Drought in Hawaii, March 15 to 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
802 PM HST Mon Mar 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will trend down overnight through midweek, and some
moisture moving in from the southeast could boost rainfall chances
for the Big Island and Maui on Tuesday and possibly across the
state on Wednesday. A dry trade wind pattern will return Thursday
through Saturday, with trades potentially becoming disrupted
Sunday as a front approaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement and shows the trades easing
overnight through midweek as a front passes to the north. The
low-level flow will respond and veer out of the southeast, which
will draw up a decent-size area of enhanced low-level moisture
lurking to the southeast - first over the Big Island and Maui
County Tuesday, then the western end of the state Tuesday night
through Wednesday. This area of moisture will translate to a
slight increase in rainfall chances over the southeast slopes of
those islands and across their leeward and interior sections each
afternoon where sea breezes form. Rainfall accumulations should
remain light due to a combination of mid-level dry air and an
upper ridge holding over the area. Over the rest of the state, a
hybrid trade wind/land and sea breeze pattern is expected with
modest rainfall favoring windward slopes at night and leeward
terrain in the afternoon.

A return to somewhat dry trade wind weather is due on Thursday as
the enhanced moisture clears the islands. The GFS and ECMWF are
showing a weak upper level trough passing overhead Thursday and
Friday. This feature should produce an increase in high clouds,
but no other impacts to local weather are expected at this time.

In the extended forecast, an approaching front will disrupt the
trade winds Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Weak surface ridging remains north of the area and will sustain
light to locally moderate east to southeast winds across the state
through Tuesday. There will also be sections of the island chain
that see nighttime land breezes and daytime sea breezes,
especially over the western half. Isolated to locally scattered
showers will mainly affect the Big Island and Maui beginning
Tuesday as an area of moisture moves in from the southeast,
though most locales will remain VFR.

There are no AIRMETs in effect, and none expected through
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will remain north of the state over the
next few days and will lead to moderate trade winds. As the ridge
shifts further north during the second half of the week, we could
see fresh to locally strong trade winds.

The current northwest swell has dropped below advisory thresholds
and will continue to gradually decline and veer toward the north-
northwest over the next few days. A series of smaller northwest
swells are expected Thursday through Saturday with surf peaking
below High Surf Advisory thresholds. A large northwest swell is
possible around next week Tuesday.

South facing shores are forecast to have small, background swells
through the week. A small south swell is possible towards the
middle of next week (23rd). East facing shores will have small,
choppy surf through the week due to the general weakness of the
trades upwind from the state.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Kinel
MARINE...Kino