Moderate to locally fresh trades and small northerly swell created choppy seas up to 6 feet and occasionally higher across the Atlantic waters. This resulted in life-threatening rip currents along the northern coast of Puerto Rico during the weekend of March 24-26.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Moderate to locally fresh trades and small northerly swell created choppy seas up to 6 feet and occasionally higher across the Atlantic waters. This resulted in life-threatening rip currents along the northern coast of Puerto Rico during the weekend of March 24-26.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 24, 11:08 AM AST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1108 AM AST Fri Mar 24 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...The forecast is on track. The patch that moved over the
area is quickly dissipating, leaving a few light showers across
the northern and eastern coastal areas. As diurnal heating
continues to play a key role, conditions are expected to dry out.
This will lead to mainly fair weather conditions, but limited shower
development is still likely across southwestern Puerto Rico this
afternoon. Winds will remain northeasterly at 10-20 mph with
higher gusts. Daytime high temperatures will peak into the mid 80s
to around 90 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will remain
out the ENE-NE at 15-20 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations, gradually decreasing and variable after 24/22Z. Impact
to operations will be limited, mainly at TJSJ and USVI terminals
after 24/23Z.
&&
.MARINE...No changes in the forecast. Choppy to hazardous marine
conditions will continue to spread across the regional waters.
Small Craft Advisories and a Rip Current Statement remains in
place.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...Today, expect a mixture of sunny skies and cloudiness
at times across the islands. However, afternoon showers are
anticipated across the interior and southwestern Puerto Rico. The
stable weather pattern will change into an unstable one by mid-
week of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A slight increase in moisture (but still below normal for today)
will bring some passing clouds with brief light rains across Puerto
Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and surrounding waters. Thus,
pleasant temperatures and a mixture of sunshine and clouds will
dominate local weather. Afternoon showers will affect the interior
and southwest PR but without significant impacts.
A frontal boundary will dissipate off to the north and northwest of
the islands today as a subtropical high pressure builds across the
Western Atlantic. The local pressure gradient will tighten in
response to the subtropical high pressure increasing the east to
east-northeast winds Saturday and Sunday.
The advective pattern will promote the arrival of moisture fragments
across the islands throughout the weekend. Therefore, expect a
mixture of sunshine/clear skies and clouds without ruling out a few
passing showers, especially across the windward sections and local
waters. The frequency of the passing rain showers will be higher on
Saturday.
For the Beachgoers, regardless of the fair weather conditions, life-
threatening rip currents will develop along the Atlantic Coastline's
surf zones in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and will
likely continue throughout the weekend as a long period
northeasterly swell invade the local waters.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
At this time, the mid-level high across the Caribbean Basin
continues to be the dominating feature and will continue to be
until Tuesday. The high-pressure system will maintain hostile
conditions from 500 mb to 700 mb, limiting the potential for
moderate to heavy rainfall activity. Therefore, by the beginning
of the workweek, expect a mixture of sunny skies and cloudiness
from time to time. Nevertheless, any rainfall activity across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will be due to showers
embedded within the trades or local effects. For the first part of
the workweek, expect a more zonal wind flow.
A short-wave trough will weaken the mid-level ridge by late Tuesday
into Wednesday, changing the weather conditions. This weakening
will allow more moisture to filter into the middle and upper
levels, making the development of moderate and heavy rainfall
likely.
An approaching mid to upper-level trough from the northwest will
increase instability for the second half of the workweek. Currently,
PWAT values fluctuate around an inch or slightly less from
Wednesday to Thursday. However, models suggest a higher increase
by Friday as the trough amplifies over the northwestern Caribbean
from Friday into the weekend. By the end of the workweek, the
precipitable water content will be around 1.30 inches or higher.
The latest models are showing Friday as the best day for organized
convection. Nonetheless, it is too early to determine the impacts
on Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
&&
.AVIATION....Similar to yesterday, VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will be mainly from the ENE-NE at less than 10 kts through
24/13z. Winds will return at 15-20 kt with higher gusts and sea
breeze variations aft 24/13z. Some showers will form across SW-PR
between 24/16-23z without impacting terminals.
&&
.MARINE...Moderate to locally fresh trades across the regional
waters will continue to promote choppy marine conditions with seas
up to 6 feet, and occasional higher. Small Craft should exercise
caution over the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, as well
as over the local passages. Marine conditions will likely further
deteriorate by the weekend due to increasing winds and the arrival
of a small swell from the northeast. A Small Craft Advisory will
be in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters from early Saturday
through at least Monday. A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect
for the northern, northeastern, northwestern beaches of Puerto
Rico, Culebra, and St. Thomas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today, expect favorable fire weather conditions
across Puerto Rico specially in the southern sections of the
island were a Fire Weather Warning is in effect. We urge you to
stay updated for any changes in the forecast and please stay aware
of your surroundings.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ014-027.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 2 AM AST Monday for
AMZ711.
&&
AVIATION...LISPerspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR 440 AM AST viernes 24 de marzo de 2023 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-250845- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central- Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe- 440 AM AST viernes 24 de marzo de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Vientos...Condiciones ventosas debido a la brisa marina y los vientos del noreste. Articulos no asegurados en el exterior pudieran ser arrastrados por los vientos. .Condiciones Maritimas...Los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas deben ejercer precaucion a traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales. Oleaje de 7 pies o mas se espera esta noche a traves de las Aguas Mar Afuera del Atlantico. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida se esperan en la zona de olas rompientes de la costa del Atlantico de Puerto Rico, incluyendo a Culebra. .Incendios...Condiciones del tiempo criticas para el desarrollo de incendios a partir de mitad de manana hacia horas de la tarde. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...sabado a jueves Condiciones ventosas promoveran oleaje picado a traves de las aguas locales a partir del fin de semana en adelante. Pulsos de marejadas de periodo largo del noreste causaran corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida durante todo el periodo del pronostico. El riesgo de condiciones del tiempo favorables para los incendios se mantendra elevado durante el fin de semana. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar situaciones relacionadas a las condiciones del tiempo. Favor de informar inundaciones, vientos y oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-250845- San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-Las aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlantico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 440 AM AST viernes 24 de marzo de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para las Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Condiciones Maritimas...Los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas deben ejercer precaucion a traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales. Oleaje de 7 pies o mas se espera esta noche a traves de las Aguas Mar Afuera del Atlantico. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida se esperan en la zona de olas rompientes de la costa de las playas del norte de las Islas Virgenes. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...sabado a jueves Condiciones ventosas promoveran oleaje picado a traves de las aguas locales a partir del fin de semana en adelante. Pulsos de marejadas de periodo largo del noreste causaran corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida durante todo el periodo del pronostico. El riesgo de condiciones del tiempo favorables para los incendios se mantendra elevado durante el fin de semana. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar situaciones relacionadas a las condiciones del tiempo. Favor de informar inundaciones, vientos y oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.
2 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A tourist male, approximately 40 years old, was swept away by rip currents and drowned at Las Picuas beach in Rio Grande.
A 55-year-old male tourist was swept away by rip currents at Escondida beach in Fajardo and drowned.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Northeast | 2023-03-24 | 40 | Male | In Water | Direct |
| Rip Current, Northeast | 2023-03-24 | 55 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1079802, 1079803.