Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, June 26, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
432 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390 is now in effect until 10 AM this
morning for all of our Southern Arkansas zones, McCurtain County
Oklahoma, portions of extreme NE Texas, and North Louisiana along
and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.

Several clusters of thunderstorms are currently moving across SE
Oklahoma and Southwest & South-Central Arkansas this morning. This
has resulted in multiple severe thunderstorm warnings over the
past hour or so. Additional warnings are possible through mid-
morning, as these storms push southward into extreme northeast
Texas and Northern Louisiana, just ahead of slow moving cool
front. By this afternoon, the front will settle just north of the
I-20 corridor. Dry conditions should settle across the region, as
the aforementioned upper ridge will still be in place across the
Southern Plains. Expect another day of high temperatures in the
mid to upper 90s areawide. Although humidity levels will be
slightly below yesterday's readings, a Heat Advisory will remain
in place areawide, as heat indices will range between 105-109
degrees. Unfortunately, as we move into the evening and overnight
hours, additional convection is expected to fire along the
stalled boundary. Can't rule out more severe weather, as steep
lapse rates, along with sufficient effective bulk shear and CAPE
will be in place. Large hail and damaging winds would be the
primary threats in any strong storms.

Convection should diminish by Tuesday morning, as the stalled
cool front will lift north of the region as a warm front. At the
same time, the center of the upper ridge will start to shift
eastward into central Texas. Dry conditions should return, with
temperatures climbing into the upper 90s areawide, along with a
few isolated 100 degree readings. Additional heat advisories
and/or excessive heat warnings will be needed, as heat indices
will once again climb above 105 degrees areawide. /20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

The long term forecast is looking a little "heat-wavey", but there
is light at the end of that tunnel by the weekend. We begin with the
heat ridge over E Texas at 594dam Tuesday evening. Two slow moving
deep long wave troughs, one on each major U.S. coast, will hold the
heat ridge in place right over the lower MS River Valley through
midweek and then some.

By Thursday afternoon the 594dam core will be precisely over the
center of our CWA, encompassing much of the midSouth. This will be a
heat wave like we haven't seen since early last summer and then
sporadically through last July, with several days coming around the
century mark or better, with some maxes up to 104 or 105 degrees on
air temps. Of course, the heat index will be at least slightly
higher with more need of a heat advisory or more likely excessive
heat warning material for much of our area.

By Saturday afternoon, the heat ridge will be on it's last leg
holding over the region at 593dam. During this time the east coast
trough will be well out in the Atlantic and the shallowing west
coast trough will phase into a clipper dropping out of Canada. This
will position the new and improved midWest/Great Lakes core low with
a full extension of the trough down into the southern plains, all
continuing to flatten our heat ridge.

By Sunday afternoon, the elongated and diminished heat ridge will be
a large area along the entire Gulf coast with several 590/591dam
pocket cores in a chain along 30 degrees N latitude. Meanwhile, the
core low will be edging over the SE Provinces of Canada, just south
of the Hudson Bay at 564dam and drifting eastward.  So our heights
aloft will continue to fall off next weekend to below the 590dam
contour bisecting our region.  In addition, a weak surface high
pressure area around 1013mb will try to shift the winds for us, but
overall, much if not all of the long term period will be met with
south or south westerly surface winds.

We will thankfully ease back off the triple digit pace established
during midweek. Our highs will be cooling in the low to mid 90s and
lows in the low to mid 70s for a little more comfortable late
weekend and holiday time-frame early next week. We will also see the
return to a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms by the
weekend. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

VFR conditions across the region, but some cloud debris from
thunderstorms have moved into KELD/KMLU. So far, upper ridging
over the area has kept storms from moving into the region.
However, models continue to suggest some convection will move into
our northern zones overnight into the early morning hours.
Therefore, decided to add VCTS/TSRA at KTXK/KELD/KMLU/KSHV.
Convection should clear by mid-morning, with some lingering mid to
high clouds. Eventually, VFR conditions will return, with some few
to scattered afternoon CU, before skies clear near sunset. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  80 100  80 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  96  77  98  78 /  40  30  10   0
DEQ  94  74  97  75 /  20  30  10   0
TXK  95  78  98  79 /  30  20  10   0
ELD  94  74  97  76 /  40  30  10   0
TYR  97  78  99  78 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  97  78  98  78 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  98  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
352 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

