NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 26, 2:59 AM EST, 4 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 26, 2:59 AM EST, 4 hours 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will track across the Great Lakes today,
pulling a cold front toward our area tonight. As this low slides
across our area Tuesday into Wednesday, the cold front will
cross our region. Weak high pressure may settle near our area
Thursday and Friday, then a warm front lifts northward later
Saturday followed by a cold front later Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest analysis depicts surface low pressure centered over
Michigan, with a weak warm front extending southeastward into
our area and a cold front extending south across the Ohio and
Mississippi Valleys. High pressure is centered off the east
coast and over the High Plains. The remnant trough from the
upper low which has plagued us recently is now heading east
along the southern New England coast, while a much stronger
upper low is pushing across Lake Michigan.
As expected, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
crossing the region early this morning, fueled by the developing
low level jet as it advects even warmer and more moist air
northward into our area ahead of the oncoming storm to our west.
These will gradually shift northward as the morning continues,
with most areas near and south of Philadelphia turning out
partly sunny by midday. Further north, spotty showers and
thunderstorms may continue to develop across the Lehigh Valley,
northwestern NJ and the Poconos as the warm frontal boundary
gets a bit hung up. This will result in two potential issues for
this afternoon... 1, the focus of heavy rain will be enhanced in
this area and 2, shear and helicity will also be maximized,
possibly giving this area the best chance of a tornadic storm.
Meanwhile, further south, extended partly sunny and mostly dry
conditions should result in ample CAPE into 2000+ J/KG range by
later this afternoon, just as the cold front and upper trough
approach. This should result in cells forming to the west and
coalescing into a line which will have significant wind damage
potential, along with heavy rain, hail and perhaps even an
embedded tornado as well. With high DCAPE thanks to temps
expected to be near 90, wind damage does appear to be the
highest risk for Philadelphia on southward. Further north, there
is an enhanced flood risk due to potential for training and
repeated rounds of storms midday into this evening, so have
issued a flood watch for potential flash flooding. Widespread
1-2 inches of rain with localized amounts of 3-5 inches look
possible given repeated storms and high PW's. In Philadelphia
and points south and east, these areas could face flood issues
but there is less risk of multiple rounds and overall, less rain
expected, so held off on a watch for these areas, though given
the flashy nature of the urban corridor, would not be surprised
to see some flash flood warnings in this area as well. The watch
may be expanded southeastward later today.
Storms should diminish this evening with lingering showers
overnight as temps cool back into the 60s. Some patchy fog may
form overnight, especially if there are any breaks in the
clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Summary...A few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening
could be strong to severe. Some additional showers and
thunderstorms expected on Wednesday.
As an upper-level trough moves into the East Tuesday, surface
low pressure initially over the eastern Great Lakes is forecast
to track east-northeast. An associated cold front moves through
Tuesday night, however a pre-frontal trough may be in our
vicinity during the day Tuesday. A moist low-level environment
will still be in place, however model forecast soundings show
mid level drying occurring. Given the upper-level trough in
place and the arrival of a cold front (pre-frontal trough near
the coastal plain), some showers and thunderstorms are expected
to once again develop during the afternoon and evening hours.
Scaled back the PoPs quite a bit in the morning as any very
early activity should have already cleared our area to the
northeast. While the deep-layer shear is on the weaker side,
ample instability combined with forcing should result in some
thunderstorm development. Some guidance is showing some possible
linear development across parts of eastern Pennsylvania into
northern New Jersey toward later in the afternoon associated
with a lobe of stronger shortwave energy. The model forecast
soundings show steep low-level lapse rates occurring and this
will result in decent downdraft instability (DCAPE). Stronger
convective cores could also enhance downdraft winds due to the
mid level dry air forecast to be in place, therefore isolated
damaging wind gusts are possible. A Marginal Risk (level 1 out
of 5) from SPC is in place from about the I-95 corridor
eastward. The convection will be shifting to our east Tuesday
night as the cold front works its way through. Also,
precipitable water values are forecast to be near 1.50 inches
still, therefore locally heavy rain expected although storm
motions should keep convection moving along overall.
As we go through Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast
to be over our region however much of the energy will be in the
process of lifting to our northeast and east. The presence of
this trough will keep chances for some mainly afternoon and
early evening convection, with the far northern areas having the
highest chances. The air mass is forecast to become a little
less humid, as dew points drop into the low to mid 60s overall.
