As deep layer moisture increased ahead of an approaching cold front on July 1, 2022, low level convergence on the leading edge of moisture advection coincided with lift associated with the right entrance region of a 95KT upper jet. The result was multiple clusters of thunderstorms moving across the southern half of central PA through the afternoon, several of which produced isolated areas of…
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The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
As deep layer moisture increased ahead of an approaching cold front on July 1, 2022, low level convergence on the leading edge of moisture advection coincided with lift associated with the right entrance region of a 95KT upper jet. The result was multiple clusters of thunderstorms moving across the southern half of central PA through the afternoon, several of which produced isolated areas of straight line wind damage. Another line of convection developed closer to the cold front during the evening in NW Pennsylvania and moved southeastward, producing isolated straight line wind damage until about 1:00 AM EDT on July 2. The downburst potential was enhanced by a layer of dry air in the environment above 750 hPa, which resulted in DCAPE values of 1200-1300 J/kg through the day and into the evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 10:28 AM EST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1128 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity will peak to end the workweek and begin the month of July. Expect a few bouts of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight and Saturday (across primarily the southeast half of the state) as a cold front slowly drifts southeast through the Commonwealth. Dry conditions and comfortable humidity will return for later Saturday afternoon and remain with us right through the 4th of July. More showers and storms will return to the region by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... 1110AM/1510Z: Isolated to scattered convection ongoing from the Laurel Highlands/south central Alleghenies toward the mid Susq Valley late this morning. Storms holding below severe limits so far with ltg and brief downpours. Additional storm clusters tracking east from far SW PA/PBZ CWA should reach the Laurels by early afternoon with more storms expected to develop coincident with afternoon heating/instability. SPC 13Z SWO update expanded the MRGL risk to include the western 3/4 of the CWA and they will likely add the rest of the CWA with their next update at 1630Z. Hot/humid conditions will support robust MLCAPEs 1500-2500 J/kg with effective bulk shear increasing to 25-35kts. This environment should be supportive of locally strong/damaging wind threat and some hail. Previous Discussion Issued: 527 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Areas of cirrus were noted spreading east across the northwest half of the state early this morning. Otherwise clear skies and comfortable temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s were noted across the northern half of the state, while readings between 65 and 70 degrees were found across the south. Our extended spell of nice summer weather with minimal clouds and comfortable humidity will transition quickly to noticeably higher humidity today as a surge of much higher PWAT air between 1.5 and 2 inches surges NE from the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. Coinciding with this moisture advection will be increasing llvl convergence and enhanced meso-b scale uvvel with the approach of the thermally direct right entrance region of a 95KT upper jet, stretched from the Upper Midwest to Southern Ontario Canada. High-resolution guidance indicates the potential for some showers and storms to develop along the Laurel Highlands around midday (15-16Z) and push east-northeast during the afternoon. The combination of diurnal heating and moisture advection should fuel isolated to scattered storms with pockets of SBCAPE around 2000 j/kg. Hodographs favor multicell clusters of TSRA today with fairly weak and unidirectional shear at low levels and moderately strong veering SW-WSW flow flow aloft. Given areas of PWAT values in the 1.5-2 inch range, and locations seeing a few TSRA could stick out on the Dual Pol storm total rain imagery with over an inch of rain. Afternoon max temps today will be 3-5F higher than Thursday. More noticeable will be the rise in dewpoints by 7-12F DOD from yesterday with it becoming quite sticky over the southern half of PA where TDs will be in the upper 60s to around 70F. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Late today and early tonight, a cold front over the Upper Midwest and Northern Glakes will drift gradually SE across Lake Erie and enhance the Lake Breeze that should be located within 10-15 NM south of the I-90 corridor. The second round of convection concentrated across the NW half of the CWA will be supported by falling heights and moderately strong deep layer shear (>= 30kts). This may lead to a few stronger storms and SPC has maintained a Marginal outlook for severe weather across northwest PA where isolated damaging wind gusts and some hail up to to penny size are possible. An upper level shortwave will cross the region overnight tonight helping to push the aforementioned slow-moving cold front farther southeast into the Central Mtns. A good amount of cloud cover in the deep layer warm advection pattern ahead of the Cfront and PWATs surging to +1SD, will should support an increasing probability for showers and possible t-storms. Rainfall totals across the area through Saturday morning will be highest in northwest PA, with basin averages of a quarter to half and inch likely. Farther south and east, many places will likely stay dry tonight, however a passing shower or thunderstorm could bring a quick 0.10-0.25 inch of rain. Showers along the slow moving cold front should diminish for a few to several hour period Saturday morning in wake of exiting shortwave. Afterward, diurnal heating will lead to the regeneration of deeper convection Saturday afternoon along and south of the front that should be located over the SE half of the forecast area. This area will be on the southern edge of stronger mid-level flow/deep layer shear, yielding the chance of organized severe convection. SPC has maintained its D2 MRGL/SLGT risk SWO covering the southeast 1/2 of of CPA. Some brief heavy downpours are also possible coincident with WPC MRGL ERO covering roughly the SPC SLGT area. Rainfall totals of up to three quarters of an inch are possible in southeast PA with a tight gradient farther north and west along/behind the cold front. Convection shifts to the southeast Saturday night and out of CPA as the frontal zone pushes to the south of the MD line. The latest trends in model guidance continue to favor the cold front sagging southward more quickly, which would favor prevailing dry conditions for most fireworks displays on Saturday night. Cooler/less humid air will return to north central PA overnight with minTs back down into the mid- upper 50s by Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... On the large scale, southern CONUS upper ridging and a more zonal flow up across the northern states (along the southern edge of the westerlies) should persist through much of next week. Although we may see increased heat and humidity push into the Commonwealth for perhaps a day or two at a time, the above pattern should keep the most persistent and searing heat well to our south and west. Despite persistent and record-setting heat across much of the contiguous US over the past month, the northeast has remained in a favorable pattern for seasonable temperatures will humidity values remaining quite comfortable most of the time. As for the daily sensible weather, an initial push of drier air from the north should signal rain-free and seasonably warm weather for Sunday and most of Independence Day. The majority of our