LAZ010-011-017>022-TXZ124-125-136>138-149>153-165>167-270900-
De Soto-Red River-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
Wood-Upshur-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-
Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
352 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Louisiana,
northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Oppressive heat will continue through the afternoon as highs in the
upper 90s combined with higher dew points will result in heat
indices of 105-109 degrees or higher. Therefore, a Heat Advisory
will be in effect until 7 PM this evening. A marginal threat for
severe storms will develop this evening and into the overnight hours,
mainly along the the I-30 corridor and the northern tier of the
warning area. The threat of damaging winds and hail will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Overall daily rain chances will decrease throughout the upcoming
work week, as upper ridging builds over the region. Heat will become
the primary concern as high temperatures will be pushing triple
digits. Heat advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings are likely
during this period. The risk of heat related illness will be
possible, so taking proper heat related safety measures will be
crucial.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-012>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-126-270900-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Bienville-
Jackson-Ouachita-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Marion-
352 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms, some severe, will continue across the northern tier of
the warning area ahead of sunrise. The threat of damaging winds and
hail will exist with stronger thunderstorms. As a result, a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 AM CDT this morning.
Oppressive heat will continue through the afternoon as highs in the
upper 90s combined with higher dew points will result in heat indices
of 105-109 degrees or higher. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will be in
effect until 7 PM this evening. A marginal threat for severe storms
will develop this evening and into the overnight hours, mainly along
the the I-30 corridor and the northern tier of the warning area. The
threat of damaging winds and hail will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Overall daily rain chances will decrease throughout the upcoming
work week, as upper ridging builds over the region. Heat will become
the primary concern as high temperatures will be pushing triple
digits. Heat advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings are likely
during this period. The risk of heat related illness will be
possible, so taking proper heat related safety measures will be
crucial.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
337 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

OKZ077-260930-
McCurtain OK-
337 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
McCurtain County through 430 AM CDT...

At 336 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Cloudy, or 22 miles southeast of Clayton, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wright City, Millerton, Slim, Ringold, Glover and Golden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 9476 3395 9503 3415 9516 3424 9515
      3425 9505 3438 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0836Z 325DEG 15KT 3432 9514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
347 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

ARZ073-LAZ006-014-260945-
Union AR-Ouachita LA-Union LA-
347 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Union County, Union
and north central Ouachita Parishes through 445 AM CDT...

At 346 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ingalls to near Junction City. Movement
was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
El Dorado, Huttig, Farmerville, Strong, Calion, Wesson, Urbana,
Lawson, Lapile, Moro Bay State Park, Marion, Felsenthal, Spearsville,
Newell, New London, Oakland, Haile, Pigeon Hill, Rocky Branch and
Cecil.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
south central Arkansas...and north central Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 9206 3255 9227 3315 9283 3335 9253
      3332 9252 3332 9246 3329 9247 3327 9244
      3330 9235 3326 9232 3328 9230 3325 9223
      3321 9223 3321 9218 3316 9217 3316 9211
      3310 9214 3301 9207 3287 9208 3284 9206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0846Z 306DEG 34KT 3334 9214 3296 9274

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
411 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

ARZ050-059-OKZ077-261015-
Sevier AR-Little River AR-McCurtain OK-
411 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Little
River, southwestern Sevier and east central McCurtain Counties
through 515 AM CDT...

At 411 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Broken Bow, or 19 miles west of Horatio, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Horatio, Foreman, Broken Bow, Winthrop, Arkinda, Haworth, Eagletown,
Bokhoma, Moon, Cerrogordo, Central, Goodwater, Shinewell, Holly
Creek, America, West Line, Oak Hill and West Otis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southwestern Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 9493 3412 9472 3392 9419 3368 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0911Z 299DEG 18KT 3400 9469

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
427 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

ARZ072-073-261030-
Union AR-Columbia AR-
427 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Union and
northeastern Columbia Counties through 530 AM CDT...

At 427 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Holly, or 12 miles west of Smackover, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
El Dorado, Smackover, Norphlet, McNeil, Calion, Village, Lisbon,
Mount Holly, Wesson, Ebenezer, Newell, Laughlin, Marysville, Cairo,
Three Creeks, Kenova, Spotville and Medlock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
south central and southwestern Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 9247 3329 9246 3302 9285 3336 9323
      3345 9312 3338 9312 3337 9279 3339 9276
      3336 9266 3337 9265 3336 9260 3337 9259
      3336 9254 3332 9252 3333 9250 3332 9249
      3333 9248 3330 9246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0927Z 322DEG 20KT 3338 9295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

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