Any convection should be dissipating or moving out of our area
early in the evening with things settling down for the
overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summary...More opportunities for some showers and
thunderstorms, with Thursday potentially having the lowest
chances.
Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough is forecast to
gradually be lifting out during Thursday with the flow aloft
turning briefly a bit more zonal. The next upper-level trough
then slides across the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley Saturday
before slowly shifting eastward through Sunday. Weak low
pressure should be departinToday through 0Z.g to our northeast
Thursday into Friday with potentially weak high pressure nearby.
The axis of the Great Lakes to Ohio Valley upper- level trough
looks slower to shift eastward, and this would steer surface low
pressure up across the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday into
Sunday with a warm front lifting north across our area. Its
associated cold front is currently forecast to then arrive late
Sunday.
For Thursday and Friday...The upper-level trough is forecast to
gradually be lifting out. This will take surface low pressure
to our northeast across New England. Despite the surface system
departing Thursday, the departing upper-level trough should
result in at least some chances for additional convection. This
should be primarily diurnally driven. The chances should be
decreasing though as we lose the influence from the upper-level
trough. Weak high pressure may then settle nearby, although a
cold front to our north should remain there as the next upper-
level trough starts to take more shape well to our west. Daytime
high temperatures are forecast to be climbing back to right
around averages for this time of year on Friday as the air mass
moderates.
For Saturday and Sunday...The next in a series of upper-level
troughs looks to be delaying its eastward shift. This would put
the track of surface low pressure to our west now, with it
lifting across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. A
warm front will then lift across our area later Saturday into
Sunday morning, followed but a cold front later Sunday. Given
the upper-level trough forecast to be well to our west, forcing
for ascent may not be as strong. There is the potential for at
least some convection with the warm front, a possible pre-
frontal trough and then eventually the cold front as it arrives.
Given the uncertainty at this range, continued with PoPs no
higher than the chance range.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today and tonight...Scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA early this
morning likely gives way to mostly dry conditions mid- morning
thru mid afternoon for KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY, with VFR
conditions predominating. Some MVFR cigs may develop around
KPNE/KTTN before or shortly after sunrise, but these should
break by mid- late morning. Further northwest, scatttered
SHRA/isolated TSRA likely continue through the morning into
midday before becoming more widespread mid-afternoon thru
evening, with instances of IFR vsby and MVFR cigs likely along
with potential for winds gusting 30-40 kts in strongest storms.
Further south, remainder of terminals likely see storms in a
more concise period starting late afternoon into mid-evening,
but with similar threats. MVFR cigs and visby may then develop
late tonight as rain ends and some breaks occur.
Outlook...
Tuesday...MVFR ceilings possible to start the day, then VFR
however some mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will result in local restrictions at times.
Southerly winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest near 5 knots
at night. Low confidence in timing details.
Wednesday...VFR, however some some mainly afternoon and early
evening showers and thunderstorms can result in brief
restrictions. Southwest to west winds around 10 knots,
diminishing some at night. Moderate confidence.
Thursday and Friday...VFR most of the time, however some mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorm each day can
result in local restrictions. West-northwest winds around 10
knots Thursday becoming light and variable at night, then south-
southwest near 10 knots Friday. Low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly flow will result in building seas this afternoon into
tonight, with waves rising to around 5 ft at times. Thus, have
issued SCA for tonight for all ocean waters, though waves may
touch 5 ft late this afternoon. Winds mostly 15-20 kts though a
few gusts to 25 kts possible outside storms. Otherwise, strong
thunderstorm potential will be biggest marine concern, with
timing on the waters late afternoon on the bay and evening on
the ocean.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible mainly on
the ocean zones.
Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory possible on the ocean zones
due to lingering seas near 5 feet.
Thursday and Friday...The conditions are anticipated to be
mainly below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Rip Currents...
For today through Tuesday, there is a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents at the New Jersey and
Delaware beaches. We are anticipating a southerly wind of 10-15
mph with breaking waves in the surf zone of 2-3 feet. The
medium period southeasterly swell will likely continue.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
for PAZ054-055-060>062-101>103-105.
NJ...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
for NJZ001-007>009.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ450>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Gorse
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/RCM
MARINE...Gorse/Iovino/RCM