Abundant monsoon moisture remained over the Four Corners region. This led to another round of showers and thunderstorms across southeast Utah.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Abundant monsoon moisture remained over the Four Corners region. This led to another round of showers and thunderstorms across southeast Utah. Storms were slow moving and produced heavy rain. Another debris flow occurred on the Pack Creek Fire burn scar as a result of a large amount of heavy rain in a short period of time.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 2:05 PM MST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 305 PM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Convection has kicked off across the higher terrain earlier this afternoon, as expected. The most robust storms have fired off the higher terrain of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, with some flood products already in effect. Convection has also fired along the Book Cliffs and into the Central Mountains, but with somewhat drier air in place combined with some subsidence behind a shortwave trough that passed through earlier this morning, coverage and intensity are less. This activity will continue through the afternoon and evening, with the activity across the south having the potential to linger through the night. All showers and storms have the potential to drop heavy rain and lead to flooding threat. Looking at the bigger picture, the shortwave trough will continue to move east across the Great Lakes. At the same time, the high pressure center that has been lingering over the Great Basin will shift to the east as well and merge with the larger area of high pressure that has been sitting over the Gulf Coast states. This move will shift the plume of deep moisture over northeast Utah and northwest Colorado by Monday afternoon and dry things out a bit across the Four Corners. Ensemble guidance for PWATs have values of 150-200% of normal along and north of I-70 for Monday and Tuesday, with values of 100-130% south of I-70. In addition to the reversal of where the best moisture pool is for the next few days, an easterly wave is expected to ride the flow around the high and move across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado Monday afternoon. This extra forcing will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the north, increasing the flooding threat. Will have to keep a close eye on burn scars across this area. Temperatures will remain generally near normal. Overnight lows will be more mild in areas where convection and cloud cover linger through the night. Daytime highs will climb a few degrees above normal in areas that see morning clearing. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 The long term starts out with a downturn in precip for southern portions of the CWA. High pressure will be centered just south of the Four Corners region as a shortwave moves across northern portions of the CWA. PWATs will be highest north of the San Juans during this timeframe and the EC is picking up on this and wants to bring some showers and storms where that moisture is highest. The GFS keeps the CWA almost entirely dry which seems a bit hard to believe due to lift from the wave moving through. Look for some showers/storms to form over the higher terrain...generally north of the San Juans. The area of high pressure doesn't move much Wednesday and with northerly flow aloft along with subsidence from the high pressure, a downtick in precip looks a safe bet...maybe a few showers/storms will fire along the Divide but convection shouldn't be too widespread. Heading into Thursday, a long wave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest and will force the high pressure eastward. By the weekend, models place this high over the southern Plains states which is the favorable spot for us. Favorable because flow around the high will pick up plenty of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico and stream it up into our area...yep, another monsoonal surge. Some discrepancies do pop up between the EC and GFS Sunday onwards but the general gist of afternoon and evening showers and storms with heavy rain is looking more likely. Of course, subtle changes in the location of this high can cause some fairly drastic changes in QPF so we'll need to keep an eye on things as we get towards the end of next week. So, Tuesday and Wednesday look for a downturn in precip coverage and amounts and then starting to ramp back up Thursday onwards. Again, this far out some changes are likely so keep an eye on the latest forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Convective cells are already forming this morning over the higher terrain and this trend will continue this afternoon with some cells moving into the valleys as the day progresses. Included VCTS/VCSH for most TAF sites with some storms possible on station. While best chances for convection affecting TAF sites stays down south, a shower or storm can't be ruled out elsewhere. VFR conditions will be predominant but there is a chance for MVFR due to moderate to heavy rainfall rates. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...BGB LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 404 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011015- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 404 AM MDT Sun Jul 31 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorm development will occur again today and persist into the late evening and possibly early morning hours. The best coverage will be over the San Juan mountains becoming more isolated toward the Wyoming border. Storm in southeast Utah and southwest Colorado will have the potential for rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour. This will continue to bring a threat for excess runoff and flooding issues...especially over burn scars and areas that already received heavy rainfall the past few days. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will threats in all areas today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Thunderstorm development will occur Monday through Saturday as monsoon mositure continues to circulate through the region. Better storm coverage will drift northward through the early week period while southern locations dry out some with high pressure directly overhead. Mositure returns to most areas by midweek with a threat of heavy rainfall impacting many areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1049 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1049 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.25N 107.09W
07/31/2022 M0.90 INCH ARCHULETA CO TRAINED SPOTTER
OVERNIGHT.
&&
TGRThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding and a debris flow consisting of mud and tree limbs occurred over the Pack Creek Fire burn scar as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1035762.