The Potter Wildfire was started by lightning and was first reported at 0900 PDT on 07/31/22. As of 0530 PST on 08/01/22, the fire covered 400 acres and was 0 percent contained.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The Potter Wildfire was started by lightning and was first reported at 0900 PDT on 07/31/22. As of 0530 PST on 08/01/22, the fire covered 400 acres and was 0 percent contained. 0 structures were lost, and nothing had been spend on firefighting activities.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 7:25 AM PST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
825 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022
.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some cloud cover across
portions of the East Side and at the Coast in the form of Cumulus
build ups (and marine Stratus at the coast). West of the
Cascades, there is a layer of smoke across the area. Air quality
sensors show that the smoke has largely settled into Siskiyou and
Jackson Counties. Wind forecasts are expected to blow the smoke
southward during the day and allow it to filter back into the
valleys during the night. With the smoke complicating the
forecast will be continuing the deep dive to see how things play
out with respect to temperatures/thunderstorms/and winds. Minor
changes were made to the forecast this morning, particularly to
add additional sky cover east of the Cascades and to add fog to
the marine waters.
More details about the forecast are available in the previous
discussion below. -Schaaf
&&
.MARINE...Updated 825 AM PDT Sunday, 31 July, 2022... Fog,
locally dense, will continue to generally plague visibility within
10 nautical miles of the coast through at least Wednesday
morning. Meanwhile, low pressure centered west of the Northern
California coast will bring mostly southerly winds south of Cape
Blanco and variable winds north of there through Monday afternoon.
Light north to northwest winds are then expect Monday night
through Wednesday as the offshore low drifts westward. North winds
are then likely to increase, possibly reaching advisory levels
Thursday afternoon. This is expected to build steep seas to
advisory levels Thursday evening into Friday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 431 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022/
SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will persist today, then lower
slightly Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper low just off the
coast of southern Oregon and northern California will remain near
stationary. This will result in continued chances of
thunderstorms and showers over the next few days. Additionally,
with southerly winds aloft, smoke from wildfires in Siskiyou
County, California will continue to move northward into Oregon.
KEY POINTS:
*Excessive Heat continues today across portions of southern
Oregon and northern California. Stay hydrated, take frequent
breaks in air conditioning, find cooling stations, and check on
your friends and neighbors if they do not have air conditioning.
Remember, never leave pets or people in cars.
*Thunderstorms may produce occasional to abundant deadly cloud to
ground lightning, gusty and erratic winds, and small hail.
*Lightning may ignite new wildfires. More information is available
in the fire weather section below.
*Smoke from the McKinney fire will likely complicate the forecast
in regards to heat and thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION...An upper level ridge over the region will continue
to result in hot temperatures for inland areas today.
Temperatures are expected to be similar to yesterday. Of note,
smoke from the McKinney Fire in Siskiyou County, which moved
northward into portions of southwest Oregon, resulted in lower
afternoon temperatures than originally anticipated for portions of
Josephine, Jackson and western Siskiyou Counties with highs in
the 99 to 105 range. Expect a similar pattern today with smoke
moving north from western/central Siskiyou County into southwest
Oregon and resulting in reduced daytime heating. Still the heat
will be significant today and the smoke may prevent folks from
finding relief. Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories remain
in effect through this evening. Please see the NPWMFR for more
details. The upper ridge is forecast to weaken on Monday with
temperatures lowering slightly.
A chance for thunderstorms and showers will continue today and
Monday as an upper low remains off the coast of Southern Oregon
and Northern California. As the low remains remains in position,
it will result in southerly mid-level moisture and increased
instability and CAPE across the area. Weak upper level
disturbances ahead of the low and a diffluent pattern aloft will
help trigger storms. Models continue to highlight the best chance
for thunderstorms to occur during the afternoons and into the
evenings for areas from the Cascades east and across portions of
Siskiyou County (mainly southwestern, central and eastern
Siskiyou). Smoke from the McKinney fire may limit heating and
instability over northwest Siskiyou and into Jackson and Josephine
Counties. However, given an overall favorable pattern, expect
some isolated thunderstorms across these areas, so have kept a
slight chance for thunderstorms in the forecast. In addition to
afternoon/evening thunderstorms, there is a slight chance for
thunderstorms and showers during the overnight/morning hours,
especially tonight and Monday morning.
