A strong area of high pressure brought very warm temperatures to much of the Interior on July 24th. A weak disturbance moved along the south side of the area of high pressure resulting in scattered thunderstorms forming over the Interior.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.
A strong area of high pressure brought very warm temperatures to much of the Interior on July 24th. A weak disturbance moved along the south side of the area of high pressure resulting in scattered thunderstorms forming over the Interior. Some of these storms brought strong winds and large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 12:55 PM AKST, 6 hours 1 minute earlier.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
155 PM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather continues over the next few days for the Eastern,
Central and Western Interior. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm activity
decreases tomorrow, but still a few strong storms are possible in
the Central and Eastern Interior. Well above average and near
record temperatures are expected to persist through at least
Thursday. We are also observing smoke in the region through
tomorrow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Upper high remains centered over the Central and Eastern Interior
into Yukon. Low pressure areas aloft in the Bering Sea and over
the Northwestern Territories will squeeze the high over the
Interior. However, the low pressure area to the west will slowly
push the ridge to the east over the next few days. At the surface,
weak surface troughing persist across the Interior and combined
with a weak shortwave riding north along the western portions of
the upper level ridge will help initiate storms this afternoon
and evening as well as tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Model Discussion...
The 12Z run of models today starts with very good agreement
with observations and between models. There are just minor
differences in the short term, but nothing significant. Model
spread begins in the long term with a more progressive GFS on
Friday. There are also disagreements with the strength of the
upper low in Siberia during the weekend. The ECMWF and Canadian
continue to have better agreement with each other through early
next week.
Central and Eastern Interior...
The main story for the Central and Eastern Interior will be heat
and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs continue to be hot with
temperatures ranging from the mid-80s to the lower 90s. We should
still be able to get a few 90s through tomorrow, but then
probabilities of 90 degree weather drop out by Thursday. It will
still be warm with most of the lowlands in the upper 70s and 80s
towards the end of the work week. Smoke continues to invade the
region from Canada, but the HRRR indicates that near surface smoke
should be leaving the area on Tuesday evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected across portions of the area. There is
plenty of instability as observed with the CAPE and Lifted index
values, but shear is very lack-luster as we remain under the
ridge. Isolated storms may be able to become strong to severe, but
they may not last long due to the subsidence aloft. The main
hazard with any storm continues to be frequent lightning, gusty
and erratic winds, hail and periods of heavy rain. Thunderstorm
activity tomorrow will be less active, and even less active by
Wednesday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
Meridional flow continues over the West Coast bringing periods of
rain over the next few days as the upper low over the Bering Sea
approaches the region. The Western Interior will see isolated to
scattered storms through tomorrow, especially in the eastern
portions of the region. Storms become isolated on Wednesday, but
periods of rain will be possible through the end of the work week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Near record warm temperatures continue over the next few days in
the North Slope as the upper high remains in the vicinity
extending into the Arctic Coast. Temperatures will be in the 70s
with locations near the Brooks Range reaching the lower 80s.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in across most of
the area. Cooler weather is expected to return towards the end of
the work week. Areas of fog continue to be possible near the
coast during the morning hours.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Uncertainty continues in the extended forecast as models start to
diverge by weeks end with the Canadian and ECMWF having similar
solutions with shortwave troughs becoming a closed low and
descending into the Gulf of Alaska. Meanwhile, the GFS develops a
secondary low that slowly travels over Central AK. The EC and
Canadian have the upper ridge reestablished by Sunday near the
Arctic Coast. Therefore, warm temperatures would continue over the
Interior if this pans out, but the GFS indicates cooler
temperatures. Currently, supporting the EC/Canadian deterministic
combo and their ensemble means with the warmer temperatures.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered storms are the main concern in the near
term through Wednesday. These storms bring frequent lightning and
gusty and erratic winds. The lightning could result in multiple
new fire starts over zones 220, 221 and 223. There is a red flag
warning out for today to account for the risk of new fires in the
area due to lightning. A new Red Flag Warning was issued for
zones 220 and 221 (areas east of Tanana) for the same reasons on
Tuesday. Although storm activity is expected to be weaker. We are
still expecting storms in the Interior through the rest of the
week, but coverage and strength will be less. As the upper high
slowly tracks east, we get more moisture from the west lowering
the fire weather risk. Winds will be relatively light through the
foreseeable future with a few exceptions. Winds around 10-15 mph
from the east are expected along the Yukon Flats on this evening.
Plus, westerly winds around 10-15 mph along the Tanana Valley on
Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
High flows continue over the Tanana River. Locally heavy rain due
to storms over the next few days could result in quick rises over
rivers and streams, especially for the Tanana River. Anomalously
high snow levels generally above 10-11 kft are expected over the
next two days. Glacial melt and melting of high elevation snow is
highly likely. Therefore, expect a rise of rivers and streams
near the Alaska Range through the week. These high flows will
cause issues along low lying areas, plus there will be an increase
of debris along rivers and streams.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ220-221-223.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ220-221.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-860-861.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
&&Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 259 PM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2023 AKZ220>222-250500- Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior- Middle Tanana Valley- Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp 259 PM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2023 ...Strong Thunderstorms Possible Through Late This Evening... Strong thunderstorms with frequent lightning, hail, gusty downdraft winds, and heavy downpours will be possible through late this evening. Storms have already initiated over the White Mountains and Ray Mountains and over the higher terrain north of Fairbanks this afternoon. Some storms may move into the more populated areas in and around Fairbanks later this evening, as well. Stay tuned by accessing local radar data. Outdoor recreators should keep an eye to the sky.
The Fairbanks Faa radar (PAPD), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:58 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms moved near Eielson AFB on the evening of July 24th. These storms knocked down several trees and caused widespread power outages in the Eielson and Salcha areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1127148.