medium-range guidance suggests that a warm frontal boundary makes a close enough approach to PA by Tuesday morning and stays around through mid-week for an increased chance of showers or thunderstorms. A ring of fire pattern appears likely across the Ohio Valley, though it seems like it will stay largely south and west of our area. Would not be surprised to see several mesoscale convective systems cascade through the Ohio Valley across the Appalachians of West Virginia and Virginia next week, but we should stay on the cool and less active side of the weather pattern. Once again, no excessive heat is anticipated, with daytime highs generally ranging from the upper 70s-lower 80s over the northern mountains, to the mid-upper 80s south of I-80 for the first part of the week and then cooling off to be in the mid 70s to low 80s for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak high pressure will keep dry weather across the region with VFR conditions into Friday morning. A cold front will still be well to the northwest on Friday, so any showers and storms would develop within a prefrontal trough or along terrain features Friday afternoon and evening. Additional storms will develop closer to the cold front Friday night into Saturday. We do carry VCSH at many of the TAF sites starting late Fri. Outlook... Fri night-Sat...More numerous showers and storms expected with mainly MVFR reductions. Sun...Improvement north, with lingering showers possible south. Mon-Tue...Mainly VFR except for restrictions possible in isolated afternoon and evening convection. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Banghoff NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Banghoff SHORT TERM...Lambert/Banghoff LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff AVIATION...Martin/Colbert
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1230 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-021630- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Cambria-Somerset-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- 1230 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A few strong thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ036-056>059-063>066-021630- Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- 1230 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and heavy downpours are possible Saturday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ019-025>028-034-035-042-045-046-049>053-021630- Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia- 1230 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and marginally severe hail are possible Saturday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. MRS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1153 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022
PAZ033-034-011615-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-
1153 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND
NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...
At 1152 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Windber, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Ogletown around 1155 AM EDT.
Osterburg, St. Clairsville and Blue Knob State Park around 1215 PM
EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include New Paris, Blue Knob
Ski Resort and Woodbury.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4023 7885 4025 7879 4024 7866 4026 7864
4028 7865 4031 7856 4029 7850 4025 7845
4030 7843 4028 7838 4009 7832 4004 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 257DEG 24KT 4016 7874
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
JurewiczSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1245 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022
PAZ024-025-033-034-011715-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-
1245 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN BEDFORD...NORTHEASTERN
SOMERSET...SOUTHERN BLAIR AND SOUTHWESTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH
115 PM EDT...
At 1245 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Portage to near Windber to 12 miles
southeast of Belmont. Movement was east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Portage and Blue Knob State Park around 1255 PM EDT.
Queen, Lilly and Ski Gap around 100 PM EDT.
Bedford, St. Clairsville and Osterburg around 105 PM EDT.
New Enterprise around 110 PM EDT.
Hollidaysburg, Duncansville and Martinsburg around 115 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Tunnelhill, Spring
Hill, Cassandra, Hopewell and New Paris.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4006 7885 4024 7877 4043 7890 4052 7831
4036 7821 4030 7826 4023 7824 4018 7817
4001 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 267DEG 34KT 4038 7879 4025 7870 4014 7875
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
JurewiczThe State College radar (KCCX), 69 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:04 UTC.
24 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple trees and wires onto Old Route 22 in far western Blair County.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees in Allegheny Township along Sugar Run Road.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down several trees and wires along Kettle Road near Blackie Lane east of Altoona.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph snapped several large trees along Scotch Valley Road near Mulligan Drive just west of Canoe Creek State Park.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires onto Bellmeade Drive north of Altoona.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees in Tyrone Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires in Franklin Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph damaged trees near the intersection of Route 350 and Route 45 in Franklin Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph snapped a tree, with a large limb landing on the roof of a house in the 2600 block of Stoverstown Road near Spring Grove.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter-sized hail in New Holland.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a tree on wires on Charles Street in Dalevue.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires east of New Holland.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple trees and limbs in Centre Hall, with one limb damaging a roof on a house. A nearby barn roof was also damaged by the wind.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down numerous trees and wires in the Manor Ridge area.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires across Barrens Road south of Stewartstown.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires along Route 472 in Quarryville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires near Green Springs Road.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires near Wakefield.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires along Pine Creek Drive east of Orwigsburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down numerous trees and wires along Ogdensburg Road between Blossburg and Ogdensburg, closing the roadway between Morris Run Road and Route 414.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires on Route 36, closing the roadway near Pine Run Road.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires onto Route 350 in Taylor Township, closing the roadway north of Bald Eagle.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a tree across the 1800 block of Axemann Road (Route 144) south of Bellefonte.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires along Route 118 north of Unityville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires along Route 654 near Duboistown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1027854, 1027855, 1027856, 1027857, 1027858, 1027859, 1027860, 1027862, 1027864, 1027853, 1027865, 1027869, 1027872, 1028490, 1028491, 1028492, 1028495, 1028496, 1028557, 1028563, 1028565, 1028992, 1028990, 1028994, 1028993.