High Wind and Winter Weather in Texas, January 1, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
346 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

.SHORT TERM...
A sharpening upper level trough continues to track southeast out of
the Intermountain West toward the Four Corners region as of 3 AM
this morning, while also absorbing the disturbance primarily
responsible for the rainfall seen across the region yesterday. A
significant and well advertised change in pattern is ongoing with
very cold temperatures advecting south with a strong cold front
currently pushing through the southern half of the Texas Panhandle,
approaching Amarillo at this hour, and an hour or two ahead of
schedule. With midnight high temperatures well behind us, we'll see
temperatures steadily fall throughout the day and night, eventually
dropping into the single digits in our northwest zones, and low to
mid teens for the rest of us by sunrise tomorrow.

Strong surface westerlies out ahead of the front, especially across
Cochran-Hockley-Yoakum and Terry County late this morning, will
approach but most likely remain below Wind Advisory levels. As the
front exits to the south of our CWA by early afternoon, winds will
become northerly between 15-25 MPH for much of today into the early
evening, then easing late tonight as the sharp, positively tilted
upper level trough shifts into north and central Texas.

Precipitation associated with the passing of the progressive trough
will be mostly light and scattered, starting off as all snow across
the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle by late this afternoon, with
more of a mix of rain and snow in the South Plains wherever there is
some light precipitation at that time. The strongest pressure
gradient forcing associated with the secondary shortwave behind the
cold front later this afternoon and evening, is progged to produce
up to several relatively weak snow bands as the trough axis pushes
through. Our northwest zones are looking at a potential of up to an
inch or two of snow by midnight tonight, with lesser amounts between
a trace to half an inch downstream across the southern South Plains
and Rolling Plains, including Lubbock. Once surface ridging quickly
builds in the wake of the trough to the east, surface winds will
begin to quickly ease and temperatures will begin to plummet toward
single digits and teens. Although winds will ease from the 15-20 MPH
levels seen much of the early evening, they will still be elevated
enough to produce wind chill values as low as -5 to -10 in some
spots across the southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains,
with a Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 9 PM tonight to 6 AM
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...
By Sunday morning the upper level trough will be moving east of the
forecast area as shortwave ridging quickly moves in. This will allow
surface winds to become westerly during the day and despite the
chilly start to Sunday temperatures will moderate into the low to
mid 40's by the afternoon. Quasi-zonal flow will continue through
early next week which will allow temperatures to continue to rebound
eventually peaking in the 60's and 70's Tuesday. Tuesday will also
have the potential for elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions as breezy to low-end windy conditions develop along with
low surface relative humidity values. Model guidance remains a bit
uncertain regarding the strength and timing of the next upper level
shortwave that will eventually become a full latitude trough across
the central and eastern CONUS. As this feature moves across the
Central Plains Tuesday night it will send a cold front into our
region on Wednesday. There is enough consensus among the ensemble
guidance to lean towards a cooler forecast for Wednesday assuming
that the front will move into the region early although this is
subject to change. Another piece of upper level energy will dive
southeastward across the Central Plains Wednesday night sending an
even stronger cold front into our region early Thursday morning.
This front appears to keep temperatures in the 30's during the
afternoon but again timing and strength differences are evident
among the various guidance so confidence remains low during this
period of the long term forecast. Both fronts will have very little
moisture to work with therefore the extended forecast looks to
remain dry at this time. Temperatures appear to moderate once again
towards the late week and into next weekend. /WCI

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday
for TXZ021>024-027>030.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
240 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

TXZ021>044-012045-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
240 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong cold front will pass through the area late Saturday morning,
leading to falling temperatures through the afternoon and breezy
northerly winds. The combination of the two will lead to very cold
wind chill values potentially as low as 5 degrees below zero across
the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains
by early Sunday morning.

Light snow is forecast to occur on Saturday afternoon and night,
leading to low accumulations generally under a half inch, although
localized areas may see snowfall accumulations around an inch. This
may lead to slick, icy roadways Saturday evening into Sunday
morning.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Tuesday afternoon as warmer and drier conditions return to the
region.

Beyond Tuesday, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is
low.