A far reaching winter storm brings high winds to the Anchorage area with snow and blowing snow for the Kuskokwim Delta.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A far reaching winter storm brings high winds to the Anchorage area with snow and blowing snow for the Kuskokwim Delta.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 23, 5:44 AM AKST, 16 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
544 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A high amplitude pattern remains in place with a longwave trough
over the Bering and Western Alaska and a strong blocking ridge
over the Eastern Pacific/Western U.S. coast. A weak shortwave
trough lifting across Southcentral is producing a band of light
precipitation moving north across the Kenai Peninsula, Cook Inlet,
and the Susitna Valley this morning. Colder air wrapping in
behind the system overnight combined with a lack of chinook winds
allowed temperatures to cool back to near freezing around most of
the Cook Inlet region. With high clouds clearing out on the back
side of the upper-level shortwave and abundant near-surface
moisture sourced from recently melted snow, a brief bout of fog
developed overnight in the Anchorage Bowl and along Knik Arm, as
well as in portions of the Susitna Valley. Winds, however, have
made a return and the resultant mixing is dissipating the fog and
raising temperatures into the 40s across parts of the Anchorage
Bowl.
Right on the heels of the exiting wave is a warm front ahead of a
deep low from the North Pacific pushing into Southern Alaska,
bringing snow showers to Bristol Bay this morning. Snow has turned
to rain in Sand Point with the arrival of the warm conveyer belt on
the southern coast of the Alaska Peninsula. Across the Bering,
with the exception of the eastern Aleutians, conditions are very quiet
with only isolated snow showers.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
There is good agreement among model guidance regarding the
evolution of large-scale features over the next few days. There
continue to be minor differences with low track across the
Kuskokwim Delta on Monday, which will affect details of the wind
and precipitation forecast across Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska. Of particular note is the GFS continuing to be a high-end
outlier with gap winds across Southwest Alaska. Additionally,
despite the synoptic- scale agreement, a lot of forecast
challenges remain related to the details of the chinook winds in
Southcentral.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Persistent low-level southeasterly flow across the Kenai
and Chugach Mountains will maintain VFR ceilings at the terminal.
There could be some brief periods where the ceiling lowers below
5000 feet as upper waves and light rain move through, but this
would be brief in nature.
The wind forecast is complex. Southeasterly winds will come in
and out of the terminal based on pressure gradients in Cook Inlet
and the Susitna Valley. A large low pressure system moving up from
the Pacific is likely to induce a down-inlet pressure gradient
beginning later this morning which should cause the Turnagain jet
to bend southward out of the terminal. With a frontal passage in
the evening, gusty southeasterlies are expected to make a return.
However, with the down-inlet pressure gradient expected to remain
in place, the timing of this return and how persistent
it will be through the evening and into the overnight hours is
uncertain.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
There was not much break in between systems as the warm southerly
flow aloft and at the surface has kept the temperatures around
southcentral downright balmy (at least for January) overnight in
many areas. This next system moving in from the south will keep
temperatures elevated well above normal for the next two days
before colder air starts to move in from the west Monday night
into Tuesday.
The low at the heart of the next system will remain west of
Southcentral taking a track through Bristol Bay into Southwest
Alaska. This keeps Southcentral in the warm sector of the system
through Monday as a seres of fronts push through the area from
south to north. The first front should move over Kodiak this
morning and then to the north Gulf coast this afternoon and
evening. The coast will see rain with this front but little
precipitation will make it to the lee sides of the mountains. The
much stronger front will make it to Kodiak this evening and then
through Cook Inlet overnight.
While the typical south and southeast gap winds from Turnagain
Arm to the Copper River will persist through the day, they will
increase overnight in response to the approaching front. The
strongest winds are expected to be after midnight tonight through
Monday morning in Turnagain Arm and along the Anchorage Hillside,
where some wind gusts to 75 mph are possible. The Anchorage Bowl
itself will see some periods of gusty southeasterly winds through
Monday morning, but in town winds will not be nearly as strong as
for Turnagain Arm or the Hillside. The strongest Turnagain Arm and
Hillside winds will occur in advance of the frontal passage,
which will coincide with the Turnagain Arm winds bending down the
Inlet and away from Anchorage. After the front passes through, the
southeast winds will then move into Anchorage, but will not be as
strong as they were pre-frontal.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The King Salmon radar has detected the leading edge of the
precipitation shield from the next North Pacific low early this
morning. With the new Pacific low, Southwest Alaska will get a mix
of precipitation including rain, freezing rain, and snow. On
satellite imagery, there is plume of tropical moisture that
extends back to the Philippines associated with the aforementioned
low. With a strong ridge over the east Pacific and the
Alaska/Canada border, this moisture will move north-
northeastward for the next 48 hrs. Expect another wintry mix from
this system.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The longwave pattern features a broad trough over the Bering and
the North Pacific, with a ridge axis over the East Pacific
extending northward towards the Alaska/Canada border. There is a
closed low near the Bering Strait and a deep low south of the
Alaska Peninsula that will trek north-northeast. The system moving
from the North Pacific will bring a batch of unsettled weather to
the eastern Aleutians and Bristol Bay. Gales will materialize
with this mature low. The leading edge of the ice shield is less
than 100 nm north and east of St Paul Island. Freezing spray will
be possible for portions of the Bering this forecast period.
