A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 12 miles west of Pagosa Springs.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 12 miles west of Pagosa Springs.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 9:57 PM MST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1057 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Satellite imagery shows the trough axis has already pushed east of the Front Range indicating the 12Z models are lagging three to six hours. Thunderstorms have been firing over the northern and central Colorado mountains through the morning and afternoon supported by the cool air aloft and the dynamics of the left exit region of a jetstreak moving across eastern Utah and Western Colorado. Subsidence on the backside of the trough is capping convection farther west over the eastern Uinta Mountains and northwestern Colorado limiting activity to isolated showers. Otherwise widespread cumulus are popping across eastern Utah and Western Colorado indicative of the mid-level moisture that has moved into the area, but again, these are mostly capped to fair weather cumulus. As the subsiding layer shifts east over the Divide, and the decrease in daytime heating going into the evening hours, look for the showers and thunderstorms to rapidly diminish in the hours leading up to sunset. With the troughing aloft and the northerly flow, high temperatures are running about five to ten degrees below normal this afternoon. High pressure builds in over the Desert Southwest overnight and into Saturday with ridging extending north into southern Idaho and Wyoming, pretty much squashing convective activity across the region tomorrow with only a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower over the Uintas and along the Divide. Temperatures Saturday will warm about five degrees over today under mostly clear skies. The northerly breezes overnight will give way to light, terrain driven diurnal winds Saturday. Saturday night will have mild weather under mostly clear skies. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Northwest flow will still dominate the area on Sunday as a large sprawling area of high pressure sits across the west, centered over southern Nevada. A weak shortwave looks to brush the divide as it tracks down the Front Range and Plains, with isolated storms possible along the central and southern divide mountains. Seems though that activity will stay east of our CWA for the most part. The ridge of high pressure will expand further eastward towards our CWA by Monday and Tuesday with the center moving south of the Four Corners. This will allow temperatures to climb to near or above triple digit heat for the lower central and southern desert valleys. Now there is a fly in the ointment...a large trough of low pressure tracking across western Canada. This western Canadian trough will act to suppress the high pressure ridge southward and prevent it from amplifying northward. Several waves will eject out of this trough across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies, and the deterministic models are not in great agreement with how far south energy from these shortwave troughs will dive. The GFS is the furthest south with these waves, showing increasing coverage of showers and storms across the northern and central portions of our CWA on Monday and especially Tuesday, while the EC and Canadian are further north, with just some isolated activity favoring the north but not as far south. The NBM is having nothing to do with the more unsettled and aggressive GFS, keeping minimal PoPs through this period and an overall drier and subsequently hotter forecast. So, despite the disagreements with storm activity and coverage, the jet associated with this trough does lay west to east across the Great Basin and into eastern Utah and western Colorado, allowing the gradient to tighten on Tuesday. The air mass still remains very dry despite a little increase in moisture across the north, so this draws attention to elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday and beyond. After the shortwave activity associated with the Canadian trough moves eastward by Thursday, there are discrepancies between models on where to position the high. The GFS indicates this high retrograding back to the west, allowing for a western ridge to take hold. The EC and Canadian indicate the high shifting to the southeast over Texas, allowing the flow to shift to the southwest which could allow some moisture to move in from the southwest. The NBM guidance seemed reasonable to keep a drier forecast with above normal temperatures until better consistency is seen this far out. High temperatures through the long term period look to stay about 5 degrees or so above normal with exception being the mountains and some areas across the north where storm activity is possible Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1054 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 VFR conditions and terrain-driven winds are expected through the taf period. Isolated showers are possible over the mountains in the afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 121 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-010730- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 121 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A disturbance passing through will result in a few more afternoon showers and thunderstorms today, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. Gusty outflow winds and lightning are the primary threats. Most showers and storms will dissipate shortly after sunset, giving way to quiet weather overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday High pressure builds into the region for the weekend, resulting in a return to dry weather with increasingly hotter temperatures. As it stands, near triple digit highs are a good bet across the lower desert valleys of eastern Utah and western Colorado through midweek. Other than the potential for a few showers and storms in the higher terrain along the Continental Divide next week, mainly dry weather will continue to be the rule. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
831 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 16 NW Moab 38.75N 109.75W
06/30/2023 M53 MPH Grand UT ASOS
ASOS station KCNY 16 NW Moab.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Chris Mountain Fire started in late June from a lightning strike, 12 miles west of Pagosa Springs, and grew to 511 acres before it was contained in late July.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1103995.