High Wind in Wyoming, January 23, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1025 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

Forecast concerns deal with strong winds at Arlington and Bordeaux
today into tonight.

Currently...Cold front across northern Nebraska...to just east of
Chadron...northwestward into eastern Montana this morning. A
fairly strong surface gradients resides across southeast Wyoming
this morning between this front and a 1036mb surface high over
northwestern Colorado. Wind gusts to 45 mph have been observed at
Bordeaux with a Craig to Casper gradient of 53/21mtrs.

Craig to Casper 850/700mb height gradients continue to increase
through the day today...increasing to 61/40mtrs by 21Z and
75/48mtrs by 03Z this evening. 700mb winds on GFS up to 40-45kts.
With increasing gradients...decided to issue a High Wind Warning
for WYZ106 and 110 for this afternoon and evening. Day shift will
need to monitor the Summit 116 and 117 for possible inclusion for
a brief time from 06Z to 12Z Monday as GFS 750 winds up near
45-50kts during that time.

Clipper system still on track for Monday night into Tuesday.
GFS...NAM and ECMWF all in good agreement with fairly widespread
snow as this system moves through the CWA. Right now...not looking
at much more than a couple inches of snow...but NAM has come in
line with the GFS to where we may need a few advisories for 3+
inches of snow at lower elevations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 230 AM MST Sun
Jan 23 2022

Wednesday will have a departing shortwave disturbance sagging to
the south via a positively tilted trough. CAA will occur throughout
the day as subsidence takes over the forecast area, and surface
high pressure moves in briefly. As this disturbance sags across
the southern plains, a strong surface low over the Northern Plains
into the Canadian Provinces will trek to the east resulting in a
tight surface pressure gradient across the forecast region. This
will likely result in gusty winds over the wind prone corridor of
Interstate 25/80. Surface pressure changes over 6 hours per the
GFS will range from 3-8mb between Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Downward momentum transport from mountain waves breaking aloft
throughout the day will cause gusty winds at times. Temperatures
will hover near the freezing mark for a high west of the Laramie
Range, and in the 30s to 40s east of the Laramie Range into the
high plains of Nebraska as a result of the gusty winds. The base
of the shortwave trough axis will swing through the Northern
Rockies and Northern Plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
This will bring in strong winds aloft at the 700mb level of 50-60
knots via northwest flow. The northwest to southeast orientation
of the mid-level flow is modeled to be strongest over our northern
forecast zones and the NE Panhandle through Thursday morning.
Model guidance differs slightly on whether upper level dynamics
will support precipitation across our cwa. The Canadian model is
the most aggressive with precipitation occurring across the higher
terrain via the northwest flow aloft and possible orographic
enhancement. The EC and GFS have a much more dry output, with
precipitation remaining outside of the cwa for the most part. Went
with a similar high temperature for Thursday in comparison to
Wednesday due to the daytime maximum temperatures potentially
happening after the midnight hour of early Thursday morning due to
the gusty winds keeping temperatures elevated. Strong CAA behind
the shortwave departing on Thursday will result in colder surface
temperatures. 700mb temperatures will potentially adiabatically
cool to values of -10C to -17C by mid-Thursday. Clearing skies may
result in elevated surface temperatures due to the insolation by
Thursday afternoon.

As modeled in previous iterations, the pronounced upper level
ridge axis that will be elongated across the entire west coast
will begin to shift to the east by Thursday night. The upper level
ridge axis will be over the Intermountain West by Friday. This
will bring warmer temperatures to the area as WAA occurs via west
to southwest winds. Areas in the Panhandle may eclipse the 50
degree mark on Friday. Another shortwave disturbance further to
our north will trek to the east and southeast Friday evening
through early Saturday. Model guidance continues to show another
possible mountain wave signature across the Intermountain West as
this occurs. The potential for strong winds across the wind prone
corridors will be present as the upper level flow continues to
evolve.

The ridge axis will continue to propagate to the east by Saturday,
allowing for the forecast region to experience slightly above
average temperatures. Surface highs for Saturday have the
potential to eclipse 50 degrees for most areas east of the Laramie
Range if trends in model guidance continue. The biggest difference
compared to model runs 24 hours ago is that the mid-level flow
looks to have the ridge break down temporarily from Saturday into
Sunday. A shortwave is modeled to propagate from the Pacific
Northwest to the southeast towards the Southern Plains from
Saturday into Sunday. This will cause the ridge to break down and
have the jet stream begin to trend towards a more zonal flow
pattern. This would allow for weather systems to return to a more
east to west pattern. Expect that surface temperatures may briefly
return to seasonal averages by next Sunday if trends in guidance
continue. Overall, low amounts of moisture can be expected with
each weather disturbance that moves through the forecast area and
slightly above average temperatures will be the trend for the
extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday morning)
Issued at 1025 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

Prevailing VFR. Mid-level deck (BKN-OVC100) will affect much of the
Nebraska Panhandle through late afternoon/early evening before
lifting/scattering. Elsewhere, SCT200-250 will prevail. It will be
breezy at most terminals for the majority of the TAF period. Gusts
of 20-30 kt will be common. Periods of LLWS will re-occur off the
deck to 2000 feet from the W-NW 30-40 kt. Pockets of moderate
turbulence will be possible in the vicinity of the higher terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

Windy to strong winds today across southeast Wyoming with breezy
winds across the Nebraska Panhandle. Afternoon humidity today
stays well above critical levels in the low to mid 30 percent
range. Increasing snow chances Monday evening into Tuesday with
fairly widespread light snow that continues through Tuesday
afternoon. Fire weather concerns minimal through the middle of
next week before another high wind event takes place Wednesday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST Monday
     for WYZ106-110.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
910 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

WYZ101>105-107>109-111>119-241200-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-East Platte County-Goshen County-
Central Carbon County-Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
910 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Wyoming...south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Snow returns to the forecast Monday night into Tuesday. Light
accumulations are expected.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-241200-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
910 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for western portions of
the Panhandle Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Snow returns to the forecast Monday night into Tuesday. Light
accumulations are expected.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

WYZ106-110-241200-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-
910 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

High Wind Warnings are in effect for Arlington on Interstate 80 and
Bordeaux on Interstate 25 from 2 PM this afternoon through 5 AM
Monday. Wind gusts to 65 mph are expected, leading to a critical
blow off or blowover risk for light weight and high profile vehicles.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Snow returns to the forecast Monday night into Tuesday. Light
accumulations are expected.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.