Gusty, erratic outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms along
with dangerous lightning. Some stronger storms are possible with
localized heavy rain, hail, and strong, gusty winds. Of note, as
precipitable water values increases on Monday, expect increased
rainfall with thunderstorms and chances for moderate to locally
heavy rain in the core of storms. Lighting will still occur
outside the core of storms though where there is little or no
rainfall, which combined with dry vegetation, will result in
continued elevated fire concerns. Red flag warnings and fire
weather watches remain in effect (RFWMFR).
Models and ensembles are indicating the upper low will get cut
off and remain just off the coast on Tuesday. This will result in
a persistent pattern with additional chances for thunderstorms
and showers across inland areas Tuesday.
Then, models are indicating that the low may shift slightly
farther offshore on Wednesday but remain situated off the coast of
northern California. Under this pattern, we may see southerly
moisture continue to move up into the area and bring a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening
through the mid to late week period. The position of the low will
play a significant factor in the details of the forecast though.
Given that it is a cut off low and that models have shown
significant differences from run to run, confidence is low on the
details of the forecast for this period. Another factor in play is
a hurricane off of the Baja California area, which is forecast to
gradually move northward and weaken. This may allow additional
moisture to move up around the low and possibly into the area. We
will continue to monitor this portion of the forecast and update
as confidence increases in the pattern.
AVIATION...31/12Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR conditions in marine stratus will
continue to impact areas along the immediate coast and over the
coastal waters through much of the TAF period. However there is a
chance for brief periods of VFR conditions at North Bend between 21z
and 02z. Inland, expect VFR, except for areas of MVFR vis in
haze/smoke in the vicinity of the McKinney fire in northern Siskiyou
County and into the south end of the Rogue Valley, up towards
Medford.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this
afternoon and evening. Smoke from the McKinney fire could limit how
far thunderstorms make it into the Rogue Valley, but any storms that
do develop will pose the risk for gusty, erratic outflow winds,
potentially at both Medford and Klamath Falls. -Petrucelli
FIRE WEATHER...300 AM PDT Sunday, 31 July 2022... Hot weather
will persist today with temperature similar to yesterday. Sunday
into Monday low pressure offshore and a broad southerly flow will
continue to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area. The best chance for scattered
thunderstorms will be from the Cascades east as well as into
portions of southwest and central/eastern Siskiyou County. Areas
of smoke from McKinney Fire are expected to bring a reduced a
potential for thunderstorms to the Siskiyous and to Jackson and
Josephine Counties, with storms likely to be be isolated vs
scattered for these areas. Storms will trend from being a mix of
wet/dry (today) to increasingly wetter (Monday) as temperatures
come down and moisture levels rise. Strong, gusty outflow winds
are possible near any thunderstorms that develop today and Monday.
Additionally, the threat for showers and thunderstorms may linger
through late this week due to the low offshore becoming nearly
stationary. -CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday
for ORZ617-623-624.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for ORZ617-621>625.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ030-031.
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for
ORZ024-026.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ023.
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for
ORZ025-027.
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for
ORZ028-029.
CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday
for CAZ280-281-284.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for CAZ280-281-284-285.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ084-085.
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for
CAZ080>083.
Pacific Coastal Waters...
None.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Potter Wildfire was started by lightning and was first reported at 0900 PDT on 07/31/22. As of 0530 PST on 08/01/22, the fire covered 400 acres and was 0 percent contained. 0 structures were lost, and nothing had been spend on firefighting activities.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1038356.