Heat in Arizona, July 1, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
958 AM MST Fri Jul 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will be present each
afternoon and evening into the weekend across southeast Arizona
with plenty of moisture in place. High temperatures will remain
near to slightly below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...Quite the active morning along the International Border
through the western half of Cochise County where an MCV is
meandering westward. This will be the focus for convection today
aided by a weak upper level impulse ejecting north from Sonora.

Storms are already developing along the western bands of the MCV
with a CU field developing further west. In general, CAMs are in
good agreement of the activity ramping up around the MCV,
especially the west/northwest side. Therefore, made substantial
increases to POPs across the favored areas and the Tucson Metro.

Analyzing the morning sounding shows a juicy environment with
little capping inversion. Once temps reach into the middle to
upper 90s, storms should initiate by late morning into early
afternoon.

As storms develop and push west, increased uncertainty exist.
There are at least a few solutions showing convection moving
across central Pima county along OFBs through the evening.

As with any Monsoon day, an isolated severe thunderstorm is
possible with localized flash flooding possible.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 0220AM...Radar showed a few lingering
showers near the International Border south of Sierra Vista early
this morning. Should see this activity dissipate by daybreak
before redevelopment later today. Recent HRRR solution showed
pretty decent coverage in rain chances for today despite no
visible large scale weather features to enhance thunderstorm
development. The overall flow pattern with a broad ridge of high
pressure over the southern United States and a trough of low
pressure along the West Coast will remain in place through the
middle of next week. Thereafter, ensembles favored the ridge of
high pressure building northward and possibly becoming centered
over the Four Corners region by Friday. This would suggest a
better coverage of showers and thunderstorms toward the end of
next week. Otherwise, more of the same with high temperatures
remaining near seasonable readings.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/18Z. SCT-BKN clouds at 11k-14k ft
AGL, with ISO -SHRA/-TSRA thru 01/18Z. Between 01/18Z and 02/04Z,
SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-9k ft AGL and SCT to NUM SHRA/TSRA.
Diminishing clouds and shower/storm activity aft 02/04Z. Erratic
SFC wind gusts and outflows in excess of 40 kts possible with TSRA
during the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, SFC wind
generally less than 12 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during
the afternoon and evening hours and variable in direction at other
times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the next
several days keeping RH values above critical thresholds. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening,
potentially lingering into the late night hours some nights. Any
storms will carry the threats of lightning, strong wind gusts and
localized flooding.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
726 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 WNW ARIVACA          31.64N 111.47W
06/30/2022                   PIMA               AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SASABE ARIVACA RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AT
            MILE POST 2.

&&

KD