High Wind in Montana, March 15, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1155 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022

Aviation Section Updated

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures and winds will increase further across the area on
Tuesday with strong winds likely along the Rocky Mountain Front. A
Pacific cold front will move across the region Tuesday night,
bringing some showers and cooler temperatures through Wednesday
before a warming trend redevelops late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
The evening update has been published. Gusty winds have largely
diminished this evening on the plains. In Southwest Montana, gusty
winds are persisting, and are expected to continue overnight, in
N-S oriented valleys. Gusty winds on the plains will re-develop
tomorrow, with the strongest sustained winds and gusts confined to
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. The forecast is in
good shape overall, with minimal changes necessary. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
1155 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 (15/06Z TAF period)

VFR conditions will begin the period, but slowly give way to IFR
conditions over the western mountains and parts of Southwest MT as
clouds increase/lower. Precipitation will also develop Tue morning
along the divide and over Southwest MT and then continue into
Tuesday evening. Strong winds will develop over the Plains of North
Central MT on Tue morning, and then continue into early Tue evening.
Mountains/passes will be obscured at times through the period. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022/

Upper level ridging extending north into the Northern Rockies and MT
will flatten tonight as an upper level trough moves onshore and
across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Gusty winds across
the plains, thanks to a lee-side trough of low low pressure at
the surface extending south from AB, will diminish slightly
overnight before increasing further on Tuesday as winds aloft
increase ahead of the approaching upper trough. A fairly strong
pressure gradient will also develop later today through Tuesday
between surface high pressure over the Yellowstone Plateau and the
lee-side trough, driving locally stronger southerly winds up the
Madison river Valley and over Norris Hill.

No change to the High Wind warning for NW portions of North-central
MT as latest statistical model guidance continues to support the
best chance for wind gusts in excess of 50kts limited to areas along
Rocky Mtn Front on Tuesday, extending east across eastern Glacier
and Pondera counties Tuesday afternoon into the early evening with
the passage of a surface Pacific cold front. There is a small chance
for localized higher winds over Norris Hill in Madison county on
Tuesday as well as over areas near Little Belts/Highwoods Tuesday
afternoon and the Bears Paw Tuesday night.

Precipitation with this system is mainly along or west of the
Divide in NW MT tonight through early Tuesday afternoon but some
showers are likely to accompany and follow the Pacific front
across SW MT late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Snow levels are
sufficiently high enough to limit any winter weather impacts with
the initial precipitation over the northwest mountains, though
higher elevations in Glacier National Park will see several
inches of snow. Snow levels lower behind the front Tuesday
evening/night, which could bring a change to snow over mountain
passes with brief showers moving across the continental divide and
SW MT.

Area remains under cooler cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft on
Wednesday as the upper level trough shifts across the area with
daytime temps in the 40s for most areas, which is about 10-15
degrees cooler than Tuesday, but still close to seasonal averages
for mid March. Cool air aloft and terrain heating/instability,
along with some weak embedded shortwave disturbances could
produce a few showers on Wednesday as well, though coverage looks
limited.

Looking ahead, a drier period with temperatures warming back
above seasonal averages is expected Thursday through Saturday as
upper level ridging rebuilds across the region. A weak shortwave
disturbance passing over the ridge could bring a period of clouds
and increased winds on Friday. Another splitting upper level
trough looks to move into the western US late this weekend into
early next week, for cooler temperatures and some chance for
precipitation. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  59  31  47 /  10  10   0  10
CTB  35  52  31  43 /  10  10   0  10
HLN  35  55  33  47 /   0  40  30  10
BZN  27  51  25  43 /   0  30  70  20
WYS  16  40  17  37 /  10  80  80  40
DLN  29  53  26  42 /   0  40  50  10
HVR  34  58  32  46 /  20  10   0  20
LWT  31  54  29  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls