Arkansas, 2023

Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, March 24, 2023

March 24, 2023 · NWS LZK · 24 events in 17 counties and zones

Several inches of rain fell across Arkansas associated with a storm system moving across the region. Flash flooding and some severe weather was noted.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
24

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.

Several inches of rain fell across Arkansas associated with a storm system moving across the region. Flash flooding and some severe weather was noted.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 24, 2:11 AM CST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 24, 2:11 AM CST, 2 hours 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
311 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night )
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

To begin the period, a slow moving frontal boundary currently
situated over the northwestern part of the state will continue to
bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms across northern and
central parts of the state. As we approach sunrise, expect
showers and thunderstorms to become more widespread across central
and northern Arkansas. Given latest CAMs, this looks to be a two-
pronged event with initial convection this morning and a second
round arriving later this afternoon and evening. Calmer conditions
return by the end of the period as the front clears the state and
high pressure builds in.

As mentioned above, the weather system to impact the state today
will bring the threat for damaging winds, tornadoes, hail, and heavy
rainfall. As we continue into the afternoon hours, the frontal
boundary (situated over NW AR) is expected to push east and
southeast...as the front moves into a more favorable airmass, storms
could intensify along and ahead of the front.

High-res models are looking particularly concerning each model cycle
as supercells could fire off ahead of the main line...followed by a
squall line bringing the chance for QLCS tornadoes and damaging
winds. This set up is looking particularly concerning for the
southeastern half of the state, especially for portions of the
ArkLaMiss region. Given dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s to near 70
degrees, CAPE values of 1000+ J/kg, 0-3 km SRH values of 300-500
m2/s2, and afternoon/evening timing of convection...it all points to
an increasing threat for a severe weather outbreak. Please
continue to monitor reliable weather sources for updated
information and make sure you have a plan in place in case you are
put under a tornado/severe thunderstorm warning. Also, make sure
to remain weather aware today!

An additional threat associated with this system looks to be the
heavy rain/flooding potential. Model guidance suggests PWAT values
could range from 1.50-1.75+ inches across the state. This becomes a
greater concern when you look at how saturated soil conditions are
given past rainfall events...elevating the threat for flooding. Long
story short...the rainfall has no where to go.

Given the latest model guidance...the highest QPF values look most
likely across portions of northern and central Arkansas where two to
four inches of rain are expected with locally higher amounts
possible. Additionally, up to an inch will be possible for portions
of southern Arkansas. A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of
northern and central Arkansas through Saturday morning to express
the concern for flooding in these areas. Given model uncertainty
on extent of the heaviest rainfall...locations outside of the
flood watch should still be aware of the flash flooding potential.
Ultimately, the heaviest of the rain will be found along and
north of wherever the warm fronts makes it.

Temperatures are forecast to be above average through the period.
High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s to lower 80s
with overnight low temps in the lower 40s to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Period will feature just a few showers over the far southern part of
the state Sunday followed by several days of dry conditions. This in
turn will be followed by yet another chance of precipitation to
close out the period. The models are not in the best of agreement in
the overall evolution of the pattern so a general middle of the road
approach will be used.

Period initiates with a broad cyclonic flow over the majority of the
nation with a quasi stationary surface boundary remaining along the
gulf coast. A wave is expected to develop along this boundary Sunday
with maybe a few showers sneaking into the far southern part of the
state but most areas will remain dry. With broad southerly flow in
place, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 60s to mid
70s.

Upper flow will be largely zonal through the middle of the week with
a non nondescript wave or two rippling through the prevailing flow.
Other than occasional passing clouds, these waves will move through
with little fan fare. High temperatures early next week are expected
to be close to seasonal averages.

Meanwhile another strong upper low will be slamming into the
California coast around the middle part of the week. This system
will move inland and into the the western high plains with lee side
cyclogenesis expected.

