A strong mid-level trough of low pressure over Georgia tracked northeast into the Carolinas early on the morning of the 17th of March. At the surface, a surface low tracked northeast along the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain during the early morning hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A strong mid-level trough of low pressure over Georgia tracked northeast into the Carolinas early on the morning of the 17th of March. At the surface, a surface low tracked northeast along the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain during the early morning hours. A warm front also was tied to the system. This area of low pressure provided deep lift and moisture for periods of widespread rain and some heavier storms capable of flash flooding. There was one report of flash flooding in Wake County in the morning of the 17th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 17, 7:03 AM EST, 12 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 803 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will track northeast through the Coastal Plain of NC this morning and off the srn Mid Atlantic coast this afternoon. Weak high pressure will follow for tonight and linger into Friday, in advance of another frontal system that will cross the region on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday... ...Complex pattern with multiple hazards unfolding across cntl NC... A mid/upper-level low centered over the Savannah Basin near KAGS at 07Z will move newd across the cntl Carolinas this morning, then offshore the srn Mid Atlantic coast between 18-21Z. A preceding, well-defined vort max/MCV over Robeson Co. NC, enhanced by deep convection and earlier-splitting supercells with hail over SC, will continue to lift generally nnewd across the NC Sandhills and ern Piedmont - just ahead of the primary mid/upper low approaching from the Savannah Basin. Shortwave ridging will follow and expand across the Southeast and Carolinas this afternoon and tonight. At the surface, the primary and strongest surface low was analyzed beneath the MCV, around 1011 mb over Robeson Co. NC. at 07Z, with a slightly weaker, 1012 mb low centered near and just north of KAGS. The primary low is forecast to track newd through the NC Coastal Plain, in the vicinity of I-95 through ~16-18Z. A preceding warm front will continue to retreat slowly nwwd across ern NC, immediately ahead of the low. Weak high pressure will follow and extend across cntl NC tonight. Heavy, deformation rain and elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue to track newd with one to locally two or more inches of rain and with an associated risk of flash flooding over the Sandhills and ern Piedmont --in the vicinity of US 1-- this morning. Meanwhile, additional storms may develop immediately preceding the low as it tracks through the Coastal Plain; and point forecast soundings suggest these would occur with only minimal ML CINH and may consequently become rooted nearer the surface, with generally weak MLCAPE of up to 500-750 J/kg. Beneath 50-60 kts of sswly mid- level flow, veering and strengthening winds from the surface to between 20-30 kts at 1 km per regional VWP data over ern NC, will support an environment supportive of mini supercells capable of producing an isolated tornado or strong-damaging wind gust this morning. The deformation rain and overcast will gradually move newd and yield to afternoon clearing from the southwest, with an atypical high temperature distribution ranging from lwr 70s across the srn piedmont to lwr-mid 60s across the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain. Clearing and calm tonight will favor strong radiational cooling and radiation fog, which will likely become dense, through Friday morning, with lows mostly in the mid-upr 40s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM Thursday... A southern stream shortwave over the southern Plains Friday morning will lift northeast into the mid/upper MS Valley through the day Friday, pushing the sub-tropical ridge from the mid-Atlantic to off the East Coast. The wave will then continue to lift northeast into and through the Great Lakes Fri night and Sat before being absorbed into the northern stream low over eastern Canada Sat night. The upper trough will linger over the area through at least Sat night. Meanwhile at the surface, the Bermuda high ridging through the area Fri morning will get pushed east over the Atlantic as the low lifts from the southern Plains, northeast into the mid-MS Valley on Friday. As the low progresses slowly east-northeastward through the OH Valley Fri eve/night, a warm front will lift through central NC, while the cold front approaches from the west. The front should generally be along the Appalachians by Sat morning. As the parent low continues slowly northeast through the Great Lakes/Northeast on Sat, the cold front will begin moving through central NC. Guidance varies on how quickly the front will move through the area, but the current consensus is that it should be through the central NC by Sun morning, with high pressure centered over the Deep South starting to build in behind it. Rain should hold off Friday morning, with increasing chances for showers from the west Fri night/Sat. The SPC has portions of the southern Piedmont, Sandhills and Coastal Plain in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms through 12Z Sat, with