Marginal strong wind event impacted WYZ110 around Arlington Wyoming on 14-15 March 2022.
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The episode as NWS CYS wrote it up.
Marginal strong wind event impacted WYZ110 around Arlington Wyoming on 14-15 March 2022.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cheyenne, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 4:34 AM MST, 4 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 534 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today - Thursday) Issued at 217 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 High winds are the primary concern in the near term, mainly across the southeast Wyoming wind corridors. H85 CAG-CPR gradients should peak around 75 meters early this AM before gradually lowering into the lower 50s by 00z this evening. This may provide enough support for a few gusts up to 65 MPH for Arlington, but very modest 700 mb flow less than 40 knots coupled with peak H7 gradients only in the 40s makes this a rather low-confidence scenario. Even so, in-house probabilistic guidance does suggest at least a low-end risk of 60+ MPH gusts through 06z Wed at ARL. Parameter space is very marginal for Bordeaux as well w/ an MSLP gradient of only 2-3 hpa along the spine of the Laramie Range, but potential for mountain waves later this afternoon and evening with a decent mountain top inversion as well as a strong omega couplet should support a period of stronger winds a bit later in the period. Certainly possible for high winds to spread into eastern Platte County as well, so have gone ahead & added that zone to the High Wind Warning valid until 06z. Do think there is a chance these headlines could need to be extended just a bit deeper into the night, but overall would expect winds to be on the down-trend by Midnight tonight. Otherwise, a seasonably mild day for much of southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle especially for areas along and east of the Laramie Range w/ good downslope warming expected. Highs are expected to be well into the 60s to near 70 F. This is expected to change quite abruptly on Wednesday, but especially Thursday w/ the next cold frontal passage as H7 temperatures plunge to around -10C by 12z Thursday. These arctic frontal passages have become all too familiar over the last several weeks, so anticipate another decent snowfall event for much of the area with decent over-running along w/ excellent low-level frontogenesis & a strong H5 jet approaching 50 knots over central Wyoming. NBM guidance suggests extremely low to almost nil PoPs where the pattern favors accumulating snow, and the general model suite strongly suggests widespread precipitation especially early on Thursday. Tossed out the NBM for this forecast package based on pattern recognition and increased PoPs by 30-50 % of what was projected. NBM also suggests highs in the 40s and even approaching the low 50s in some areas on Thursday. Given northerly low-level flow and a good likelihood of a persistent frontal snow- fall band, this seems unlikely after a night of lows dropping into the middle 20s for many. Highs Thursday were cut significantly for this reason, especially south of a line from Douglas to Torrington to Bridgeport. Snowfall amounts remain uncertain, but believe most areas will see measurable precipitation Wed night - Thu. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night - Monday) Issued at 217 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Friday...The flow aloft turns northwest with a slow warming trend as 700 mb temperatures rise to near -5 Celsius. This day looks dry with limited low and mid level moisture. Saturday...A transitory ridge aloft moves over Wyoming, producing a dry and mild day with maximum temperatures in the 40s west of I-25, and mid 50s to mid 60s east of I-25, with 700 mb temperatures near -2 Celsius. Sunday...The flow aloft backs quickly to south southwest as the next upper trough moves over the Great Basin states, helping a surface lee trough to develop over our counties, and producing an even more mild day with 700 mb temperatures near 3 Celsius, and maximum temperatures from 45 to 55 degrees west of I-25, with 60s east of Interstate 25. As low and mid level moisture increases, along with diffluence aloft, there will be a chance of afternoon rain and snow west of a Douglas to Laramie line. Monday...Still quite early, though the GFS forecasts an intense closed upper low slowly moving across Colorado, with deep, moist upslope and strong lift across our counties, producing widespread snow for most locations, with rain across our far eastern counties. Of course, this system will indeed bear close monitoring. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Wyoming TAFS...VFR. Low level wind shear at Laramie from 15Z to 01Z. Wind gusts to 35 knots at Rawlins and Laramie until 01Z, then gusts to 25 knots. Wind gusts to 30 knots at Cheyenne from 18Z to 01Z. Nebraska TAFS...VFR. Wind gusts to 28 knots from 18Z to 01Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 217 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible today w/ RHs near 15 percent along and east of the Laramie Range & wind gusts 25-30 MPH. However, overall fire concerns remain low as snow pack has only just recently melted. Minimal concerns from Wed onward as a cold front brings another chance for widespread rain & snow by Wednesday night and Thursday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for WYZ106-107-110. NE...None. && SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...CLH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 612 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 WYZ106-107-110-161215- Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County- East Platte County-North Snowy Range Foothills- 612 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT High Wind Warnings remain in effect for the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming with occasional gusts up to 65 MPH expected through at least Midnight MDT tonight. Travel remains hazardous, especially for light weight and high profile vehicles including campers and tractor trailers. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY Light snowfall accumulations will be possible across a large part of the area on Wednesday night and early Thursday. Minor travel impacts are possible. A storm system could potentially develop over the central Rockies early next week. It is much too early to determine any specific details regarding the storm track and its resulting impact to southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle, but some risk for accumulating snow and blowing snow could exist over portions of the area by Monday. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts over the next several days as details become better refined. .Spotter information statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>105-108-109-111>119- 161215- Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County- Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County- Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County- Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County- North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains- Shirley Basin-Goshen County-Central Carbon County- Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range- Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley- South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills- Central Laramie County-East Laramie County- 612 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY Light snowfall accumulations will be possible across a large part of the area on Wednesday night and early Thursday. Minor travel impacts are possible. A storm system could potentially develop over the central Rockies early next week. It is much too early to determine any specific details regarding the storm track and its resulting impact to southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle, but some risk for accumulating snow and blowing snow could exist over portions of the area by Monday. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts over the next several days as details become better refined. .Spotter information statement... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Arlington WYDOT site and Halleck Ridge WYDOT site reported wind gusts in excess of 58 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1003303.