Four Corners. Weak moisture occurs in this region due to drifting of the high. Terrain-driven convection is expected over the higher elevations and overall coverage will be similar to today. The one difference will be chances for isolated showers and storms in the southeast Utah mountains. Gusty outflow winds and dry thunderstorms are the main concern with limited wetting rains. High temperatures should end up very close to what occurs today. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Saturday evening, the high pressure is centered on the Colorado-New Mexico border with ridging extending north along the Rocky Mountains, and the low off the Pacific Northwest is just starting to climb the ridge as it moves on shore. As the low plows into the ridge, it dislodges the high from its anchor point where it's been for the past week, letting it slide east out onto the plains Sunday. The inverted trough under the high rounds the western edge and tracks north along the Baja Peninsula, opening the door for the deep moisture over the Gulf of California, the Sonoran Desert and southern Arizona to push up through northern Arizona into southern Utah and Southwestern Colorado initiating the first full monsoonal surge of the season. Convective activity will pick up across the Four Corners area into the southern Mountains through the day Sunday and continue to push north into the central mountains through the evening. An initial look at the dynamics indicates CAPEs of a few hundred and sheer through the column of about 15 kts won't necessarily produce severe storms, but will make for efficient rain makers as they wring out on the southern faces of the San Juan Mountains. Add to this the weak steering flow out of the south, these slow moving storms will be a threat for localized heavy rain with risks for flash flooding beginning Sunday evening. With the high parked over northern Texas, the deep moisture continues to stream into the region Monday, pushing north to the Wyoming border through the day. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the lower valleys and over the higher terrain north of the I-70 corridor across eastern Utah and Western Colorado, with more widespread storms through the central and southern mountains. Models indicate the inverted trough may move north over the region overnight Monday to support nocturnal convection, some of which could become strong with the increased CAPE and sheer with the trough; definitely something to watch. With the deep moisture and weak steering flow, flash flooding will continue to be the primary threat with these storms. This pattern will continue Tuesday with widespread thunderstorms across the higher terrain along and south of the I-70 corridor with scattered storms through the lower elevations and across the northern mountains. This activity will be supported by another disturbance moving up around the high. By Wednesday, the high circulates drier air into the Desert Southwest to close the tap on the deeper moisture. This will decrease the coverage and intensity of the showers and thunderstorms across the region by Thursday, and this drying trend looks to continue into the end of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Threat of afternoon convection will be confined to higher terrain, mainly along the Divide. Dry conditions will minimize the possibility for rain over TAF sites, however, gusty outflow winds from nearby convection will likely spread across adjacent valleys by mid-afternoon. Storms wane after sunset, with terrain driven winds anticipated overnight. Saturday will generally mimic conditions this afternoon, with the exception of an uptick in storm coverage across the southwest San Juans. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 348 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-291000- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 348 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening mainly over the higher elevations. Strong gusty winds will be possible around these showers. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Wednesday. Showers and storms will be possible each afternoon through Wednesday. Chances for moderate to heavy rain increase on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday as storms become more widespread. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Bear Creek Fire started in late July from a lightning strike 20 miles northwest of Pagosa Springs in the San Juan National Forest. The fire grew to 1,093 acres before it was contained in late September.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1128864.