Strong Wind in Alabama, August 29, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
912 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 911 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

No major changes were made to the forecast this morning as today
presents very similar weather conditions as yesterday. Currently
most of the area is under overcast skies with some pockets of
clearing. Daytime heating will help to dissipate much of the
heavy cloud deck with clear conditions already progressing from
the west. If full morning clearing is accomplished in any area,
this could give way to the development of cumulus fields
midday/afternoon. Likewise, clearing with provide more energy for
showers and storms to fire up later in the day. Inherited PoP's
were maintained with the greatest coverage still being east of
I-65. Heavy rainfall still remains the main concern for any
convection this afternoon as PWATs above 1.5 inches are still in
place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Showers and storms should come to an end shortly after sunset with
the loss of daytime heating. A slow drying trend will continue
through the mid-week period as Idalia tracks northeast through
northern FL and southern GA, and high pressure pushes south into
the area. Low (10-30%) chances for rain and thunder will be
present over far northeast AL Wednesday afternoon, but a dry
forecast will follow through the remainder of the short term
period. High pressure will also help keep temperatures below
seasonal norms, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Enjoy the cooler weather
while it lasts!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Current extended range guidance suggests that the TN Valley will be
located beneath the northern edge of an elongated mid/upper-level
trough on Friday, which should extend from the western Gulf of Mexico
northeastward into the central Gulf Coast. At the surface, a subtle
trough and moisture convergence axis related to this feature is
predicted to lift west-northwestward across the region as a ridge of
high pressure begins to build southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic
region, and this feature may initiate a few showers or thunderstorms
that should spread westward with time before ending in our
southwestern zones around or shortly after sunset. Highs on Friday
will be in the m-u 80s, with lows on Saturday morning in the m-u 60s
(perhaps a few degrees cooler in the east).

Beginning Saturday, a strengthening mid/upper-level ridge is
predicted to build east-northeastward across the southern Plains,
before nosing southeastward into the TN Valley on Saturday night.
This evolution will force the trough to retrograde westward and away
from the local area. Due to both an increasing influence from the
ridge aloft and advection of slightly drier low-level air into the
region from the east, we expect dry conditions to prevail for the
remainder of the extended period. Although mostly sunny skies will
send afternoon temps back into the u80s-l90s, heat indices should
only reach the 90-95F range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

MVFR conditions will persist through most of the day at HSV, with
conditions at MSL improving by the afternoon. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms could impact the HSV terminal later this morning
through the afternoon hours, and have added a PROB30 group to
account for this during the late afternoon hours. Reductions to
IFR/LIFR conditions are possible during heavier showers.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...25