Drought in Oklahoma, July 1 to 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the 06Z TAF period. Cold front is
moving south through the TX Panhandle and by 07-08Z, all sites
will have northerly winds behind the passing cold fronts at 10-20
kts. Winds will stay out of the north before shifting back to
south and southeasterly between 21Z and 02Z Saturday with wind
speeds of 10-20 kts. VCTS conditions possible at all TAF sites.
Specific of timing of potential thunderstorms will be addressed in
next TAF issuance.

Meccariello

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night...

Visible satellite shows cu forming in the southern TX Panhandle
this afternoon. It also shows the clouds intensifying in NM over
the mountains. With westerly flow aloft, the clouds, turning into
thunderstorms, will have a chance at making it to the northwest
Panhandles this evening. At the surface, observations show a low
pressure center in the northwest Panhandles this afternoon and a
cold front up in central KS/CO. The front should arrive in the
northern Panhandles later this evening and push perhaps to
Amarillo by early morning. The front will retreat during the day
Friday. Where it ends up will dictate where storms coming off the
mountains tomorrow will cross the northwestern Panhandles.
Forecast soundings are a bit onion like for tomorrow, which means
there is some potential for storms to produce severe winds. This
potential will need to be monitored closely tomorrow. Not all CAMs
agree on storms crossing the Panhandles, but many do so precip
chances remain around 50-60 percent in the far northwest. Temps
for the rest of the Panhandles will be in the mid to upper 90s
with Palo Duro Canyon reaching around 100 degrees thanks to
southerly flow at the surface.

Beat

LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...

Overall, the long term is active with several rounds of
shower/thunderstorm potential essentially every day. These will be
our typical summertime activity with slow moving unorganized
clusters of storms. Pinpointing these exact locations will be
difficult for not only rain chances but severe weather chances as
well. On most days the west and north will be favored for
precipitation. The main threat with any storms would be damaging
wind gusts if they collapse. Otherwise, near normal temperatures
are expected so it will be hot through early July with mid to
upper 90s common. That said, a few locations could reach the
triple digits around 100-102. Lastly, since its the holiday
weekend, we will have increased outdoor activity with potential
fireworks, so care should be taken to prevent any fire starts.

An H5 high will park itself over the southeastern CONUS through
most of the extended. This will place the Panhandles under
southwesterly to zonal flow nearly every day. Forecast soundings
show a relatively dry column, weak lapse rates, and overall weak
flow in the wind field. In this type of pattern, storms will be
very unorganized and updrafts will have difficulties maintaining.
Very little instability will be available as well. However, given
the inverted-v temperature profiles, this will allow for rapid
cooling via evaporation through the dry layer which could lead
damaging wind gusts from a downburst. When and where this occurs
will be difficult to forecast in addition to the rainfall in
general. A lot of areas could use the rainfall, so we are hoping
these precipitation chances increase, but given the weak flow
pattern its going to be difficult to get any widespread rainfall
through extended forecast.

Guerrero

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

29/2

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
244 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-010900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
244 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this evening across the far northwest
sections of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Any storms that
develop are expected to remain below severe levels at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles Friday afternoon through Sunday evening, and then
again Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The probability of
widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
857 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

OKZ001-TXZ001-010300-
Cimarron OK-Dallam TX-
857 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Cimarron and
northwestern Dallam Counties through 1000 PM CDT...

At 856 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Kenton to 10 miles west of
Wheeless to 3 miles north of Clayton Lake State Park. Movement was
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Boise City, Texline, Kenton, Wheeless, Black Mesa Park and Felt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10235 3649 10234 3633 10304 3650 10304
      3650 10300 3697 10300 3700 10298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 314DEG 17KT 3698 10290 3677 10307 3663 10332

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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