High Wind in Texas, March 17, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
609 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

.AVIATION...
Not a stellar flying day for light and small aircraft this
evening. Winds near 30-35 KT and BLDU will be the primary concern.
There is about a 30 pct chance of MVFR ceilings at PVW/CDS closer
to midnight local for a few hours. Thus far, the trajectory of
lower clouds looks to remain north of the area. Tops of the BLDU
layer have been reported around 8000MSL. LBB/PVW stand the
greatest risk of BLDU related visibility reductions. Much nicer
flying on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022/

SHORT TERM...
A potent storm system is bringing quite a range of weather impacts
to the region this afternoon, with a sharp upper level shortwave
trough currently analyzed over the Texas Panhandle as of 1830z. The
trough axis will continue to pull east-northeastward into Oklahoma
this evening before exiting the region on Friday. At the surface, a
low pressure center was analyzed just southeast of Childress at
1830z, with a relatively diffuse cold frontal boundary draped
roughly along a Childress-Floydada-Plains line as of 1830z. South of
this boundary, winds have remained out of the west through early
afternoon with dry downslope flow resulting in near-critical fire
weather conditions across the southern South Plains and much of the
Rolling Plains. The aforementioned surface low will begin to
accelerate eastward this afternoon as the upper wave ejects
northeast, with the front progressing southward through the entire
area by this evening. Surface winds will increase notably through
late afternoon in tandem with the tightening pressure gradient, and
a Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire area. A low chance
for a few light rain showers will continue through this evening
across the far southern TX Panhandle, with the track of the upper
low keeping the best forcing and moisture just to our north. In
tandem with these low shower chances, expect an increase in low
clouds this evening across the northern South/Rolling Plains and the
far southern TX Panhandle.

As the surface low continues to pull eastward into southern Oklahoma
tonight, winds will gradually begin to relax from west to east
overnight. Guidance is in good agreement that the surface pressure
gradient will remain tight enough to keep winds sustained near or
above 30 mph across the far southeastern TX Panhandle and the
Rolling Plains past sunset, and the Wind Advisory has been extended
until 1 AM for these areas. The Wind Advisory remains unchanged
elsewhere and will expire at 8 PM along and west of the Caprock.
Cooler air will begin pushing into the region this evening, with a
relatively chilly and breezy night expected as temperatures fall
into the 30s. Mostly clear skies and mild temperatures are expected
on Friday as upper level flow becomes northwesterly. Breezy
conditions are expected to persist, however, especially east of the
Caprock where elevated fire weather conditions may surface once
again with dry air and continued dry fuel states. Fire weather
concerns are expected to be more limited than today as winds weaken
on Friday afternoon. /DWK

LONG TERM...
The next storm system due to arrive very late Sunday into Monday
still looks interesting for the potential for rain/t-storms and
possibly fire weather.

But starting off, Saturday and Sunday look like mild days with highs
in the 60s and 70s Saturday, warming into the 70s to near 80 on
Sunday.  A very dry airmass will reside across the area on Saturday
and with a resumption of southwest breezes, we will likely see the
wildfire danger become elevated during the afternoon. Sunday, the
winds will increase further as we begin to see mass response across
the region downstream of a deep trough moving through the Great
Inter-mountain West and starting to dig into the Desert Southwest.
The stronger winds may increase the wildfire threat Sunday
afternoon, although there is some uncertainty due to increasing high-
level cloud cover and also we will begin to see some modest moisture
advection on the southerly flow.

As for the system to affect the forecast area in the late Sunday to
tuesday time frame, the medium-range guidance has continued to
bounce back and forth but the range of possibilities may be
narrowing. The closed low is expected to located somewhere from
southwest AZ to central NM by Monday morning. Regardless of its
actual position, it appears a jet streak rounding the upper low
could intercept some returning elevated moisture on the low-level
jet, resulting in shower & t-storm development somewhere across
the western and southwest portions of the region Sunday
night...with the details depending on the location of the upper
low and the timing of the jet streak. Whatever activity develops
should progress east across the forecast area Monday and again,
pending the track of the upper-low, the activity could be exiting
the area by Monday afternoon, or we could still be dealing with
scattered to numerous showers and t-storms, especially off the
Caprock. It is still too early to pin down the severe weather
threat/s, but at this time it looks like moisture return will be
too meager to support robust surface-based storms except across
the low Rolling Plains perhaps. However, there could be enough
elevated instability (and plenty of shear) for a hail threat
area-side. And, as previously discussed, there could be a window
for fire weather concerns across the Caprock Monday afternoon as
the dry slot works in from the southwest, particularly in the case
of a faster progression.

The forecast for Monday night into Tuesday still hedges on the
progression of the upper-low. In the slower/farther south solutions
(for example, 12Z ECMWF places the upper low near Childress at 7
am Tuesday), there's good potential that moisture wrapping around
the north and west side of the low will bring rain showers at
least to the north and northeast portions of the area through the
day Tuesday (and maybe some snow showers across Parmer and Castro
Counties). In any case, it looks like we'll see gusty northerly
winds Tuesday and cooler temperatures. Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mild and dry at this point.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ037-038-
042>044.

Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-
038-043-044.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>030-
033>036-039>042.

&&

99/99/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
243 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

TXZ021>044-180600-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
243 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A critical Fire Danger will persist across the southern and central
Rolling Plains through 8 pm this evening where a Red Flag Warning is
in effect. A Fire Danger statement will cover the South Plains into
the northern Rolling Plains also through 8 pm, where the fire danger
is considered to be elevated. A Wind Advisory also is in effect for
all areas through the afternoon for north winds 25 to 35 mph with
gusts to 45 mph. Visibilities from blowing dust may drop locally to
less than a mile. Strong north winds near are expected to continue
tonight across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and the Rolling
Plains and the Wind Advisory will not expire for those areas until
until 1 am Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Continued breezy northerly winds may result in elevated fire weather
concerns for locations east of the Caprock escarpment on Friday.

More mild, dry and breezy conditions may result in elevated to near-
critical fire weather concerns Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

A potent weather system will approach the area late Sunday.
Depending on how this system tracks, it could bring a chance of
thunderstorms to the area Sunday night and Monday, and also the
potential for fire weather conditions Monday.