As the system kicks out to the northeast, moisture will be pulled
back into the region with showers and the occasional thunderstorm
returning late in the forecast period as the associated surface
boundary approaches. Rainfall amounts do not appear to be excessive
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Mostly MVFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours
with conditions to continuing to deteriorate through the early
morning hours. As terminals are affected by SHRA/TSRA, expect
MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds will be mostly out of the south and
southeast and could be gusty at times. Precip will come to an end
late in the period as a frontal boundary clears the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  50  69  46 / 100  70   0   0
Camden AR         79  52  75  47 /  90  40   0   0
Harrison AR       62  43  62  41 / 100  40  10   0
Hot Springs AR    72  50  71  46 / 100  40   0   0
Little Rock   AR  76  52  74  48 / 100  60   0   0
Monticello AR     81  57  78  51 /  90  80   0   0
Mount Ida AR      70  48  71  44 / 100  30   0   0
Mountain Home AR  63  45  63  42 / 100  40  10   0
Newport AR        71  51  66  48 / 100  80   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     79  55  75  49 / 100  70   0   0
Russellville AR   69  47  70  43 / 100  40   0   0
Searcy AR         74  49  71  45 / 100  70   0   0
Stuttgart AR      78  54  72  49 / 100  90   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>046-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-
203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

SHORT TERM...233
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...233
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 24, 3:20 AM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
420 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-250930-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
420 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread today as a cold
front pushes through the area. There is an increase threat for
severe storms this afternoon and evening as the cold front pushes
through the state. The southeastern half of the state currently
sees the greatest risk for hail...damaging winds...and tornadoes.
Additionally, flash flooding will be possible across portions of
the state given already saturated soils and heavy rainfall
expected.

Make sure to remain weather aware today and have multiple ways to
receive warnings. Additionally, have a plan in place should you
be put under a tornado warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Required

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

233/56

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 82 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:26 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

15 flash flood, 7 heavy rain, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, White

When
March 24, 4:26 AM CST to 7:26 AM CST
Where
White County, 0.69 mi S of Bald Knob to 0.86 mi S of Bald Knob
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
35.310, -91.570

Numerous accidents occurred in areas of high water.

Heavy Rain, Newton

When
March 24, 11:04 AM CST
Where
Newton County, 0.56 mi W of Jasper
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
36.000, -93.190

Heavy rain was measured at 2.50 inches in Jasper.

Thunderstorm Wind, Saline

When
March 24, 11:06 AM CST
Where
Saline County, 0.69 mi S of Benton Saline Co Arp
Measured
50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
34.560, -92.600

A house in Benton sustained moderate damage when two trees fell on the structure. Winds were believed to be sub severe, and the trees likely fell due to extremely saturated soil conditions.

Flash Flood, Polk

When
March 24, 2:10 PM CST
Where
Polk County, 0.57 mi W of Mena to 0.28 mi NNW of Mena
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
34.580, -94.240

Flash flooding was observed in multiple areas across the county, including water over multiple roadways.

Flash Flood, Scott

When
March 24, 2:26 PM CST
Where
Scott County, 0.57 mi E of Hon to 0.3 mi E of Hon
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Department of Highways
Coordinates
34.930, -94.170

A little more than 4 miles of state highway 80 was closed between Hon and Anderson due to flash flooding.

Heavy Rain, Johnson

When
March 24, 2:27 PM CST
Where
Johnson County, Clarksville to 0.13 mi SSW of Clarksville
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
35.470, -93.470

Widespread street flooding was observed in and around Clarksville. Rainfall was measured at 6.50 inches in Clarksville.

Heavy Rain, Independence

When
March 24, 3:10 PM CST
Where
Independence County, 1.68 mi E of Batesville
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
35.770, -91.620

Numerous sites across the county reported between 4.00 and 4.25 inches of rain.

Flash Flood, Saline

When
March 24, 3:15 PM CST to 6:15 PM CST
Where
Saline County, 1.29 mi WSW of Alum Fork to 1.07 mi W of Reform
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
34.795, -92.862

A 68-year old man on a motorcycle tried to cross a road at the Lake Winona spillway. He was swept off the pavement and down the Alum Fork Saline River where he drowned, 5 miles northwest of Paron.

Flash Flood, Pope

When
March 24, 3:24 PM CST to 6:24 PM CST
Where
Pope County, 0.56 mi E of Oakland Hgts to 0.67 mi WSW of Russellville
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
35.270, -93.140

Numerous roadways under water in and around Russellville.

Flash Flood, Garland

When
March 24, 3:31 PM CST to 6:31 PM CST
Where
Garland County, 2.2 mi SW of Ozark Lithia to 2.45 mi SW of Ozark Lithia
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
34.580, -93.050

Numerous roads in and north of Hot Springs were under water.

