A strong system and associated cold front over the Great Plains weakened considerably as it approached middle Tennessee on November 5, 2022, due to a general lack of instability across the area. Still, a strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of this storm system allowed for winds to increase throughout much of the day ahead of the line of rain showers.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
A strong system and associated cold front over the Great Plains weakened considerably as it approached middle Tennessee on November 5, 2022, due to a general lack of instability across the area. Still, a strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of this storm system allowed for winds to increase throughout much of the day ahead of the line of rain showers. Wind gusts between 35 to 50 mph were common, and this resulted in a few reports of downed trees and tree limbs as well as power outages, particularly across the Nashville metro area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 5, 11:45 AM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 946 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Radar shows rain continues to moves across Middle Tennessee this morning in association with a dying QLCS that brought numerous tornadoes to northeast Texas and surrounding areas last night. No severe weather for us thankfully as there is little to no instability, so just some rain and maybe a lightning strike or two is expected. Main impact today will be the gusty southerly winds, which have currently subsided somewhat after being peaking a few hours ago. However, winds are expected to ramp back up on the backside of the precip area with several obs across west TN/west KY showing gusts of 40-50 mph. No changes were made to the wind advisory, and only notable change to forecast was to adjust temperatures and pops slightly for today based on latest obs. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Shy of some breezy conditions, it's relatively quiet at forecast time across the mid-state. However, this is going to come to an end today as our latest weather system is on the doorstep. Fortunately, with a lack of instability across Middle TN, this system will be fairly benign. In fact, the worst of it will probably be the gusty winds ahead of the rain. The surface pressure gradient will tighten to the point of providing occasional wind gusts around 40 mph through most of today. A Wind Advisory is already posted and will run through 4 pm CDT. As far as the line itself, it's already showing signs of weakening. Warnings were being posted as it approached the Mississippi River, but have since ceased. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible west of I-65 as the line crosses the TN River, but expectations are for this to become a rain event only for most of the area. I wish I could say we were going to get a bunch of rain, but QPF remains relatively low, with every at or below a 1/2 inch. This will help with current drought conditions, but definitely won't be a drought buster. The bulk of the rain with this system will come today, but some will linger into Sunday, especially for our eastern and southern counties. I don't think this will be all day Sunday, but definitely through the morning hours. The question will be how the boundary reacts Sunday night and into the day on Monday. Several models show light rain/drizzle/cloudy conditions into Monday. Will bump NBM PoP/Sky slightly to show this. Nothing of great consequence, but it doesn't look like a nice, sunny day by any means. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Those nice, sunny days should return by mid-week, though. High pressure will take over across the region starting Tuesday and both Tuesday and Wednesday will provide afternoon highs in the upper 70s once again. Our next chance for rain looks to arrive in the late Thursday-Friday time frame next week. Extended guidance is not in great agreement of the evolution of this pattern -- in fact, the latest Euro just came in dry for Middle TN -- so we'll carry just a low PoP for now and adjust through the week. It does look like whatever moves through here during that time will at least bring more fall-like temperatures with it for next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Mainly MVFR cigs are expected this taf cycle with brief VFR at times. A band of mainly light showers was moving across the area accompanied by gusty winds over 30KT at times. Most of the showers and gusty winds will end by 06/00Z. Cigs may improve for a time in the late afternoon and evening, but MVFR cigs will return for the late night through Sunday. Isolated showers will linger at CSV through the rest of the taf period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 54 75 59 77 / 30 10 20 20 Clarksville 46 74 54 75 / 10 0 20 10 Crossville 59 73 58 73 / 60 30 20 20 Columbia 53 75 59 77 / 30 10 20 20 Cookeville 59 74 60 76 / 60 20 20 20 Jamestown 59 73 58 73 / 70 30 20 20 Lawrenceburg 56 74 60 78 / 40 20 10 20 Murfreesboro 56 75 59 78 / 40 20 20 20 Waverly 48 74 56 76 / 10 0 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson- Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence- Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett- Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson. && UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....13
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 225 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-060730- Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson- Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury- Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee- Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- 225 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph will gust to around 40 mph this afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued and is valid through 4 pm CDT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 27
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was downed on the corner of Bay Drive and Saundersville Road near Green Hill. Wind gusts in the area at the time were generally between 40 and 45 mph.
Large tree limbs were downed at the corner of Chas Boulevard and Shute Lane southwest of Green Hill. Wind gusts at the time were generally between 40 to 45 mph.
A Twitter tSpotter report indicated a carport collapsed on Hoggett Ford Road in southern Hermitage. Damages are estimated for the carport.
Strong winds in the Old Hickory area downed a few trees and caused power outages.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, November 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1056194, 1056195, 1056196, 1056197.