continued potential across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain on Sat. The severe threat is still fairly conditional, but the primary concern would be strong winds. Have kept mention of thunder in the forecast, albeit with limited windows. Increasing warm advection ahead of the cold front, especially in the wake of the warm front Fri night through Sat, will result in continued mild temperatures. Highs generally in the low 70s NW to upper 70s SE expected Fri. Lows Friday night will also be mild and well above normal in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures Sat/Sat night will be highly dependent on the timing of the front, but based on current timing, highs ranging from 70 degrees NW to 80 degrees SE are possible while lows should drop into the mid 40s to low 50s in the wake of the front Sat night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM Thursday... The upper trough will swing through the region Sun/Sun night. The sub-tropical ridge will progress east from the Plains on Sun to over the East Coast by Tue night. Meanwhile out west, a strong southern stream low will develop over the Desert Southwest Sun/Sun night, remaining in phase with the northern stream trough as it moves eastward into the southern Plains Mon and Tue. The model solutions vary with the evolution of this system as it moves through the CONUS mid-week, but there is a consistent signal of strong moisture advection from the Gulf ahead of it. At the surface, high pressure will build through the region and off the Carolina coast by Mon night where it will sit through Tuesday. A low and attendant cold front will move through the southern Plains Mon/Mon night and into the lower MS Valley Tue/Tue night. Forecast uncertainty increases significantly from Tue night onward. Generally expect a warm front to lift through the area ahead of the approaching cold front. Expect temperatures to be near to slightly above average through at least Tuesday. Dry weather should prevail through Mon night/Tue, with increasing chances for rainfall Tue night/Wed. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 AM Thursday... Widespread LIFR-IFR conditions and rain, and isolated thunder at RWI and RDU --all accompanying an area of low pressure now tracking through the NC Coastal Plain-- will move northeast and yield to lifting and scattering to VFR across cntl NC through the afternoon. Clear and calm tonight will favor the development of radiation fog and associated very low overcast, with the relative highest probability of occurrence/coverage at RDU/RWI. Outlook: VFR conditions will return Friday before low pressure brings another chance of convection and flight restrictions Friday afternoon through Saturday. Dry VFR conditions are then expected through the rest of the outlook period. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...MWS/Green
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 420 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 NCZ007>010-023>026-040>042-075>077-084>086-088-181200- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Franklin- Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke- Cumberland- 420 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will result in one to three inches of rain, locally higher, throughout the morning. Flash flooding may result, particularly in urban areas in the Triangle. Areas of dense fog will be possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-083-181200- Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson- 420 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Areas of dense fog will be possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ011-027-028-043-078-089-181200- Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne-Sampson- 420 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Areas of dense fog will be possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
747 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022
NCZ026-027-041-042-171245-
Nash NC-Johnston NC-Franklin NC-Wake NC-
747 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022
...A strong thunderstorm with gusty winds and torrential downpours
will impact portions of southwestern Nash, east central Wake, north
central Johnston and southeastern Franklin Counties through 845 AM
EDT...
At 745 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Zebulon, or 15 miles north of Smithfield, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds gusts of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Nashville, Zebulon, Bailey, Bunn, Wendell, Spring Hope, Middlesex,
Castalia, Pilot and Emit.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall of one half to one inch of rain in fifteen to
thirty minutes is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3608 7802 3598 7786 3574 7816 3573 7819
3573 7818 3572 7819 3562 7831 3568 7836
3569 7846 3612 7821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1145Z 215DEG 24KT 3574 7833
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
26The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 19 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:12 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The onramp from South Dawson Street to Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard was closed due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, March 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1013191.