Flash Flood, Logan

When
March 24, 3:32 PM CST to 6:32 PM CST
Where
Logan County, 1.39 mi ESE of Booneville to 1.9 mi SW of Booneville Muni Arpt
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
River/Stream Gage
Coordinates
35.124, -93.906

The Petit Jean River at Booneville rose approximately 16 feet and came out of its banks near Booneville.

Heavy Rain, Conway

When
March 24, 3:42 PM CST
Where
Conway County, 2.36 mi WSW of Petit Jean State Park
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
35.120, -92.940

Rainfall was measured at 3.10 inches on the south side of Petit Jean Mountain.

Heavy Rain, Conway

When
March 24, 3:42 PM CST
Where
Conway County, 2.36 mi WSW of Petit Jean State Park
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
35.120, -92.940

Rainfall was measured at 3.10 inches on the south side of Petit Jean Mountain.

Flash Flood, Johnson

When
March 24, 3:44 PM CST to 6:44 PM CST
Where
Johnson County, Clarksville to 0.26 mi E of Clarksville
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
35.470, -93.470

At least one house was flooded, some bridges were underwater, and multiple roadways were flooded across the county.

Flash Flood, Pulaski

When
March 24, 3:58 PM CST to 6:58 PM CST
Where
Pulaski County, 0.89 mi SE of Levy to 0.73 mi ESE of Levy
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
34.790, -92.260

Numerous roads and neighborhoods in North Little Rock flooded.

Flash Flood, Pulaski

When
March 24, 4:00 PM CST to 7:00 PM CST
Where
Pulaski County, 0.89 mi SE of Pulaski to 0.64 mi ESE of Pulaski
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
34.740, -92.310

Numerous roads flooded near the UALR Campus.

Thunderstorm Wind, Hot Spring

When
March 24, 4:10 PM CST
Where
Hot Spring County, 0.69 mi S of Glen Rose
Measured
52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
34.450, -92.730

Trees were blown down across the road in the Glen Rose area north of Malvern.

Flash Flood, Saline

When
March 24, 4:29 PM CST to 7:29 PM CST
Where
Saline County, 0.89 mi NW of Bryant to 1.46 mi N of Bryant
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
34.610, -92.490

Access roads along Interstate 30 were flooded in places, in particular near exit 123.

Flash Flood, Pulaski

When
March 24, 5:15 PM CST to 8:15 PM CST
Where
Pulaski County, Warsaw to 0.12 mi E of Warsaw
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
NWS Employee
Coordinates
34.950, -92.150

Portions of Peters Road were underwater and nearly impassable.

Flash Flood, Lonoke

When
March 24, 5:30 PM CST to 8:30 PM CST
Where
Lonoke County, Cabot to 0.21 mi NW of Cabot
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
34.970, -92.020

Numerous roads in Cabot were underwater.

Flash Flood, Jefferson

When
March 24, 5:56 PM CST to 8:56 PM CST
Where
Jefferson County, 0.69 mi N of Brewster to 0.15 mi NE of Brewster
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
34.210, -92.020

Numerous roads were underwater in Pine Bluff.

Flash Flood, Prairie

When
March 24, 7:57 PM CST to 10:57 PM CST
Where
Prairie County, 1.33 mi ENE of Hickory Plains to 1.21 mi SSW of Mooresville
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
34.990, -91.710

Multiple sections of Highway 38 were under water.

Heavy Rain, Polk

When
March 24, 8:11 PM CST
Where
Polk County, 0.57 mi W of Mena
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
34.580, -94.240

Rainfall was measured at 3.20 in Mena.

Heavy Rain, Lawrence

When
March 24, 8:37 PM CST
Where
Lawrence County, 0.69 mi N of Ravenden
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
36.240, -91.250

Rainfall was measured at 3.22 inches in Ravenden.

What these are

Flash Flood
Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
Heavy Rain
Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.
Thunderstorm Wind
Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arkansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, March 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1088178, 1088152, 1088154, 1088156, 1088158, 1088159, 1088160, 1090478, 1088161, 1088162, 1088163, 1088164, 1088165, 1088166, 1088167, 1088168, 1088169, 1088170, 1088171, 1088172, 1088173, 1088174, 1088176, 1088177.