Wildfire in Arizona, June 27 to 28, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
822 AM MST Tue Jun 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Above average heat will continue through the weekend.
A modest moisture increase will bring a few thunderstorms mainly
near the international border this week. Winds will be breezy
each afternoon as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another morning with precipitable water near 3/4 of
an inch on the 12Z KTWC sounding. Still dry in the lower levels
beginning with surface dewpoints in the 30s. Steady as she goes
with the excessive heat and critical fire weather concerns today.
Still expecting convection to creep closer today and watching for
potential strong outflows pushing a temporary shot of deeper
moisture into Cochise County from the south and southeast during
late afternoon and early evening hours. A broader but still
relatively shallow moisture increase is likely overnight and could
set the table for a busier time in the far southeast corner of
the state tomorrow afternoon (with Cochise County being the
focus).

Please see the previous discussion below for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 28/12Z.
SKC at KTUS and KOLS. KDUG will see SCT-BKN clouds AOA 12k ft AGL
through the valid period. Slight chance of -TSRA/-SHRA near KDUG
late this afternoon and evening. Sfc winds will be less than 10
kts variable in direction this morning becoming west/southwest
10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. In the vicinity of KDUG winds
could shift to the south/southeast during the evening as outflow
from storms in Mexico moves through. Overnight winds become
variable less than 10 kts again. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be above normal through the
work week with the hottest day expected to be today, which will
be 6-10 degrees above normal. Min RH values will be in the 4-10
percent range in the lower elevations and between 10-18 percent in
the mountains through much of this week, with a few percent
increase in RH values along the international border on Wednesday
and Thursday. There will be a slight chance (10-20 percent) of
mainly dry thunderstorms across eastern Santa Cruz County and
Cochise County each afternoon/early evening through the upcoming
weekend.

20-foot wind speeds will continue to remain elevated through
Wednesday at 10-20 mph at most locations during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Stronger winds at 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40
mph are expected across northern Graham/Greenlee counties today.
Because of this a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 am to 8
pm MST for northern portions of Fire Weather Zone 152 and all of
Fire Weather Zone 153. Near critical conditions are again expected
for this area on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Much above normal temperatures will continue
today although likely a couple degree cooler than yesterday as the
center of the high moves a little eastward. Temps will still be
hot enough to continue the Excessive Heat Warning which is in
effect from Tucson eastward through the evening. Temperatures cool
another couple of degrees Wednesday onward as the high moves into
Texas and troughing sets up to the west and north. Highs however
will still be 4-6 degrees above normal. Thanks to the trough winds
will be breezy each afternoon leading to elevated fire weather
conditions. Winds will be strongest today in Graham and Greenlee
Counties where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. See the fire
weather discussion for more details.

To the south moisture has started to creep into northern Mexico.
GOES East Total Precipitable Water shows PWAT values of 1.5
inches in southern Sonora and up to 1 inch near the international
border in Cochise County. This will lead to a slight chance for
mainly dry thunderstorms in southern Cochise County each afternoon
this work week. The main threats will be gusty outflow winds and
lightning. Hi-res guidance keeps most of the activity in Sonora
and Chihuahua but outflows from those storms could set off
isolated storms in Cochise County.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ503-
504-506>509.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ152-153.

&&

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