A deep upper level trough developed over the western United States. This produced strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains as it moved into the central Rockies.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A deep upper level trough developed over the western United States. This produced strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains as it moved into the central Rockies.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 11:47 AM CST, 2 hours 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1147 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022
...New AVIATION...
See 18z aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022
Winds will be gusty out of the southwest this afternoon.
Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening but
confidence on timing and location is low at this time. Winds will
weaken a little and become more westerly this evening. Low
visibilities will be possible with blowing dust and TSRA this
afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 219 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022
Today will feel more like early April than mid to late February,
with highs this afternoon expected to reach into the 70s and lower
80s for most of the area. Upper 60s are expected across the
mountains, with lower 90s possible through portions of the Rio
Grande Valley in the Big Bend. These warm temperatures will be aided
by downsloping westerly to southwesterly winds, which will become
gusty by this afternoon, with very windy conditions expected across
the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon into tonight, where a High
Wind Warning remains in effect. The High Wind Warning has also been
expanded to include the Davis Mountains, where strong winds are
expected to develop this afternoon, particularly across the higher
elevations, with a Wind Advisory in effect this afternoon until early
evening across adjacent areas from Eddy county southward to the
Marfa Plateau and Davis Mountains Foothills. A tightening gradient
in the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a deepening trough across
the western CONUS will be the driving force behind today's warm and
windy conditions, with a shortwave embedded in the aforementioned
southwesterly flow expected to result in thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening for portions of the area. High
resolution guidance pegs convective initiation in the 21-22Z (3PM-
4PM CST) time frame, with storms possible from near the I-10/I-20
split northeastward across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. The
best chance for storms will be across the central and eastern
Permian Basin, and given dry low levels but midlevel lapse rates of
7-8C/KM, the main concerns will generally be lightning and gusty
downburst winds. Further east toward the Western Low Rolling Plains
where moisture will be a bit greater, some storms may become strong,
capable of producing isolated large hail or damaging wind gusts,
mainly early this evening. Unfortunately, despite thunderstorm
potential, rainfall amounts would generally remain light and have
little to no impact on the ongoing drought across the region. Of
additional concern today are critical fire weather conditions that
will develop across northwestern portions of the area late this
morning, persisting into early this evening. Additional information
on this can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below.
Storms will exit the area to the east coincident with the departing
shortwave, with a mild night ahead as temperatures only drop into
the 40s and lower 50s for most, with 30s possible across the
mountains and portions of Southeast New Mexico and the northwestern
Permian Basin. Another warm, dry day will then follow on Tuesday
with highs in the middle 60s west to middle 70s east, with 80s
possible across portions of the Lower Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys,
still well above normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022
Tue evening the focus will be to n where Arctic air will be making a
grand entrance, arriving s of the I-20 corridor by 12Z/Wed. Post-
frontal winds at around 20 mph will have a sharp bite with wind
chills in the 5-15 degree range between 4 AM-1 PM Wed across the PB
and much of Lea Co. The airmass will be very shallow up to around
1.5kft AGL and with isentropic ascent around 295k a shallow layer
will saturate across a good part of the PB by 15Z/Wed. Forecast
soundings still favor -FZDZ/-FZRA/sleet as there just is not any
mstr aloft to work with and the saturated layer between 3-3.5 kft
AGL is above 0C. Models are a little more generous with QPF Wed
12Z-18Z, at best light ice on exposed objects. As far as temps go,
they will likely fall after 12Z/Wed and could even fall into
low/mid 20s across the ne-e by 15Z and stay there the rest of the
day. As mentioned the cold air will be too shallow to cross the
mtns, this will make for a striking difference in temps from the
cold e side/warm w side. Into early Thu AM models again are a
little more generous than previous runs with light QPF. Not sure
what to make of that as the shallow moist layer referenced above
will actually be even more shallow Thu AM, but the T-Td spread
will be less. We continue to favor -FZDZ and/or FZFG. By then
roads and exposed objects will had time to become very cold and
thus we see light ice accumulations more likely Thu AM than Wed
AM, minor impacts are possible. On Thu the main mid-level trof
axis will swing across and attempt to push an assocd Pacific front
ewd. Guidance is persistent showing that temps will increase to
the L50s-U50s as far e as GNC-MAF-Big Lake, while the ne CWFA
remains in the 40s. Cold dense air will win again though and surge
back in overnight making Fri AM cold, teens-L20s across the PB.
Surface ridging does not want to loosen its grips Fri or Sat and
highs are expected to remain well below normal. Sun-Mon
transitions to warmer, but still cool except far sw reaches of the
CWFA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022
Near critical to critical fire wx conditions are expected across
SE NM plains and the far nw PB today. Said wx conditions will
coincide with critically dry fuels across SE NM to increase IA
potential to high and significant fire potential to moderate.
Chaves Co will have the strongest fire wx and RFTIs will max out
at 5-6 there for a few hrs this afternoon. We continue to be
concerned about the potential for high based showers/storms late
this afternoon and evening. We expect that any showers/storms that
do develop will stay just s of SE NM and mainly impact parts of
the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, and they will have the
potential to result in a few dry lightning strikes and gusty and
erratic outflow winds. The RFW remains in effect for SE NM plains
and the far nw PB. Elevated fire wx conditions are likely Tue
across much of the area with dry and unseasonably warm
temperatures ahead of a strong cold front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 77 46 75 26 / 40 30 0 10
Carlsbad 76 38 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 86 52 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 83 46 79 40 / 10 10 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 63 37 62 38 / 10 0 0 0
Hobbs 73 37 69 25 / 0 10 0 0
Marfa 75 32 70 33 / 10 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 79 45 75 29 / 30 20 0 10
Odessa 78 44 73 31 / 30 20 0 10
Wink 80 40 74 32 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for Davis Mountains
Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn
and Highway 54 Corridor.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for Dawson-Gaines.
High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Tuesday for
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for Davis
Mountains.
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea.
High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
of Eddy County.
&&
SHORT TERM...80
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...80The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1011408, 1011409.