A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 18 miles south of Pagosa Springs.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 18 miles south of Pagosa Springs.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 26, 1:54 AM MST, 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
254 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023
No, you don't live in Wyoming but it'll feel that way thanks to
the windy conditions we'll see for much of the week. As we've
talked about over the last few days, a tightening pressure
gradient at the surface with the jet stream overhead will cause
gusty winds each afternoon and evening. Broad southwesterly flow
will continue to pump dry air into the region so fire weather
concerns are heightened as described below. Outside of the winds,
look for plenty of sunny skies today as high temperatures remain a
bit above normal. Guidance continues to show a small amount of
moisture moving up from New Mexico as it rotates around high
pressure centered over Texas. Guidance, including the CAMs, are
now indicating the chance for some very isolated showers to form
from about Pagosa Springs eastward. If they form, only looking for
about .05 to .1 inches of rain so nothing to get excited about.
The NBM is also on board with this solution so forecast follows
track with very low PoPs early Tuesday morning through about noon.
The remainder of Tuesday will bring another day of gusty winds but
stronger as the surface pressure gradient tightens. Wind gusts may
reach advisory levels but will hold off on issuing any highlights
to see how models handle today with regards to wind. Like today,
outside of the winds, sunshine and warm temperatures will be the
rule.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023
Gusty winds will linger through midnight Tuesday across the Four
Corners and into the higher elevations of the San Juans, before
they, too, finally die down. With little change in the pattern
expected aside from a bit of relaxing of the pressure gradient
aloft, Wednesday is shaping up to very similar to Tuesday, albeit
with winds just a touch less intense. This means that, with dry air
still in place, Wednesday will see another period of critical fire
weather conditions in the afternoon. No fire weather highlights are
in effect as of yet, but stay tuned to forecast updates, as they are
looking increasingly likely. As this is going on, a shortwave is
forecast to drop south out of the Pacific Northwest. This energy is
what will finally help to kick out the trough that has been
lingering along the West Coast. As this wave rounds the base of
trough Thursday morning, the trough itself will have begun to
weaken. This, in turn, will continue to relax the pressure
gradient aloft over eastern Utah and western Colorado. So, despite
an approaching shortwave, winds on Thursday will likely be even
weaker than those on Wednesday.
On Friday, the trough axis will pass overhead, bringing with it a
much needed break from the windy conditions. Winds will even become
northerly to northwesterly, tapping into a little bit of moisture
and pulling it in across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado.
Despite the moisture, large scale subsidence and a lack of
instability will put a limit on any showers or storms that can form
on Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, though, a little bit better
instability means a few more showers will be able to fire off the
higher terrain across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado.
Otherwise, the weekend will be relatively quiet. Temperatures will
remain right around normal throughout the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2023
Skies will remain clear and VFR conditions will prevail for the
next 24 hours. Winds tonight will be generally light and terrain
driven. By the midmorning hours, expect winds to become
southwesterly and steadily increase, becoming gusty after noon.
Gusts up to 30 knots are expected across the area. Winds will
diminish slowly after sunset.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023
The hot, dry, and occasionally windy southwest flow pattern
continues for at least the next week. Where fuels are cured
across low elevations of the forecast area, critical fire weather
conditions will exist over the next few days. The Red Flag
Warnings remain in effect for today and tomorrow. The Fire Weather
Watch for CO Fire Zone 295 has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning with this morning's package. Gusty winds will continue
Wednesday and Thursday and with dry conditions in place, good
chance that Red Flag Warnings will also be needed for those days
as well. Stay tuned.
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for COZ203-207-290>293-295.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ203.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ207-
290>293-295.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for UTZ491.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ491.
&&
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE...TGJTThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Coal Mine Fire started in late June from a lightning strike, 18 miles south of Pagosa Springs, and grew to 292 acres before it was contained in mid July.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1101971.