Drought in Iowa, July 1 to 31, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1043 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

KEY MESSAGES:
1. Front almost through the area; Storm risks remain low today.
2. After a really nice Friday, more unsettled for holiday weekend.
3. Nearly daily rain risk, but predictability remains low.
4. Signs pointing towards above normal temps into next weekend.

THIS AFTERNOON: Surface front continues to press southeast early
this afternoon, now extending from Wayne northeast to Windom at
2pm. Persistent mid-lvl warm advection has kept clouds in place
ahead of the front, really limiting surface heating and likely
limiting potential for surface based convection tied to the
boundary. Further northwest of the front, temperatures have risen
into the upper 80s to lower 90s, but these temps will hold steady
or even fall slightly as thick cirrus moves across the area and
cold advection begins.

THIS EVENING:  Will maintain a very low PoP along and ahead of the
advancing 925:850mb front this evening, as it's unlikely the surface
front will produce convection across the CWA. Synoptic lift also
remains very weak, so anything that could develop may not last
very long. Hazards would be marginal hail and some near severe
winds.

OVERNIGHT: More widespread convection should develop over the Front
Range of Colorado and into western Nebraska as a mid-lvl shortwave
enters the Plains.  This convection will then slide eastward across
Nebraska and into western Iowa through daybreak, with a low end
risk that weak warm advection on the 700 mb axis could spark a few
daybreak showers near the Missouri River valley. Any activity
should remain weak. Further north, the biggest question will be
how much impact cirrus will have on overnight low temperatures.
Could see lows drop into the lower to middle 50s north of I-90
given very dry dew points moving southward this afternoon.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: It's looking like a great Friday in the area
thanks in part to high pressure moving into eastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota. Winds will stay light through the day, with
temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 80s.  A pretty common
theme for the holiday weekend will be the persistent westerlies that
bring nearly a daily shortwave into the Plains.  One such wave is
likely to develop scattered activity over the western Dakotas Friday
afternoon. This activity will then slide east and southeast down an
elevated instability gradient Friday night.  Most guidance support
this cluster of storms weakening as it runs out of meaningful
moisture, with just the NAM remaining a bit of a stronger outlier.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

SATURDAY-MONDAY: As troughing begins to dig into the eastern Pacific
for the upcoming holiday weekend this will leave the area a bit more
susceptible to a nearly daily risk for convection. How so?
Fragments of the upper trough and or weak vorticity emanating out
of the monsoonal flow will arrive nearly daily. The difficult part
of the forecast is that models will struggle significantly
picking up on this energy. This means that we'll end up with a
nearly daily 20 to 40% risk of rain each day. If there were times
to perhaps focus higher PoPs, it may be focused on the nocturnal
time periods into Tuesday morning (especially Sunday night).
Temperatures aren't expected to rise too far above seasonal
normals, but could rise back into the 90s for the 4th. With
minimal shear each day, severe weather risks should stay on the
lower side.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:  Mid-lvl heights slowly begin to rise through the
middle of next week, but no significant change in the expected
conditions is likely. Still an increased likelihood of subtle
waves traveling through the quasi-zonal flow, driven more by the
nocturnal LLJ, and temperatures rising near or slightly above the
seasonal normals. Perhaps more noticeable will be the rise in dew
points each day, typical of early July, which may leave the air
feeling more muggy by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period with light
northeasterly winds slowly turning south and westerly Friday
morning. Low VFR stratocu and perhaps isolated showers or storms
are possible near KSUX through Friday morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...BP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
415 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

IAZ001>003-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ038>040-050-052>070-
011200-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-
Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
415 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, southwest
Minnesota, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south
central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-011200-
Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-
Dakota-Union-
415 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms from
6 pm through midnight. A strong to severe thunderstorm or two is
possible with the main threats with the strongest storms being hail
to the size of a quarter and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.