After high pressure dominated western Colorado for several days, moisture gradually increased ahead of an approaching system. This led to the development of isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
After high pressure dominated western Colorado for several days, moisture gradually increased ahead of an approaching system. This led to the development of isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms. Given the dry air at the lower levels, gusty outflow winds were the primary threat from storms. The stronger storms produced gusty winds in excess of 58 mph across Moffat County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 10:35 AM MST, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1135 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 426 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High pressure is centered over the Colorado/New Mexico state line. Due to the proximity to the high temperatures will again be near record across the area. Subtropical moisture has started to work into the region and PWATs will climb today to 0.5 to 0.8 inches over portions of the CWA. Therefore we are expecting another round of convection this afternoon. Storm coverage will slightly increase compared to yesterday, much of the convection will be high-based resulting in gusty outflow winds. Dry thunderstorms will be a concern as well, potentially resulting in some fire starts. However, coverage remains isolated to scattered in nature so have not issued any fire weather highlights at this time. The Uintas and San Juans look to be the most favored locations for showers although other ranges should at least have some isolated convection. Like yesterday, gusty outflow winds will be common and will push through the valleys in the afternoon and evening hours. Gusts of 40-50 mph are possible especially given the high cloud bases and warm temperatures. Without any notable lift aloft tonight, showers and storms will once again taper off after sunset. Tomorrow the high drifts to the southeast over eastern New Mexico. This will keep the door open to the moisture advection. With the increase in moisture we will see an uptick in the coverage of afternoon convection. Also, we may introduce a higher potential for a wetting rains in the higher elevations. Unfortunately, the midslopes and lower valleys are still looking at warm and dry conditions that will inhibit rainfall amounts. As a result there is still the potential for dry thunderstorms. In relation to that gusty outflow winds are likely. Another factor that comes into play is that a jet streak passing to our north may provide some enhancement to the lift. Whether or not a shortwave accompanies that is difficult to determine but possible. Depending on the timing that may keep showers going through the evening hours. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 426 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 On Wednesday, the high continues to spin over New Mexico. The northern extent of this ridge flattens thanks to a low pressure system moving eastward through southern/central Canada. Wednesday looks to be the last day of good moisture advection along the western edge of this feature. This will leave PWATs hovering above normal through mid week allowing for relatively widespread daily chances of afternoon showers and storms. Any activity will favor the high terrain with some limited chances for movement into nearby valleys. High based storms with lightning and gusty outflow winds are biggest concern given the antecedent conditions. After this point, the high continues to elongate and wiggle about to our south. PWATs appear to remain at or above normal through the end of the month thanks to the moisture tap allowed by the stagnated pattern. That being said, best chances for appreciable precipitation accumulations should remain over the divide of the southwestern and central Colorado mountains. Temperatures will moderate ever so slightly from the short term, generally hovering around 5 degrees above normal throughout the long term period. Long term blends are hinting toward more normal (maybe just below normal) temperatures under increased cloud cover heading into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 High based showers and storms are expected to form this afternoon over the higher terrain with KTEX standing the best chance to see VCTS. Otherwise, isolated to scattered coverage is anticipated and confidence on direct impacts to TAF sites is low. However, can expect breezy afternoon winds, especially where outflow winds from thunderstorms move through...similar to yesterday. Gusts could range from 30 to 50 mph depending on where outflow winds track in the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms should diminish shortly after sunset with scattered to broken cloud cover remaining through the night. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...SS AVIATION...MDA
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 438 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-251045- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 438 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible on high terrain today. Gusty outflow winds and lightning pose the greatest threat with these storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The potential for thunderstorms continues through the next several days. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will remain the main threats with any activity. Storm coverage is expected to increase tomorrow then taper some late week, as moisture supplies dwindle again. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 171 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:55 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A peak wind gust of 60 MPH was measured by the automated weather station at the Craig Moffat County Airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1104618.