&&
.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Tuesday through Thursday)...
Gulf of Alaska...Brief gales associated with a trough are
expected south of Kenai Peninsula, bringing seas of 12 to 15 ft
Tue morning through Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, a strong frontal
system from a North Pacific low tracks northward, causing widespread
gales and the potential for storm force gusts into Thu morning.
This latter system will also generate strong southerly swells of
more than 18 ft as both the low and front advances through the
northern Gulf. Essentially, seas will continue to build Thu night
especially along the north Gulf Coast. Forecast confidence is
moderate.
Aleutians / Bering...Two separate North Pacific lows and their
associated fronts will bring widespread gales and the potential
for storm force gusts, and seas of more than 20 ft between Tue and
Thu night. The first low will sweep gales and potentially storm
force gusts across the Western Aleutians/Bering starting Tue
morning. Should this system stay on track, mostly elevated
weather will remain west of Pribilof Islands and Central
Aleutians through Thu morning. The second North Pacific low could
reach the Western Aleutians/southern Bering either Thu evening or
Fri morning, and it will be a repeat of the first low bringing
another round of widespread gales and potentially storm force
gusts mainly across the Western Aleutians/Bering. Forecast
confidence is moderate.
Over the southwestern Gulf, GFS is the only solution indicating
stronger gap winds for the Eastern Aleutians and south of the
Alaska Peninsula in connection with a separate North Pacific low
starting Wed night. For now, will monitor this situation and
provide updates on the next forecast package.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...
Multiple amplified North Pacific lows combined with an Arctic upper
trough will bring active weather across Southcentral and
Southwest the next several days. Over Southcentral, upper ridging
transits from the Gulf through Southcentral between Wed and Thu,
leading to increased low clouds/stratus overnight into early
morning hours, and from cooler to warmer temperatures as the ridge
shifts eastward. Meanwhile, tropical moisture combined with
series of upper-level short-waves from the Gulf could draw
increased precipitation over much of Prince William Sound through
the Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island beginning Wed night through
Sat afternoon.
Over Southwest, an Arctic trough extends southward through the
coast on Wed, followed by a separate wave from the Bering leading
to the merging of these two separate features by Thu morning.
This situation could produce increased snowfall as cold air
advection fills Southwest AK into the weekend. Over the Bering, a
robust ridge over the Bering will enhance a broad area of low
clouds/stratus for the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands into Sat
night.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 101.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 130-132 136-139 141
150 155 160 170 172 174 180
351 352.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 160 185.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CQ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...CBSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK 434 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022 AKZ152-155-161-240145- Lower Kuskokwim Valley-Kuskokwim Delta-Bristol Bay- Including the cities of Aniak, Sleetmute, Bethel, Hooper Bay, Nunivak Island, King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, and Pilot Point 434 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND POTENTIAL MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND MONDAY... An active pattern will continue over the Southwest as another strong pressure system moves north into the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay later today into Monday. A mix of rain, snow and potentially a short period of freezing rain and sleet will progress north as the low moves inland through Monday afternoon, with the highest potential for higher snowfall amounts of 3 to 8 inches focused near the Kuskokwim Mountains and Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Snow may mix with or fully change to rain farther east over much of Bristol Bay and the Middle Kuskokwim Valley, limiting snowfall totals. The threat for significant freezing rain within the transition zone is low, with little to no ice accumulation expected. However, there is remaining uncertainty for where this transition will develop and how quickly temperatures will warm through Monday morning.
1 high wind, 1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
One of AWOS stations on the Anchorage Hillside reported a wind speed out of the southeast of 43 knots with a gust up to 71 knots or 82 mph at approximately 4:22 am on the 24th of January.
Toksook Bay reported one quarter mile visibility, heavy snow and freezing fog at approximately 7:04am on the 24th. Winds were also sustained out of the west-northwest at 26 knots with gusts of 33 knots. Peak winds of 38 knots was also reported. Public out across the Kuskokwim Delta and in Toksook Bay said very bad conditions wind blown snow, very low visibilities as low as 50 ft, 2-4ft drifts, low ceiling, winds subsiding at time of the call. Also mentioned hard to see how much snow has fallen due to the blowing and drifting. Also called the police department in Bethel and they reported really wet snow especially 6:30-8AM this morning along with freezing and glazing on the highway. Also called Hooper Bay police department and they reported blowing snow with approx 2-3 of snow with clearing skies occurring at the time of the call.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1018128, 1018129.